For the rest of it, see books like "Legacy of Ashes" by Tim Weiner, or "Acid Dreams: The Complete Social History of LSD: The CIA and the Sixties". A lot of that is about CIA recruitment and influence operations, which is perhaps not the kind of 'tradecraft' the CIA likes to popularize, e.g.:
I understand this document is from 2009, not secret, and probably contains information known elsewhere.
Still, what is the intent of the CIA in publishing this on the open web? I assume they would be able to distribute this to US nationals even in other orgs through internal networks.
My reasoning is that this, to people not as well versed on the subject, indicates that the CIA shares anything that it doesn't absolutely need to keep hidden from the public. It indicates that they are trustworthy.
Also, everything in there is somewhat "common knowledge" as in if you sat down for 4 hours thinking on the subject you'd probably get most of whats written here. So this has little impact on risk - anyone that would be a serious risk doesn't need this, so it's a neat read for the public instead.
Among other possiblities: working with independent assets for whom some modicum of tradecraft is advisable, but who would not able to attain standard clearances, and for whom the fact that the content is openly available online might itself serve as plausible cover should it be determined they've viewed or accessed it.
There's also the open source (software, not intelligence) model of many eyes and being able to achieve open review of techniques.
Its always struck me as a little odd that their recruitment (at least, their public recruitment) is focused on young people, new grads, etc. I wonder why they dont publicly try to recruit people who have been in industries or domains for years, eg pick up people working at Qualcomm who already have good reason to be traveling across the world and meeting people.
Public recruitment typically happens at university, which is dominated by young people.
Older people who show up at the university job fair or get “encouraged” by faculty with connections get recruited just the same.
In fact, they’re not recruiting 20 year olds, they’re more likely to recruit people in their late 20s or even 30s who have some real life experience and travel under their belts.
Caveat: apparently service in the Peace Corps and certain other NGOs will disqualify you for Officer duty. At least that’s the claim, backed up by several ex-officers.
One consideration is that hiring people at the start of their working lives minimizes the number of people they need to trust with sensitive information. Another: the younger the person, the less averse they tend to be to risk their lives.
They might do for specific jobs, but you want them nice and fresh for a career path. Too much time out in the world fosters the sort of independent thinking that's a liability in that line of work.
Isn't most public recruitment aimed at young, new grads? Is there a "mid-career come work at Goldman Sachs" recruitment pitch they put out to the general public?
I for one am quite happy that they're unable to make their "brand" look better.
The other day I wondered to myself what would happen if all of the secrets held by agencies like the CIA or MI6 were to be exposed, all at once. I doubt it would be bad for the likes of you or me.
On the contrary: my guess is that it is a method for people to familiarize themselves with the whole topic of tradecraft, knowing that ALL countries have put great effort into exactly this in recent years.
There's just so many spooks and bad actors about. Having some familiarity makes for a more educated populace who are going to be more wary of being manipulated, so there is really no reason to try and reserve this information for an elite. Because the bad actors are very grateful when you do: they will prosper in a field of targets all of whom are super naive.
People think this, but it is still highly effective.
Say you want your adversaries to use pencils instead of pens to write their secret notes. You publish information on the risks of pens and how they leak information on an obscure corner of the internet and seed it to a small forum or two. That gets picked up by a government worker in Germany and they put it into their recommendations. That document then gets stolen by the Chinese. Both of these get shared with Iran. The materials are then leaked and you have the Snowden's of the world shouting from the rooftops the importance of using pencils.
While I see what you mean, I can't think of any example right away that are touted by people like Snowden - I see there were many honeypots on crypto, TOR and "encrypted" phones, but other than maybe VPNs I wouldn't know what was shared this way.
Regardless, they have an interesting but relatively sordid history.
Its probably just to drive interest for recruitment since tensions are escalating geopolitically and they are probably finding their projections show they are understaffed. Skilled labor isn't as easy to come by as corporations make it out to be (with everything being replaceable).
Anything published like this would be considered a poison the well attack by any ne'er do wells.
Personally I prefer the bureaucratic sabotage manual the OSS (the predecessor of the CIA) published during WWII, to advise Nazi-occupied workers on how to slow business to a crawl. Which, funny enough, sometimes reads like a description of bad management practices in general!
> Saddam failed to cooperate with UN inspectors because he was continuing to develop weapons of mass destruction.
Apparently this "analysis" was written in 2009, a good 6 years after the start of the Second Iraq War, and still the CIA followed the political manoeuvre of not challenging their leaders' lies about Iraq's WMD.
This is one of the most vulnerable points of any "intelligence" agency, i.e. they're at the whims of those holding actual power in any given State.
I love the explanation as to what 'really' happened.
>If Iraqi authorities had destroyed their WMD stocks and abandoned their programs, they might refuse to fully acknowledge this to the UN to maintain Iraq’s regional status, deterrence, and internal regime stability.
How about
> If the current US Administration needs to invade Iraq for their domestic political agenda and requires a narrative of existing WMD stockpiles. They will ignore any evidence that counters this, and even create a completely fictional narrative to justify the invasion.
Sadam tried to be ambiguous about having WMDs so he could used them as a deterrent without the problems with actually deploying them (kind of like Israel does, but less credible). Sadam was violating UN orders in regards to WMDs, but there was no automaticity so the US was not actually supposed to go in. I think it's plausible the UN would have gone in anyway if the US had waited.
I think fundamentally, if you have incomplete information and have to make some actions or judgements, either you are:
1. doing things to reason about or uncover more useful datapoints to increase certainty
2. you are accepting the probability that you are right/wrong at face value
The direction in which you decide to uncover datapoints is the "bias" that they are talking about. This process if further influenced by institutionalized assumptions or priors you are working with.
I really don't like lists like "Strategic Assumptions That Were Not Challenged" because they are factually true but also reek of survivorship bias.
I would think that when people in the CIA manage to understand international developments well enough, they typically become highly critical of US policies and then leave...
Ah, this missed the mark since the domain is all political/state related. I saw the mental liquidity story from today and it reminded me of an old book they published about how to think. That one has better theory based talk. This article has too many references to conflicts so it's kind of distracting from the interesting stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vault_7
For the rest of it, see books like "Legacy of Ashes" by Tim Weiner, or "Acid Dreams: The Complete Social History of LSD: The CIA and the Sixties". A lot of that is about CIA recruitment and influence operations, which is perhaps not the kind of 'tradecraft' the CIA likes to popularize, e.g.:
https://coffeeordie.com/charles-manson-cia