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I don't think the dichotomy is as extreme as you make it out to be. What will likely happen, and what is already happening in Apple world, is a merging of elements between the pointer model and the touch model. A touch-oriented UI can work just fine with a touch pad, as OS X Lion hints at. Meanwhile, you can buy a key board for your tablet, and for typing up documents while out and about, that works just fine.

What is really likely to go the way of the dodo, at least in the office productivity area, are mice. There is pretty much no good reason for mouse-oriented UI's these days.

>no good reason for mouse UIs

As someone who frequently uses applications like Illustrator, Autocad, Sketchup, etc. I'd be very interested to hear how you'd qualify that statement.

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