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Jared Diamond: A Reply to His Critics (daviskedrosky.com)
91 points by rufus_foreman on June 9, 2023 | hide | past | favorite | 160 comments



When I first read GG&S in a university anthropology course in 2000 or 2001, I immediately disliked it. The reason was not because I thought it was racist or imperialist— I don't think it is. Instead, I disliked it because it tried to explain the shape of history with an overly simplistic model that tossed out every nuance which didn't fit the thesis.

Now that I'm older, I understand that this is what pretty much every popular treatment of anything must do, and Diamond was just more successful at it than almost anyone else. Is that to his credit? As a writer, maybe. It's ultimately a complaint about the danger of arguments which are so simple, elegant, and easily understandable that they suck all the air out of the debate, not against him or his book per se.


>it tried to explain the shape of history with an overly simplistic model that tossed out every nuance which didn't fit the thesis

I think it's worth quoting Friedman from his essay on positive economics[1]

"In so far as a theory can be said to have "assumptions" at all, and in so far as their "realism" can be judged independently of the validity of predictions, the relation between the significance of a theory and the "realism" of its "assumptions" is almost the opposite of that suggested by the view under criticism. Truly important and significant hypotheses will be found to have "assumptions" that are wildly inaccurate descriptive representations of reality, and, in general, the more significant the theory, the more unrealistic the assumptions (in this sense).12 The reason is simple. A hypothesis is important if it "explains" much by little, that is, if it abstracts the common and crucial elements from the mass of complex and detailed circumstances surrounding the phenomena to be explained and permits valid predictions on the basis of them alone. To be important, therefore, a hypothesis must be descriptively false in its assumptions. it takes account of, and accounts for, none of the many other attendant circumstances, since its very success shows them to be irrelevant for the phenomena to be explained"

Diamond is often criticized for the simplicity, or geographic determinism of his argument but from the standpoint of an empirical science this is a strength. What matters is only the predictive power of a theory, not whether it is nuanced, realistic or representative. People sometimes seem to take almost offense to reductive theories in the social sciences.

Btw one recent development to really test Diamond's theory is I think the development of tropical wheat developed in Brazil. If this works and drastically uplifts the global south I'd count that as a big piece of evidence in his favor.

[1]https://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/fachbereich/bwl/pruefungs-st...


The availability of suitable species for domestication always struck me as the most interesting part of his argument, as it's not one I'd seen before - but strangely it's the one that's not captured by the title "Guns, Germs & Steel" (which are, I suppose, the main proximate reasons why Europeans ended up decimating/overpowering populations elsewhere in the world, rather than more interesting fundamental reasons why Europeans got to the point they could travel the world possessing said items well before any other candidate civilizations did. Accepted, "germs" is related to ability to domesticate various animals, but hardly captures the full set of advantages that came from animal and crop domestication). I never thought his explanations of why it couldn't have been China or India instead were that compelling though, not does he bother to explain why certain European nations became far more successful as colonial powers than others (e.g. why were Germany and Italy so late to the game, and unable to really compete with Spain/the Netherlands/Great Britain as far as colonisation efforts went).


Germany and Italy weren't even countries until the late 19th century.


Hence demonstrating there was at least one other key factor behind which nations/empires were able to successfully establish overseas colonies - but arguably that itself was not an "ultimate" cause that was out of the control of earlier civilizations (in the way availability of species suitable for domestication was). If the Roman empire hadn't collapsed the way it did the world would surely look very different to how it does today (I wouldn't be writing this in English for a start!). I don't think that's something Diamond addressed in GG&S, and even in Collapse I don't remember any serious discussion of how it might be ultimately and primarily due to geo-environmental factors (for a start, the empires that replaced it over the following centuries were operating in very similar ecologies/climates). I don't think Diamond would insist that the pattern of historical development of specific nation states was largely due to the ultimate causes he tries to identify for overall European hegemony, but it would be surely worth clarifying at what scales other factors start to become more important (and what those factors might be).


(Actually the far better example is France - in principle, at the time, it was better obviously placed to achieve colonial domination than Spain or The Netherlands or even Great Britain. The argument seems to be that it was too focused on waging wars within Europe itself to commit itself to overseas exploration etc. But is that an "ultimate", proximate or some sort of intermediate cause?)


> Diamond absolves Europeans of blame for the crimes of imperialism through his geographical determinism, since the conquerors couldn’t help but seize the helpless Americas.

Running through the article is the notion that somehow Europeans were uniquely interested in brutal empire building. I can only infer that such notions stem from never having read history books about other cultures.

For example, "Empire of the Summer Moon", by Gwynne

https://www.amazon.com/Empire-Summer-Moon-Comanches-Powerful...


Yeah. The Mongols were on a summer vacation, the Persian Empire wasn't invading ancient Greece, they were just sightseeing, the Vikings (Scandinavian not central european IMO) were just doing some exuberant boating, the Hans just wanted to sojourn in the Jungles of Vietnam, the Ottomans were just misguided proseletyzers, the Rus were just bored from Winter, etc. The Japanese in WWII were just looking for some iron and oil.

If you have a large empire, chances are there was large scale conquest involved. Likely all "civilizations" involved small scale conquest of tribes.

So the academics are all in arms about Diamond writing a pretty engaging nonfiction book that accessibly integrated a half-dozen historical / political theories into an interesting integrated theory. Was it perfect? Hell no, no way it was. Is there roots of truth in it? There has to be. More than anything, reading the book was thought provoking, because all history taught in schools is basically a bunch of personalities/leaders and battles, and almost no investigation of other factors outside of the human events.

What's also bizarre is reading various modern historical analyses of the Mongol invasions as "eh, they weren't that bad". Like... what?

I'm fully willing to admit European empire building was flagrantly unacceptable from the lens of the modern conception of universal human rights. But that Euros were some especially brutal oppressors/conquerors compared to the whole of human history? Come on. I mean... the Mongols. AND they almost conquered Europe.


For anyone interested, I highly recommend George Carlin (not the comedian)'s podcast series (4 episodes iirc) about the Mongolian conquests. Really interesting.

Also, on the "almost conquered Europe", I always find it quite mindblowing that they almost conquered Europe - with their light reconnaissance force. The main army was waiting while the lighter 10k horse force did some recon. While doing their recon they wiped out the Georgian army which had been preparing for war for years and so was probably the best prepared army in Europe at the time. The rest of Europe was totally unprepared even for that small 10k force.

