>Van Sabben immediately left Iran after successfully sabotaging the country’s nuclear program, the researchers concluded. He died two weeks later in a motorcycle accident near his home in Dubai. Nothing points to foul play, the Volkskrant said after speaking with people at the crash scene.
Definitely killed by either Dutch/Americans/Saudis or Iranians.
I think he was a simple AVID informant who may have thought he had planted a audio/video recording device on behest of AVID and not the virus.
A local news outlet states that he was an 'avid motorcycle rider' meaning he was an expert at riding motorcycles. Such a rider has low chances of getting into an accident than average.
An avid motorcyclist is just somebody that motorcycles a lot, while their per mile chance of having an accedent might be lower, their overall chances are much higher.
To add on to that, it's a very "childish" word, something a little kid would say. It's like you did something without your mom's permission, implying a child-like sneakiness or mischievousness.
Yeah it's not the official name for it anyway. Just the one busied by the parliament members. The official name is Commissie voor de Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdiensten (committee for the intelligence and security services). I'm not sure how the nickname even ended up in such a newspaper article.
I can kinda imagine they would leave significant multilateral geopolitical developments out of that by the way. There were many members in those days, including from small opposition parties. Maintaining secrecy would be difficult, especially since the Dutch parliament has a very bad track history (almost every year the "troonrede" - similar to the state of the union in the US) is leaked by someone beforehand.
These days they only seem to have 5 members from the biggest parties.
> An anonymous executive at the AIVD said that the government may have deliberately not been informed of the operation due to the potential political consequences
Pretty bad when intelligence services customarily operate above the law and don't even tell the government they're supposedly beholden to.
Pretty bad for the rest of us, but not bad for the people in government who want plausible deniability for actions taken by the espionage services. I would assume that every government has this, at least to some extent, don't you think?
It would be great for governments, if that’s how it worked in European countries.
The Netherlands specifically had cabinets (i.e., governments) fall due to the responsible ministers not knowing what their agencies were doing, with snap elections as result.
In fact, in the last decade or so this happened quite often. Accountability in The Netherlands isn’t just based on knowing something and still doing the wrong things, its often also based on “should’ve known something as the person responsible for the agency in question” and not being in the know.
In terms of accountability, in both cases the person in question is considered to have fucked up.
So the plausible deniability angle, is not really a benefit. Provided it comes out during that person’s tenure, although in rare instances even current office holders have been held responsible for the lack of knowledge of their prior office holders, based on the idea that the current office holder should’ve been aware such a thing happened and should’ve informed parliament post haste upon learning about it.
Yes but this "independence" regularly leads to abuses. In France the secret services are strongly suspected to be behind several major political hoaxes against their president (Markovic affair against Pompidou, Japanese bank account against Chirac). I won't even get into what the CIA is suspected of...
There is a podcast about how this works inside AIVD (civil intelligence) and MIVD (military intelligence) unfortunately it's in Dutch, but if you speak Dutch and are interested: https://open.spotify.com/show/6wZZ2ojf2XxwgfYT649wpO
They describe the process on how things can be approved and what needs to be done for that. But this thing sounds like it was more an MIVD (military) thing and I can imagine there isn't nearly as much legal due process on that side.
As the first generation after Portugal's dictorship, I think it is even worse how naïve people happen to be regarding intelligence services, even in democratic countries.
The whole point is to do the dirty work it isn't supposed to be happen.
I’m curious as to why that is. I understand that the regime is loathed by plenty but why should a portion of humanity be excluded from nuclear weapons when their enemies have it?
Genuinely asking because I’m curious, and not trying to flamebait.
Because they love to destabilize the region through their proxies. Look at their good work now: Yemen at war (they sponsor Houthi rebels), Israel at war (they sponsor Hamas and Hezbollah) and look at the state of Lebanon now (they also played a major role in Syria but I wouldn't say they were contributing to destabilising it, ISIS backers and the anti-Al Assad western coalition probably did more harm).
Iran can at least be pressured now with retaliations. Once it becomes a nuclear power, even the US will be forced to trade carefully.
