Nabiullina at the CBR has always been hard for me to read. (From memory: before the SMO, her policies seemed too conservative and restricted credit for SMEs.) So why did the CBR raise the guiding rate so drastically? Theories abound: a knee-jerk reaction to the RUB's depreciation compared to other major currencies or the intention to curb expected inflation due to next year's social budget. But IMHO a relatively weak RUB is clearly advantageous given the balance of trade and fiscal recettes are indeed higher.