Luckily for us, soon after, Genghis Khan died and the entire army turned back. Otherwise Europe would for sure have been conquered with no challenge. Luck of the dice.


Yes. Luck. There are a few other posters in this thread that objected to Diamond because he seemed too Euro Centric apologist, the argument being "well why didn't the East win". But sometimes it does turn on a flip of a coin. The Mongols (eastern power) could have won, and dominated, and colonized the world. And we would all be studying how horrible Mongol Colonialism was. Sometimes history does swing on singular events.


>And we would all be studying how horrible Mongol Colonialism was.

that presumes that human culture would have developed the ideas regarding colonialism which we have and which after all are a late developed critique that would probably not have been possible without the ideas of humanism and similar intellectual branches, and the exposure of those ideas to people who were being oppressed by forces that claimed to espouse the same.


You mean Dan Carlin, and his Hardcore History podcast.


Oh yes, sorry, thank you, good correction!


I recommend the Fall of Civilizations Podcast, to pile on with more podcasts.

Their episodes on Aztec and Inca civilizations, that were brought down to large extent by the spanish, they make you notice that what Aztecs and Inca had in common was that they were the regional powers. The podcast mentions the active local conflicts going on while this went down. They were dominating their neighbors, warrning and at this particular time they were the leading powers in their regions.


>But that Euros were some especially brutal oppressors/conquerors compared to the whole of human history?

Kind of. It's like when historians delineate historic genocides with Nazi genocides. Or slavery vs chattel slavery. Functionally they're mostly the same, but the latter was also something new, and possibly worse. Historically, non-european expansionism/colonialism due to large power asymmetries were regional neighbourhood affairs that ended in mass assimilation within a few generations. European, post age-of-sail conquest/oppression was uniquely brutal in suppressing/eliminating indigenous peoples globally, for hundreds of years without any real effort at integration. Generally Mongols worked with traditional administration systems of territories they conquered, if only because it's easier for nomadic culture to embrace settled people's cultures. Post Mongol conquest, Chinese, Central Asian or Persian empires were basically the same "empires" but administered by Mongol Dynasties - they typically levied tax and drafted troops but didn't intervene much in domestic affairs or customs. European colonies expansion was built on proselytize/imposing continental culture, and deliberately avoided integration in their colonies, stretching out a few decades of bloodshed into a few centuries. IMO that makes Euros "especially brutal oppressors/conquerors", not because Euros are inherently more savage but the logic of certain forms of conquest (made possible by confluence of factors) is sometimes bloodier than others.


For those who did not no read the article : That sentence quoted in this this comment above is one of the theses the author of the artcicle is arguing against


I see nothing in his book that claims they were uniquely *interested* in brutal empire building. Rather, they were in a situation to be uniquely *successful* at brutal empire building. Everybody behaved badly, it's just the Europeans were in a position to gain more from said bad behavior.


One of the nice things about Anthropology being a science SHOULD be that there are no moral judgements, just causes and effects. Alas, people cannot help trying to see everything as good and bad, and 100% so in each case.


In addition to being ignorant of history, this outlook where only Europeans can conquer is ironically super racist towards non-europeans. Do they have no agency?


The author needs to look at this in a wider context. GG&S may be defensible, but Collapse is pretty horrible, trying to force environmental explanations at the cost of downplaying European slave raids (Easter Islands) or utter absurdity (Diamond's suggestion that Viking Greenlanders preferred to starve than to eat fish). Diamond had a thesis and forced the facts to fit in the expense of integrity. After Collapse, it made much more sense to look askance at GG&S.


I always get a little suspicious of big nonfiction books arguing some big thesis that arrive with fawning reviews from all the right places and whose authors immediately get crowned as important public intellectuals.

These books often seem to have a life cycle: sensation, canon, “but wait a minute,” and then lastly forgotten.

I figure the initial splash might mean the author just knows the right people in New York. They seem like the nonfiction equivalent of what someone I know once called a “tobadny” which stands for “trendy overhyped book about dysfunctional New Yorkers.” These are the occasional literary fiction sensations about… well… dysfunctional New Yorkers that arrive with gushing reviews in The New Yorker.

A merely very talented author outside the New York scene usually has to wait until they are dead to be noticed.

In our scene the equivalent would be an overhyped overfunded startup run by someone who knows the right people in the Valley that is the hot thing for five minutes. Meanwhile someone in Nebraska who invented a working Alcubierre Drive will never get funding.


This seems more like sour grapes. Is "A Brief History of Time" in this category? Who's to say. There are a ton of non-fiction books that are written for popular audiences that do not make it big. If they are all equal, than all the ones that don't make it should also end up being wrong. That doesn't seem right, why is it only the ones that do become popular must turn out wrong.

This seems more like moralizing on the public being idiots, and so if a book is popular it must be wrong.


“A Brief History of Time” is a standout here, as it’s dealing with really well-defined, well-studied, well-tested physics theories. (Well, except for Grand Unification stuff.)

But Diamond’s work, and other authors that are in this middle-brow reviewed-in-The New Yorker mold, deals with really complex sociology and psychology, which aren’t reducible to equations. (There’s no Lorentz transformation for colonialism.) Malcom Gladwell really comes right to mind here—lot of pop-sci stuff which gets in all the right publications and then ends up being just wrong in all the ways.


I agree his later books were not as good, but this argument is ridiculous - evaluate GGS on its own terms, those don’t change if the author later writes poorer books.


Yeah. If we evaluated every author’s work based on their worst book or theory, we’d have to throw out everything Newton did because he wrote a lot of bunk about alchemy and the occult.

Good thing we don’t do that, because calculus, gravity, and optics are extremely valuable.


Well, when one of the big arguments is whether Diamond absolves European colonialism, and in a later book he does exactly that, that does lead me to assume less good faith even in a previously written book.

[EDIT: Note the title is "Jared Diamond: A Reply to His Critics". While the substance of the post is about GGS, the title is about Diamond. I think his other 'work' is fit for discussion under this title.]


It is hard to tell because in the current political climate, there is such animosity against anybody mentioning human impacts on the 'environment', that someone could just state something obvious, like maybe we should stop polluting so much, and be called a 'woke liberal elitist'.

So is his book Collapse forcing an environmental theory, or are you so against any theory of 'human caused environmental problems', that you can't see past your own bias. It is hard to tell online. I mean, his book was totally about environmental problems, so to criticize it for outlining environmental problems is bit much.