Now some hope that nuclear armed states become "responsible" as a result of feeling safe, and don't sponsor terrorism. But that clearly didn't work with Pakistan (major backer of the talibans, and by extension of Al Quaeda) and North Korea (aggresses South Korea regularly and issues random threats to attract attention).
And nuclear deterrence only works when the parties do no want to die. When their religion tells them it's great to die for Jihad, I don't think their is any deterrence, it's a completely different dynamic.
And with ethnic tensions all over the middle east, and Iran's stated objective to destroy Israel, no one in the middle east is really keen to be threatened by Iran's nukes.
This is by no means to be taken as “Iran is good actually” but this doesn’t seem much different than the US who loves to destabilize regions via proxies.
Current day Iran, as ironic as it is, is a direct product of this. Yemeni Civil war, with the Saudis and UAE propping up the PLC, both proxies of the US, Iran-Saudi proxy conflict with the US backing the Saudis, Israel-Palestine conflict, the former is heavily sponsored by the US, etc, etc and that’s just that region and current day.
There’s the whole Arab Cold War that originated a lot of the current day issues because the US didn’t want the USSR gaining influence because of scary socialist (yet secular) leaders gaining popularity in a lot of countries.
The same motivation lead to, what is euphemistically called “interventions”, by the US in Latin America, Africa and Asia.
Again, ironically, a good chunk of what is currently deemed “evil” is a direct product of these interventions like Iran, because it often either backfires or comes back to bite the US in the ass.
> Now some hope that nuclear armed states become "responsible" as a result of feeling safe, and don't sponsor terrorism. But that clearly didn't work with Pakistan (major backer of the talibans, and by extension of Al Quaeda) and North Korea (aggresses South Korea regularly and issues random threats to attract attention).
Funny you mention Pakistan and the Taliban, the latter very much a product of the US with the aid of Pakistan. Pakistan has been an important strategic ally to the US on and off, but the Islamization of Pakistan is again a direct result of US interventions, not in the least the US’ role in the 1977 coup.
North-Korea is a bit of an outlier and doesn’t fit the theme that well because of some complex pre-Cold war Japanese fascist influences and while there’s a kernel of truth in the anti-US propaganda they tell their citizens, based on the war crimes committed by the US that killed 20% of their population, it’s an entirely different beast for another time.
> And nuclear deterrence only works when the parties do no want to die. When their religion tells them it's great to die for Jihad, I don't think their is any deterrence, it's a completely different dynamic.
I think you make two main mistakes in this part of your comment and it comes across a little bigoted.
The first mistake is that you have this notion about a religion, a caricature if you will, and you’re applying it to this situation as if the religion you speak of is one big monolith, which it isn’t.
The other one is best described as underestimating the will to live of the people in power, regardless of whatever propaganda they might disseminate.
To put it directly: I don’t think the current leadership of Iran is any more eager to die then you or I.
Personally I’m in favor of total nuclear disarmament of all parties involved.
But until such a time, I don’t think it’s morally better for one side to have nukes over another side. All sides think they’re the paragon of virtue and have reasons to dislike the other.
All sides involved are also sovereign nations and as such none of them have an inherent right to inhibit the others when it comes to arming themselves imho.
Especially when taking into account that none of the main players on the stage have clean hands.
I asked an Iranian coworker if the Iranian government is serious or if it's just a bad translation when we hear them call America and Israel "the Great Satan". Apparently they are entirely sincere about that.
If this was a game of telephone, yours would be the mildest interpretation I can imagine of my conversation went with my coworker, but my main impression from them was the Iranian theocracy sees the US as the actual literal devil incarnated.
Ah, ok, I thought you were suggesting what Iran thought of the US, I didn't realise it was an old quote from a famous person.
Looking up the quote, Regan was talking about the USSR? If so I think it may be stronger than that sentiment, but I'm not 100% sure owing (in addition to the previous point about games of telephone) to not having lived through the worst of the Cold War — and the small bit I did live through before the USSR collapsed was entirely in the UK and my experience as a child contained more fear of the IRA than the USSR as the IRA were in the news while the USSR were, (like the Klingons that were a thin analogy for them), only in films and on TV.
yes, but regaining democracy is a hard battle. So, when you destroy it in the first time, it is not a surprise that warlords keep getting control of power till by some random fluctuation, the tide changes. In western world, it took almost 300 years for democracy to be stabilized.
