>We don’t have to worry about powerful language models like gpt-n, we have to worry about digital people who can think a million times faster than von Neumann. I imagine that when something like this speaks to you all information flow would basically be from the future. It could beat any market with relative ease, could know thousands of years of future events before breakfast.
That's nowhere near a necessary or obvious conclusion. Even if it could "think a million times faster than von Neumann", there's no guarantee it could "beat any market", seeing as any market is contigent on thousands of non-predictable factor (from some earthquake in a manufacturing area, to a war breaking out, all the way to consumer unpredictability).
Even less so for "thousands of years of future events".
What is described is a magical prophet, not a super-intelligence.
And of course the idea that there's no diminishing returns limits to thought and you could "think a million times faster than von Neumann" or have an IQ of 10000000 or whatever is also highly dubious.
Markets are about information processing. The information set is huge and price update has bandwidth limitation. GPT-n like systems perhaps can increase that bandwidth by orders of magnitude. That is in some sense "seeing the future".
That's nowhere near a necessary or obvious conclusion. Even if it could "think a million times faster than von Neumann", there's no guarantee it could "beat any market", seeing as any market is contigent on thousands of non-predictable factor (from some earthquake in a manufacturing area, to a war breaking out, all the way to consumer unpredictability).
Even less so for "thousands of years of future events".
What is described is a magical prophet, not a super-intelligence.
And of course the idea that there's no diminishing returns limits to thought and you could "think a million times faster than von Neumann" or have an IQ of 10000000 or whatever is also highly dubious.