It has been awhile but think the Vikings had more variables, like weather that prevented fishing. And, don't think slave raids negates there were other variables, why can't slave trade and environment both have contributed. So he didn't highlight what you wanted to hear about enough, isn't an argument that slave raids contributed more.


>It has been awhile but think the Vikings had more variables, like weather that prevented fishing

This was categorically refuted by bone analysis showing that Vikings did eat seaborne food[0]. The current hypothesis is that the fish bones were used to feed animals or burnt.

The more important point that the thesis was absurd in the first place. The Vikings were seafarers, and we have no record of any such taboos. You can't invent a food taboo completely against their way of life and with absolutely no written evidence out of thin air. At the very least, there was an extremely high level of proof needed, and Diamond doesn't even try to get near.

Moreover, We have a 5000 years history of human food taboos, and as a rule when people face starvation or just illness, the taboos get shunted aside. Even the fanatically devoted Ghandi compromised and drunk milk. The one exception I can think of in all of human history is Nongqawuse, and even that was: not a food taboo but based on existing faith, encouraged by a foreign power and disobeyed by a non-trivial faction. You didn't get complete extinction even there.

[0] https://www.europhysicsnews.org/articles/epn/abs/2002/03/epn...

As for Easter Islands, there are serious arguments that there wasn't any environmental problem and the population survived well enough (e.g. [1]). More importantly, the Europe slave raids are documented to have carried off a third-to-half of the population, the more educated part. In other contexts of similar casualty levels, downplaying that would be called way worse.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2013/12/09/249728994/w...


Have an upvote. I can't argue the fish.

The settlements did fail though, right? So something happened. Doesn't he also outline poor soil and over-grazing, and the climate change when warm period ended. It is possible that there were enough negative variables that fishing alone couldn't save it. And it is a 26 year old book, so maybe he was speculating on what was known at the time. Like if it did fail, and they were great fishers, what could explain why fishing didn't save them. But, I don't have a citation.

Sorry also, since you have citations and I'm being lazy. But pretty sure there was a counter-counter addendum to the book on Easter Island. He published on his web site a new chapter re-discussing the latest theories on Easter Island. But I read it years ago, so not adding anything of value here. But to defend him, old history books do get revised.


>The settlements did fail though, right? So something happened.

The area was already very marginally habitable for humans. In the same general area, the Dorset Eskimos also died off (in their case, we aren't entirely sure which century that happened), so even specially adapted cultures had serious trouble. Maybe it always had little slack.

If I had to take a very wild guess: What changed was the Little Ice Age making conditions even worse. Maybe plague played a part too (though I can't substantiate that). Eventually enough people died to make the society not work (you need a certain number to maintain a complex society). Perhaps the reminder decided to leave, but with no food stocks the sea journey failed... Or perhaps they died in place, having nowhere to go. Grim either way.

> pretty sure there was a counter-counter addendum to the book on Easter Island. He published on his web site a new chapter re-discussing the latest theories on Easter Island.

Can't find anything on his current website. I'll try more thoroughly later.


Now I can't find link. It must be second edition, not published freely.

From web site, just overview of the updates.

But while searching for this. Found another popular book that had theory that it was rats, and the rats had no natural predator's and ate all the palm tree roots.

EXTENSIONS

Since my book’s initial publication in 2005, information has continued to accumulate about collapses, and about avoidances of collapses. I shall mention here three of these recent extensions, to our understanding of Easter Island, the Maya, and Angkor.

First, I summarize below the striking new evidence that Andreas Mieth and Hans-Rudolf Bork have published concerning the widespread Polynesian felling and burning of trees on Easter Island long before European arrival.

Second, measurements of markers that reflect paleoclimate have provided increasing evidence for severe droughts that contributed to the decline of Classic Maya cities in the Southern Maya lowlands.

Finally, the biggest recent advance (summarized in a new chapter included in my book’s 2011 edition) has been in our understanding of the decline of the Khmer Empire based at Angkor


Yeah, the idea it was rats in the link I gave too. The counter-argument is that it was an ecological problem in the strict sense, but not a ecological problem for humans. The people adapted and ate rats (yuck) among a few other things. It's not pleasant, but it's argued it was stable for a long time.


I had a hard time interpreting the various criticisms from academics of Diamond in a way other than: This goes against our field's dogma, so I will fight it. Ie, I'm suspicious that, given the conclusions he came to, they would argue against it regardless of methods or the strength of his case. Eg, He underplays the role of culture? He's wrong.


I never bought into the claims that Jared Diamond is some sort of racist; he book is plainly anti-racist and anybody who says otherwise probably never read it. Honestly.

That said, some of Jared Diamond's arguments are really lame.. just poorly thought out. For instance, is claim that the use of wheels for transportation is in some way gated by the availability of pack animals. This guy has never used a wheel barrow I guess... of course he has and mentions them much later in his book, but dismissing the point as a "puzzling non-invention". This realization doesn't seem to have him question his earlier assertion that wheels for transportation would only be invented where pack animals are available.

I think it's got nothing to do with pack animals, and the truth is that wheelbarrows, and wheels for transportation generally, are one of those inventions that are obvious only in retrospect. Even after you've invented wheels on toys, it isn't necessarily immediately obvious that wheels could have practical applications as well. A very small handful of people in the history of humanity had this idea and most people never did (and just copied it from other people). It's not because of geography or ecology, just shear dumb luck.


His arguments definitely don't have the same academic rigor as someone in their own field, but I felt like everything was pretty defensible.

Ox-drawn plows are at least 4000 years old, and I feel like seeing an animal pulling a plow all day begs for wheels so you can pull anything anywhere. At least more than the combination of a wheel and a stick, to apply mechanical advantage to lift and then move things.

The oldest wheelbarrow that we know of is from ~200 BCE, and the oldest chariots from ~2000 BCE. This tracks with animals pulling your stuff either being more obvious or to there being a higher ratio between payoff and cost of development.

You're right that it often comes down to dumb luck, but I think those lucky moments are usually facilitated by other factors. That's why there are often simultaneous and independent inventions (multiple discovery), and why tech startups aren't geographically uniformly distributed.