US also helped current regime when it first gained power.
If you're a random terrorist/military group and opposes the west, you will get automatically sponsorship from Iran. It's quite concerning what Iran would do if they had nukes
> If you're a random terrorist/military group and opposes the west, you will get automatically sponsorship from Iran.
No, you won't.
Now. If you are either an Islamist group opposing Israel specifically, and/or a specifically Shi’a Islamist group opposing Israel or any Sunni-dominated Arab government, then, yes, your odds of getting Iranian support arr pretty good.
They are not supporting ISIS because it's a Sunni group, it's because ISIS is very much anti Shiites, that Iran doesn't have a choice but to fight them, too. Hamas is Sunni and Iran is perfectly fine with that.. Al Qaeda is Sunni too, and while they are not best buddies, it's enough for Al Qaeda to be anti west for Iran to support them through hidden channels.
I do resonate with this perspective. Iran could be the most evil group within humanity but that doesn’t mean she shouldn’t act rationally and acquire weapons her enemies have.
Because they should lose their conflicts, because they would do bad things if they won.
This isn’t like, a game, where we want all sides to have an equal chance of winning?
If a robber comes to your house armed with a knife, and you have a sword with good reach, you don’t toss the robber a sword out of some sense of sportsmanship.
There is a difference between Russian and American deterrent use of nuclear weapons and a North Korean and Iranian wish to have nuclear weapons as a tactical option. Using nuclear weapons as a threat in international interactions is far crazier than the Russian / American self defence stance.
Still in principle I think we should strive for nobody to have nuclear weapons, but given that that is far away the next best thing is to not let any new actor add nuclear weapons to their arsenal.
Careful with that analogy. Russia has been talking about using nukes as part of their attempted conquest of Ukraine.
I agree with your general point though.
(I guess that’s another reason to not want more countries to get nukes: they might seem reasonable now, but they could be batshit insane by the time you start drawing your pension.)
The second Iran government has access to nuclear weapons, they're going to nuke Israel and that's not going to be the end of it!
I remember watching the news a couple of years ago, The president of Iran at the time said we don't have any problem with the Israeli people, it's only the Israel government, the next day Iran's supreme leader said, Israeli people are also responsible and we condemn them!
these people don't even care about their own people, in Iran's last protest, they basically killed thousands of high school and college kids!
Asking questions to gain a better perspective ≠ flamebait. Plenty of people have their own reasons to hate the regime. It doesn’t matter to me personally since I have no stake in Iran or her politics.
I don’t care much for Iran or its neighbours. If you’re framing Israel as the victim here, it probably does have nuclear weapons. I suppose a follow up question is: why is Iran evil for having a secret nuclear weapons program and Israel isn’t for its program?
Because Israel isn’t run by terrorists who openly call for genocides and have shown they’re willing to go any mile to achieve their extremist delusions.
Can’t believe people try to place Israel and Iran on the same pane when the latter is run by extremist psychopaths that fund mass destruction across the Middle East.
I’m sorry I don’t want this to spill into a debate about Israel but saying Israel isn’t genocidal is disingenuous.
In this last conflict so far there’s been 1.4K Israelis killed while 23k Palestinians killed. It’s disproportionally high on the Palestinian side. The majority are civilians. I couldn’t care less why this is so: military bureaucracy? Racism? Dehumanization of the opponents? But the numbers clearly paint Israel as the country “run by terrorists who openly call for genocides and have shown they’re willing to go any mile to achieve their extremist delusions”.
Moral relativism refuses to die. A democratic society has done some bad things, therefore a homicidal theocracy with medieval attitudes towards women and gay people gets to be morally equivalent?
How does this argument keep coming back? It’s obvious that line of reasoning leads to just might-makes-right, if we’re all so morally equivalent.
> But the numbers clearly paint Israel as the country “run by terrorists who openly call for genocides and have shown they’re willing to go any mile to achieve their extremist delusions”.
