Personally, I can't wait for the pendulum to swing. People seem to have forgotten that it's far easier to launch a company when everyone else is panicking and running for safety. You're competing with fewer players, it's easier to find talent and there's more of a focus on starting actual businesses that generate sustained, predictable revenue.
Sounds great to me.
On the other hand: I don't think Facebook "bubbles" will impact IT in a big way. Theoretically, if FB drops dead tomorrow - tech won't suffer that much. It will hurt companies that do business with FB, some marketing people like BuddyMedia etc. But there will be something else to do. And tech market is not based on FB, FB is a niche.
Of course he's a believer in LinkedIn and owns shares. His company was acquired by them. I'd like to know if he actually purchased more shares than what he was given with the acquisition.
The public has said it's overvalued at $100 billion.
That indicates to me that we're not in a bubble.
Also, speaking of News Corp, let me point out that a big part of how Facebook killed MySpace was MySpace was not able to come anywhere near the performance, or pace of evolution of Facebook. It's also worth noting that the previous market leader, Friendster, failed because they couldn't fix their performance problems when they were a tiny fraction of the size Facebook is now.
There's no need to mince words: Facebook is slinging serious scalability sauce that could only be developed by a leading technology company.
Another way of seeing this, is through how much engineering goes on their scaling problems.
On the stock market, where the valuation process is nearly continuous, almost 50 percent of days are down days (the daily drift is tiny in comparison to the standard deviation).
What has happened is that the Facebook stock has gone from an environment with artificial support to one without it. It has nothing to do with whether there's a bubble.
Which company will be here in 20 years...
The late-90s bubble was frothier, with all the talk of a recession-proof "New Economy" (oddly, most people now long for the Old one) and the massively overvalued technology stocks. Even still, there was a real underlying. The Internet really was changing the way people do business in a rather permanent way. The reason for the bubble was that people overestimated how soon certain changes would arrive.
This bubble doesn't have much of an underlying. I'd even argue that there isn't one. Facebook is a decent product and has provided a lot of value to its users, but it's not as earth-shaking as the Internet, and these "Facebook's tapeworm" startups like Zynga are insults to the millions of people trying to build things that are real. Also, the current climate of extreme social openness (where people want to broadcast their careers and locations without thought to whether they really want people to have access to that data in 5 years) is going to end, and the "cool" social startups will either be dead, or successful and "uncool", within a few years.
I think we need at least these two major brands going thru the same fate for the social networking bubble to be affected.