Wheels are also more advanced than they might appear to us nowadays. They are kind of a quantum leap because only a good wheel is useful, and a good wheel has multiple components that have to be fashioned and integrated in just the right way. Even if the idea of a wheelbarrow exists, it might not seem worth the investment when there isn't an established wheel industry and the wheel will need lots of tinkering and adjustment. But a wheeled cart driven by animals is a BIG improvement over saddlebags that would be worth it for travelers and soldiers to figure out.


Wheels sturdy enough to carry light loads are easier to fabricate than wheels sturdy enough to carry heavy loads. Similarly low-speed wheels are easier to create than wheels suitable for a chariot pulled by a galloping horse.

So the thousands of years gap between heavy carts and chariots vs wheelbarrows, isn't something you can explain by citing insufficient technology or unsuitable environmental conditions. I think it all comes down to nobody had that idea yet.


For one horse drawn wagons are thousands of years old, there's Sumerian depictions of them. So the idea that wheeled horse-drawn vehicles took thousands of years to invent after the chariot is just wrong.

The key to heavy horse drawn carts was the horse collar. A horse collar fits over the shoulders of a horse allowing it to push a load with its back legs rather than pull a load with essentially just its front legs.

Before the horse collar (invented about the 5th century CE) horses were harnessed either with a yoke or breast strap. Because of how these fit on a horse they could only use about half their available power at best and breast straps could impact their windpipe. For heavy loads oxen were used since you'd need twice as many horses for the same load.

Horses were far superior to oxen for many types of work once the horse collar was widely available because they're faster than oxen and have better endurance. With a horse collar they could pull the same load as an equivalent number of oxen but faster and longer durations. It not only made heavy horse drawn vehicles practical but increased the cost effectiveness of those vehicles since they could have longer duty cycles.

Animal drawn vehicles involve much more than just wheels. Their use is very much about the technology available and suitability for the environment.


I think it comes down to basic evolutionary principles--it's much harder to cross a big gap than a succession of small gaps.

History shows us the wheelbarrow is not obvious (things which are obvious get done quickly), the chariot provides an intermediate step and thus makes crossing the gap far easier.


It is his field. He's a geographer and a biophysicist, not only an ornithologist. Understanding geographic and environment contributions to evolution is explicitly in his wheelhouse.


Neither a geographer nor a biophysicist is a wheel historian.


> For instance, is claim that the use of wheels for transportation is in some way gated by the availability of pack animals. This guy has never used a wheel barrow I guess...

I pulled up a PDF of GG&S to search through and I can't see this argument in the book. What I can see is him making the observation that the wheels invented in mesoamerica didn't make their way north or south to be paired up with pack animals, and that this showed how hard it was for technological discoveries to travel vertically through climates.


He argues that because technology transfer was difficult in the Americas, the ancient Mexican wheel never found it's way to the Andes where it may have been combined with suitable pack animals. That much is fairly plausible. But he goes further than this: he also argues that because ancient Mexican wheels weren't combined with pack animals, wheels could offer no practical utility to ancient Mexicans and this explains why the wheel wasn't put to practical use in the Americas. This is too far, he's forcing the data to fit his model.

The relevant passage:

> While wheels are very useful in modern industrial societies, that has not been so in some other societies. Ancient Native Mexicans invented wheeled vehicles with axles for use as toys, but not for transport. That seems incredible to us, until we reflect that ancient Mexicans lacked domestic animals to hitch to their wheeled vehicles, which therefore offered no advantage over human porters.

It has nothing to do with pack animals. Pack animals are not and never were a prerequisite for putting wheels to practical use. Across all of humanity, perhaps as few as two individual people ever had the idea to invent the wheel; at least once in China and at least once again in Mexico; all other uses of the wheel plausibly descent from these two instances of invention. So obviously the wheel wasn't an obvious invention, and neither were practical applications for the wheel obvious, except seemingly so in retrospect. Chariots appeared about 4000 years ago, but wheel barrows only appeared about 2000 years ago. You can't explain that gap with environmental circumstances. The gap is explained when you realize these aren't obvious inventions. Searching for environmental reasons for the invention or non-invention of such things is folly, because the greatest hurdle to clear is simply having the incredible luck of somebody on your continent having such an idea in the first place.


Your claim that perhaps as few as two individuals in all of history thought of the wheel seems far-fetched, and presented without evidence. You aren't even addressing Diamond's argument. Diamond doesn't claim that the wheel only got invented twice or a few times in history. He asks why the ancient Mexicans apparently didn't use wheels for transport, and why the invention of the wheel didn't get transported south or north to other civilizations.

Very few wooden artifacts from prehistory or ancient times survive, and we know about ancient chariots and carts from depictions in art rather than from surviving examples. Lacking animals to pull wheeled carts leaves people to carry stuff, and then you have to ask if people using wheelbarrows or pulling wheeled carts makes transporting goods more efficient than having more people carry stuff. And you have to ask if the civilizations who didn't use wheels had access to the materials (hard wood) to make wheels and axles and carts. Any number of factors might have affected the adoption of wheeled vehicles, or failure to go that direction, but positing that the wheel idea only came up a handful of times in a couple of places seems an unlikely explanation.

The precursor to wheels is fairly obvious and doesn't require one brilliant mind out of millions. Logs used to roll heavy loads were used by probably every neolithic culture that built monuments, including those that never developed wheeled vehicles pulled by animals. Going from there to the wheel doesn't seem like a huge leap of insight.


Across Eurasia you had about 2000 years where people were riding around on chariots with strong spoked wheels, but farms didn't have even primitive wheelbarrows to move rocks off their fields. Moving rocks off fields is back breaking work and even a primitive improvised wheel barrow gives you an order of magnitude advantage. The prerequisite technology, conditions, demand, etc were there, but it took thousands of years for somebody to have the idea. Therefore, I think it's safe to conclude that very few people who've never seen or heard of a wheelbarrow would ever have the idea to invent one, even if they were already familiar with wheels in other contexts. The idea itself is the rare thing, not the prerequisite technological/social conditions. The idea can go unhad for thousands of years after all the other pieces were in place.

> You aren't even addressing Diamond's argument.

I think Jared Diamond could be correct, but I would still say that his argument is lame because he failed to establish a high likelihood of prompt invention once prerequisite conditions are met before concluding what those supposedly missing prerequisites were. I'm not addressing his argument because he failed to convince me that his argument addresses a real question in the first place. Supposing hypothetically that ancient Mexico had pack animals, it still might have been thousands of years before pack animals and wheels were put together.

> Going from [rollers] to the wheel doesn't seem like a huge leap of insight.