No, they aren't. Hamas invaded first and triggered the conflict.
Anyone who tries to equivocate Israel, the sole prosperous democracy in the Middle East, with Iran, a theocracy whose biggest export is mass destruction, is heavily misinformed at best and at worst a whataboutery propagandist.
Hamas isn’t a country it’s a terrorist organization. It didn’t invade, it terrorized.
Anyone who ignores disproportionate, egregious civilian murders to explain their perspective that Israel is good makes a better case for a misinformed whatabouting propagandist.
That said, I genuinely don’t want this to be an Israel vs. Palestine conversation and more a conversation about why shouldn’t even “evil” theocracies have a right to defended themselves?
I think that countries with an imperialistic or aggressive neighbor should have the nuclear weapon, but this countries should be democracies, otherwise an insane or fanatic dictator/regime can just use it even if it will wipe out his country since he might think they go to heaven and get their rewards there.
I understand that countries that already have their weapon do not want the smaller countries to get it, and a lot of people from big countries are OK if small countries get genocided if it prevent ww3 or if it keeps the bills down.
Except you know, Iran wasn't actually developing nuclear weapons. They were not even building the infrastructure for enrichment. They had a deal with France to have nuclear power in Iran, France would handle all fuel handling. This whole activity would be fully monitored under the IAEA. Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program and is signatory under the NPT.
Then the US used its political power to prevent any of that from happening. Only then did Iran slowly start to develop their own infrastructure.
Together with Israel the US started a huge political campaign trying to convince everybody that Iran was building nuclear weapons, despite there not being any evidence for that. It was pretty much the universal assessment of the CIA and friends that Iran didn't have a nuclear weapons program. In fact the only evidence ever found that there might be something came from Israel, that evidence was incredibly flimsy and many security services didn't accept it as real.
That Israel btw, who not only has been claiming Iran was 'just about to have nuclear weapons since the 90s'. Literally for 30 years, Iran has been 'just about about to have' nuclear weapons. And that the same Israel who IS NOT SIGNED TO NPT and has illegal nuclear weapons. They very likely have stolen nuclear secrets from the US and other countries.
Israel also is conducting a 'the US should invaded Iran' marketing campaign for 30 years. They only went along with Bush idiotic Iraq war because Bush wanted to go after Syria and Hezbollah after that (and eventually Iran). Remember when the US government also was spouting propaganda about WMD back then?
But by all means, lets freak out about Iran when there is a literal rough nuclear state in the region. Iran now is under the most advanced nuclear monitoring system in the history of humanity, and still people are freaking out about it. Talk about propaganda being effective.
But yes, we don't want anybody to have nuclear weapons, but and nuclear weapons could have been prevented by some basic diplomacy. Instead the US made the population of Iran suffer an incredibly amount, and caused billion in damages (not to mention infection lots of computers around the world). And Israel was busy assimilating any Iranian nuclear scientist they could find.
> Israel's close friends are worried its military campaign in the Gaza Strip is putting at risk the country's long-term safety, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in an interview that aired on Thursday.
Please take this in the nicest way: If thats what you took away from my post you might want to evaluate how much narratives have affected your reasoning skills.
I think you might be a bit hung up here on the word software which in your defence is not the correct word here.
Replace it with “operation” and it’s not at all a crazy number to suggest that an incredibly complicated multi year multi national intelligence operation to disrupt a covert nuclear weapons program inside of an actively hostile nation who have a serious counterintelligence and counter espionage apparatus ended up costing that amount.
You end up coming to the conclusion rather quickly that it’s actually great value for money.
While not at all about this particular operation but if you want to hear someone who actively ran another incredibly successful nuclear non proliferation operation inside of CIA I’d recommend checking out this interview with perhaps the “spookiest” CIA person I’ve ever seen https://www.youtube.com/live/AFnfTDbcPOA?
If a Payroll system can cost 2-3 billion (see phoenix Canada), which is basically a CRUD, ledger and business rules - something we’ve already done 1000s of times.
They probably add the costs of test equipment which I presume they had to procure and even destroy several times to make sure the virus worked.
Definitely killed by either Dutch/Americans/Saudis or Iranians.