I really think it was. There's a big conceptual gap between rolling something on logs, and making the rollers captive through the use of an axle. The roller goes from being a tool used to move a thing to being an integral part of the thing. Wheels may have been invented more than twice, but there's not much evidence for that. And in any case, it certainly did take a very long time for some seemingly simple applications of wheels to be considered after wheels were popularized for more sophisticated and demanding purposes.


Wheeled carts predate spoked wheels, chariots, and wheelbarrows by thousands of years. Those could get pulled by people or animals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheel

Why do you think ancient farmers cleared fields of rocks to plant or graze? They didn't have machinery that would break. Farms were small. They could just avoid or work around large rocks, and throw the smaller ones to the side to make walls or rock piles. The plow was invented long after agriculture began, and a plow pushed or pulled at human or ox speed wouldn't break on a rock. I agree that moving lots of heavy rocks off of fields would be back-breaking labor, but why would ancient farmers choose such sites to plant? Just because modern farmers clear fields to open up more land to farm doesn't mean ancient farmers had to do that -- they could plant and harvest where the wild grasses already grew.

I don't know why the wheelbarrow turns up so late in history. Perhaps they were made entirely of wood, left no artifacts to find, and were common and unremarkable so don't show up in art or monuments. We don't find many spears for the same reason, only the spear tips. Wood gets recycled, burnt, and decays.

It's an interesting question but since people invented spoked wheels and chariots quite a long time ago I don't think no one ever thought of making carts or wheelbarrows.


Probably more of a multiplier. Wheels on pack animals are going to multiply the work that can be done many times over just a human pushing the thing. Sure, it helps the human do more, but combined with a pack animal its orders of magnitude more than the human. And building a cart to fit to the pack animal is probably not the easiest thing to come up with, but looks obvious after seeing it, hence why the flow of technology isn't instantaneous.


> book is plainly anti-racist and anybody who says otherwise probably never read it.

I read it.

It is deeply racist as none of the argument makes sense unless you look from a European POV from the end of the twentieth-century

It so happens that the industrial revolution happened in England and not India, and a bunch of European gangsters went on a three hundred year world wide rampage that is coming to an ignoble end now

Jarrad has some interest ideas but his euro centric POV is so deeply ingrained he cannot see it.

He is utterly racist. He does not know it, but it drips from all his writings


I think you are agreeing with him.

Your quote > "It so happens that the industrial revolution happened in England and not India, and a bunch of European gangsters went on a three hundred year world wide rampage that is coming to an ignoble end now"

This is exactly what happened. The book agrees with this.

That is not being argued against.

What he is discussing is 'why did the industrial revolution happen in England?'. What lead up to that. Not that they didn't do bad things once they had the technology.


It was explicitly written with a European POC at the end of the 20th century. What else would you expect?

That doesn’t make something racist if you’re European writing during that period. Should all books by euros from 1950-2000 be discarded? I’m not sure I understand your argument.


He mistook his post hoc analysis for historical and geographical determinism

Not all writers do that


I think the geographical determinism is the whole point though, right?

That’s the argument is that geography contributed heavily to what we have today. Not that we’ll have this forever.

I remember reading about the East/West spread vs North/South spread of technology and it seems clever to me.


> I think the geographical determinism is the whole point though, right?

My point is that it is post hoc a theory to fit the facts.


I agree that he forces facts to fit his model, but that doesn't make the book racist. The entire point of his book is that environmental circumstances, not racial or cultural characteristics, explain the circumstance of European dominance in the modern era; this is explicitly anti-racist. (Inb4 Kafkatrap: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36265324)


That's literally how creating a theory works. You don't "pre-hoc" explanations or there would be no point to scientific inquiry. Do you mean to say he's cherry-picking or displaying some other bias?


It's frustrating when people take scientific inquiry and dispassionate plausible explanation of historical circumstances as some sort of identity politics cudgel to bash a scientist over the head with erroneous value judgements like they're canceling a Neonazi.

GGS was a good book. Independently, 2 MDs at my gym also came up and mentioned they thought it was a fascinating work. And my dept chair also thought it was a insightful work. In fairness, the last 1/3 of it kind of falls flat. Collapse isn't all that engaging.


All those words and not a peep about his board game Darwinopoly. I played it in college with some members of my anthrpology class as part of a class exercise and let me tell you, asking random classmates if they want to have sex and then rolling for paternity is a thrill that's hard to replicate 20 years later.


This review suggests that the game is now called "Tribes": https://amzn.com/dp/1556343558, but the author is not Jared Diamond. Is this the game you remember?


Wow. I read that book in college. No idea a backlash like that developed... That is crazy if that is how skewed university's have become. Guns, Germs, and Steel is an incredible academic work. Dang.


I think Diamond's greatest fault as a researcher is his reliance on reductivism. Anyone can cherry-pick history to support "5 simple rules that explain X" if the rules are even reasonably sane.

It may be satisfying and entertaining to read, but human history is much more complex than just a few rules.


I bet I can take anyone's favorite history books and paint them as reductivist.

The charge of reductivism can be made against anyone who attempts to explain big patterns in comprehensible ways.

In fact, isn't it reductionist to claim that a historian's entire view on a topic can be reduced to theories they developed in a single book?


Exactly. Have you seen how many WWII or Civil War books there are. Do I need to read them all before I am allowed a valid opinion? All history gets condensed and interpreted. This thread isn't really do a very good job arguing that Jared is wrong, it seems much more like they disagree with some particular point politically, thus he must be wrong.


It's easy to level a charge of reductionist when the book is presenting a model for why things happened a certain way, instead of just describing what sort of things happened. GG&S is all about the why, and is therefore inherently reductionist.


I keep seeing this robot-like criticism of Diamond as "over-simplistic" or "hyperreductionist". But it's just a model? The map is not the territory, and Diamond has never claimed to explain all human development. His thesis is merely that geography and environment contribute to biological and cultural dominance to a disproportionate degree compared to other factors. I don't see how this is controversial.


I think it is because he's showing the colonial powers weren't especially evil, just more successful at being evil.


I took his rules as high level observations of the environment's impact on human evolution. But human experience is much more nuanced like you say. I do remember thinking some of the observations could come across as very blunt.

There is a video on the internet of him trying to shoot an old style gun... pretty funny... needless to say it's not his greatest skill.

Jared Diamond Funny video: https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxm-OUN3XNSdXmZ_fkXs1zZUQziwjaLZN...


No ear protection... most people not yet accustomed to guns would probably react about the same way.


the irony is that I've seen Guns, Germs, and Steel get trashed by people on the right for downplaying the idea that Western culture was/is special and the key to success/wealth/innovation and attacking Diamond for saying it was only due to geography and other random factors rather than Western culture itself

Universities and academics have shifted so far left that they are increasingly eating their own, the entire point of the book was to try and say that race and Western culture wasn't a factor. It's a pretty obvious argument against most right wing talking points, but apparently that isn't enough anymore in academia


Yep. It said Europe's balkanized geography (islands, peninsulas) begat literal balkanization, which begat competition, which begat innovation, which begat exploration and technology which dominated the world despite all other European failings.

Meanwhile, Asia's geography lent itself to unifying monopolization, which begat immense totalitarian states which were more complacent.

Both geographies fostered dense cities with draft animals, creating plagues and immunity to those plagues, which let the Old World dominate the New in numbers, technology, and immunology (nevermind that they had a few thousand years' head start in technology since they didn't have to switch continents).


And note that totalitarian states tend to become anti-science because it might upset their applecart. China was the dominant power, it didn't need innovation so why take the risk?


>Universities and academics have shifted so far left that they are increasingly eating their own, the entire point of the book was to try and say that race and Western culture wasn't a factor. It's a pretty obvious argument against most right wing talking points, but apparently that isn't enough anymore in academia

Is there any evidence that any actual 'eating' is happening here? I can't find any instances of it being banned or removed from curriculum. Jared Diamond continues to teach at UCLA.

Is the 'eating' the fact that people critiqued a pop anthropology? The author of the article is creating strawmen and then defeating them.

I was left with, who actually is the author of the article referencing and what is their actual argument.


Free markets are a big deal. They are indeed the key to success/wealth/innovation.


And part of Diamond's book was about how geography helped form free markets.


Sorry, free markets are not dependent on geography. Any country/civilization can adopt them any time they want to.


And the point of the book is that Balkanized geography makes countries more likely to want to adopt free markets whereas big continents will be more likely to adopt authoritarian state control.


Sounds like nonsense - the US straddles an entire continent. At the opposite geographical extreme we have Taiwan and Japan, both highly successful free markets.


The US was colonized, it didn't spring forth from pre-history this way. Diamond's theory is about the foundations of civilization and how they led to the broad strokes of history, not about modern events.


South America was colonized at the same time, but they didn't recognize rights and never amounted to much economically.


South America was pretty much entirely a jungle-covered mineral colony. Resource curse theory applies.


I'm not buying those excuses. SA failed to prosper because they had unfree economies. Chile has prospered when it went more free market, and regressed when it turned away from them.


Are you active in any of tho relevant fields? If not, then why do you think you are better qualified to judge the academic quality of his work than actual academics with the proper background?


> better qualified to judge the academic quality of his work than actual academics with the proper background

that argument only holds up if the group with the "proper background" is NOT a giant echo chamber where non-conformity is ruthlessly punished.


Can you specify which fields you have in mind and why you think so, or are you speaking in hypotheticals just for the sake of appearing to make a counterpoint?


I guess you think this is a witty thing to say.

we're already talking about a specific field.


No, I think you're trying to dismiss critics of Diamond without ever engaging with the actual criticism by blanket-accusing them of living in "an echo chamber" (and missing the irony of doing so on HN), without providing a shred of evidence.

It's a wonderful mental trick to convince yourself you're right without fact-checking yourself, not to mention dismiss any field of expertise that you disagree with, but it doesn't actually prove anything.


Well, I think you're trying to dismiss defenders of Diamond by saying "those people aren't published 'experts' in the field."

Which is, as you said, "a wonderful mental trick to convince yourself you're right without fact-checking yourself." They're not in our club, so they don't count.


What’s the “proper background” to comment on a pop anthropology book?


Anthropologist, historian, geography. Take your pick. There's ton's of specialties involved and he has received criticism from all angles.


It's a very inspiring and interesting book. And it causes a lot of discussion, that alone was(?) usually enough to get a lot of recommendations for reading. Academically, we must of course read it before we can criticise it.


Maybe I misread, but this author creates some pretty huge straw man arguments here and in so doing over simplifies what is, I think (as a lapsed but trained historian),pretty valid critique.

While some of the pop culture criticism of Diamond could be assigned to so-called cancel culture or “racism,” that characterization really does not summarize much of the academic critique of Diamond.

The best critique I’ve read and certainly the most fun is the Davids Wengrow and Graeber’s big tome “Dawn of Everything.”

Part of critique is simply Diamond making some broad strokes and it’s always the nature of synthesis that they decay quickly as new research comes available.

I’ll link to their more broad editorial, but the David’s’ biggest critique of Diamond and other neo-Raussians is that much of the foundation of those assertions are based on broad and bad preconceptions about so-called pre-history from the Enlightment. Once stated more plainly, very few of us in 2023 or even 20-40 years earlier, would agree with anything stated about other cultures in the Enlightment. And yet somehow, entire world histories - Diamond’s included - never question these basic foundational assumptions. This is a mistake that is increasingly disputed by not only pre-existing 20th century anthropology, but most certainly by 21st century anthropology included LiDAR and satellite imaging.

This author addresses some of that critique but to frame it as some kind of racist critique or cancel culture is frankly absurd. I’m surprised because as a historian surely Kedrosky has read the same books and articles I have, and certainly must know how historiography works - likely better than I do! - and yet this framing is so disengenious it’s a bit surprising.

In any case I recommend Dawn of Everything. It’s not a retort to Diamond/neo-Raussian as it is a kind of “huh!” with a lot of fun framing of preexisting research - some of which Diamond himself pulls from.

An op-Ed to whet the appetite: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/opinion/graeber-wengrow-d...


Knew there were some detractors, didn't know it was so wide spread and vindictive. Glad this sets out more current arguments.


I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Peter Turchin, as another 'pop-sci' author with some speculative theories. It is a counter theory on why civilizations 'Collapse'.

Since this thread seems so opposed to the 'environmental' causes of collapse that Diamond proposes, the Turchin theories on how societies naturally go through stages that lead to collapse is interesting second train of thought.


No one realistically believes GGS is racist except in a rule 34 kind of way in that every opinion has been stated by someone on the internet.


Graeber/Wengrow's Dawn of Everything is a good critical examination. I don't see anyone in this thread mentioning the kind of points that book covers. But it is another one that rankles institutional beliefs.


Cherry picking and misrepresenting evidence to argue for his fringe beliefs was Graeber's whole shtick. Let's not pretend his political screeds are works of dispassionate scholarship.


Graeber*


Ugh, I almost always get it wrong: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30830424

Fixed.


I always found McNeill's "Plagues and Peoples" a much better read than Diamond's book on semi-overlapping topics.


If it was at all popular, this thread would argue against it. Is it considered, 'more accurate'?


I guess this is the historians' orangutan.


Is this referencing Robert Sapolsky? I didn't know there was controversy there also?


I'm not sure. I vaguely rememeber the story about certain academics treating "the orangutan" as a great taboo that leads to endless fighting. Bizzare to an outsider, similar to my perception of the Diamond controversy.


>> But military histories of the conquest support the assertion that the small parties of Spanish soldiers were able to defeat much larger Native armies thanks primarily to their superior steel weapons and organizational capacity, in line with Diamond’s argument.

I don't have a bone to pick with Diamond, but this widely disseminated narrative lacks nuance. When people say that a few Spaniards conquered the largest Mesoamerican empires, at least when it comes to Mexico and the Aztecs, they are forgetting an important detail. When the ragtag band of mercenaries and adventurers following Hernán Cortés arrived at Mexico, they landed smack in the middle of a long-running regional war between the "Aztecs", i.e. the people of Tenochtitlan, and, basically, everyone else in the area. And of course, in the typical fashion of foreign invaders, the Spaniards immediately became fast allies with the enemies of Tehnochtitlan as the dominant power [1].

Thus, every time the Conquistadores fought the armies of Tenochtitlan, besides their guns, germs, and steel, and horses [3], they had with them thousands of allied local warriors, mainly from Tlaxcala, if I remember correctly, at least enough to stand up to the numbers of the Aztecs' armies [2].

Note that towards the end of the campaign, Tlaxcalla and the other kingdoms were indeed devastated by smallpox. But the same disaster was suffered by the people of Tenochtitlan, also. The Spaniards really were the plague [4].

_________________

[1] This is a story that has played out many times in history. For instance, when the Crusaders landed in the Holy Land, they immediately found themselves enmeshed in the constant churn of alliances and wars in the Middle East. Half of the time, half of the locals tried to kill them and the other half they tried to get them to help them kill the other half. The same thing happened in Iraq, when the US invaded. It is a story as old as invasion.

[2] In much the same way, when the Spartans held Thermopylae, until that dog Efialtes, gave them to the Persians, the 300 were not, well, 300; more like 7000, at least at the start of the battle. Even in their famous last stand the 300 Spartans were accompanied by 700 Thespians and 400 Thebans. The rest of the 7000 left to fight another day. Not that it would have made any difference anyway, not against the fully might of the Persian empire. Remember Leonida's apocryphal quip: when he was told that the Persians' arrows would be so many that they would darken the sun, Leonidas said "good, we'll be fighting in the shade".

[3] And La Malinche, a formidable woman who acted as their interpreter and go-between, and was probably a main reason the Spaniards managed to ally themselves to the locals in the first place.

[4] My source in all this is the Historia verdadera de la conquista de la Nueva España by Bernal Díaz del Castillo who was there and saw it all with his own eyes, so god be his witness. My source for the Crusades is "Les croisades vue par les Arabes" by Amin Maalouf.


This is covered in the article under the section "Native Allies":

'Diamond does not discount the fact that native allies assisted the Spaniards in seizing the Americas. He is more concerned that Spanish victories should not be "written off as due merely [emphasis mine] to the help of Native American allies"'

...

'Diamond's suggestion is that Native peoples would have found it irrational to help tiny bands of Spaniards if they did not possess some military advantages.'

...

'When the Spaniards escaped Tenochtitlan, they numbered at most 1,300, many sick or wounded, along with just 96 horses. They were aided by 5,000-6,000 Tlaxcalans, who were unlikely to have many martial advantages over trained Aztec warriors. The city's population was estimated at the time to have been over 200,000. If just ten percent were fighting-age males, the Spanish faced difficult odds. A week later, at the battle of Otumba, 425 Spaniards and 3,000-3,500 Tlaxcalans defeated an Aztec force of 200,000—a feat that would still be impressive if the Spanish exaggerated their enemies' numbers by ten times.'


Thanks, I confess I haven't read that far yet. It's a long article and I'm already convinced anyway; I didn't know Diamond is cancelled now. I read his book a long time ago so I forget the details, but I remember Yali's question and it never crossed my mind that trying to answer it might be read as racist.

Victory against overwhelmingly superior forces is not unheard of in history. As a classic example, see the Battle of Agincourt (~7000 Englishmen vs many tens of thousands of French, and it was a rout... for the French).


What "people" say or write the one-dimensional stories you repeat? Not Diamond. He discusses the pre-existing conflicts among the Aztec groups, and how some allied with the Spaniards. No one who studies the Spanish conquest says a small band of mercenaries and fortune-seekers could have conquered a united Aztec empire. The article these comments refer to also explicitly mentions that. Maybe people ignorant of history, who only know about Thermopylae from watching 300, repeat these stories, but historians don't, and Diamond doesn't.

The fact of rebellious locals allying with the Spaniards, possibly because they saw the significant advantages of the Conquistador technology and how it could help their cause, doesn't change Diamond's thesis. Nor does the fact that introduced diseases killed allies and enemies alike.


Never said it did. Just felt like making a little historical aside.

>> What "people" say or write the one-dimensional stories you repeat?

Lots and lots of people throughout my life. Sorry I don't have any references and so on. I've heard people say variously that it was gunpowder, horses, or steel. I've heard this from teachers at school, from friends at casual conversations, from fellow wargamers when discussing history, by people in the TV, read comics and watched movies where that was the theme, and so on.

As to Thermopylae, it definitely wasn't 300 that made people think that was the number of soldiers on the Greek side. 300 was made because that was the number people knew, as a bit of folklore. And btw, I'm Greek myself which should, I hope, suffice as evidence for my claim. Everybody always forgets the Thespians.

If you are aware that those are misconceptions, why do you mind a comment that doesn't suffer from them?


We can agree that too many regular people don't know much about history, and what they do know comes from movies and story books.

I thought you meant to refer to historians or scholars, who should know better.


Thanks for clarifying. I was speaking about lay people, like me (I'm not a historian, except only as an amateur of mainly ancient history).


Were there not helots with the Spartans too?


This blog post seems more of a strawman to me than anything else; GGS has a poor reputation in historian circles because it doesn't approach historical analysis with a level of rigor appropriate for academia.

This quote[0] sums up things well for me:

> Look through any r/history thread mentioning Diamond and you will see dozens of people who find our critiques pedantic, and that, in a general sense, Diamond’s thesis makes sense. This is a very difficult attitude to address, because it’s rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of how social sciences work. The attitude evaluates the ideas of popular authors from a utilitarian, practical approach: if the thesis is useful and helps makes sense of the world, it has value. We researchers take an inductive approach: if your methodology and facts are wrong, your thesis can't be right, no matter how much it "makes sense."

> For this reason, I’m kind of sick of talking about Diamond’s theoretical bents and ideologies. The standards by which scholars and the public evaluate them are so different that we have to address an entire epistemological orientation.

The "Diamond is a racist" argument is not one that historians care about. What they take issue with is:

* not questioning primary source bias (e.g. he takes Pizarro, Cortez, etc. at face value),

* exaggerating the role that disease alone played, as opposed to how disease amplified vicious cycles[2][3]

* made-up facts[0]:

> In a world where conquistadors bested Aztecs with with guns and Spanish friars set up missions in communities devastated by plague, Diamond’s arguments would matter. But this is a world where Tlaxcalans bested Aztecs, and Spanish friars set up many failed missions before gaining a foothold and witnessing entirely disrupted populations fall to disease afterwards.

[0]: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/6meq1k/comme...

[1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2mkcc3/

[2]: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/8nr7xd/

[3]: https://np.reddit.com/r/badhistory/comments/2cfhon/

(Disclaimer: I haven't read GGS, nor am I familiar with the underlying theses. I just find myself fascinated by the controversy around the book.)


> Diamond also attempts to explain why European, rather than Chinese, conquerors were the ones who did all the colonizing. This is a simple balkanization theory—Europe divided into many areas conducive to states, China formed a great homogenous core—that does not need lengthy restatement. Europe has a highly indented coastline with multiple large peninsulas, all of which developed independent languages, ethnic groups, and governments, plus two large islands.

Roberts' "The Triumph of the West"

https://www.amazon.com/Phoenix-Triumph-West-Press/dp/1842124...

has a quite different take on this. He says the difference comes from a different cultural perspective. It's been a long time since I read it, but I'll try to summarize it with the Chinese perspective was that phenomena could not be modeled. Everything was a unique creation. I.e. the behavior of a model could not be extrapolated to explain other behaviors, while the European perspective was always trying to explain things with models.

Another cultural difference was the European notion (intentional or otherwise) of free markets. This is expounded upon by another book, "The Victory of Reason" by Stark

https://www.amazon.com/Victory-Reason-Christianity-Freedom-C...

My own observation of history is that the key factor is recognition of and protection of the rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness produce massive technological progress and the uplifting of society.

Societies that recognize these rights thrive, those that do not, fall by the wayside as they are unable to compete.


> > Diamond also attempts to explain why European, rather than Chinese, conquerors were the ones who did all the colonizing. This is a simple balkanization theory—Europe divided into many areas conducive to states, China formed a great homogenous core—that does not need lengthy restatement. Europe has a highly indented coastline with multiple large peninsulas, all of which developed independent languages, ethnic groups, and governments, plus two large islands.

It's like he knows nothing about China. There's lots of different dialects, Mandarin wasn't the main language used by Government until around the time that the Americas were being colonized by the Europeans.


I read Diamond a long time ago but what he was contrasting was that the Chinese Empire was centralised and so when they decided not to expand, that applied to the whole empire, while the Europeans were fragmented so even if Germany and France and England didn't want to send any ships, Portugal and Spain could be convinced to take a risk.


Columbus' 3 small ships were also vastly cheaper than Zheng He's large fleet that had some really large ships in it (even if we dismiss the reported sizes as utterly unrealistic).

There's also the fact that the European ships at the time were more robust than the Chinese ships -- because robust ships had been really useful for sailing along the Atlantic coast for trade/fishing.


I also wonder which two islands are considered large out of GB, Ireland, Iceland, Corsica, Sicily... I feel like there's a couple of big islands around China too... Taiwan, some in Japan, Borneo, Philippines for instance. Indigenous Taiwanese settled the whole south Pacific.


Nothing in the quoted passage suggests that China does not have different dialects. But it doesn't take a history professor to recognize that China has been under centralized governments of much more comprehensive reach in space and time than Europe ever has, and it is with these periods of unity and stability that Chinese culture most identifies itself.


> China formed a great homogenous core—that does not need lengthy restatement. Europe has a highly indented coastline with multiple large peninsulas, all of which developed independent languages, ethnic groups, and governments, plus two large islands.

This right here more than suggests that China speaks one language, also suggests that it's never split apart, which it has multiple multiple times.


This is true now. But before, most people would have been loyal firstly to their area, speak a (quite possibly non-Chinese or even Sino-Tibetan) language or dialect only understood in their area, and at would at most have heard the names of some far-off places. It was not that different to Europe. And that's the relatively Chinese areas. Don't forget also that up until the 20th century large areas of present-day China were demonstrably not Chinese, in that nobody could speak or read Chinese in the area and they had adopted virtually zero Chinese language or culture.


I get where you're coming from. I think what the article should have said was, Europe has geography that favors multiple independent stable nation states, whereas Chinese geography, while it has certainly hosted many competing dynasties over the centuries, does not favor multiple stable nation states. Basically, it's too easy to conquer the whole, so it's been done many times.


Yes, if only the major rivers in China were different...

The Yellow River and the Yangtze River systems are so close that it isn't realistic to have long-term control over one and not the other. And controlling both gives you a fantastic base from which to conquer your surroundings.


Rice, rice, baby. - Vanilla Ice, on Chinese political anthropology.

Come 'n try to snatch my crops. - James Scott, on Zomian political anthropology.


> It's like he knows nothing about China

Oh yes.

And East Asia is much more than, much bigger than, China.

It is a ludicrous infantile argument from a Western POV Jarrad never notices.

He is a fish, swim g in a racist sea that does not know what water is


It's funny when people are so anti-racist they become racist.

I lean really far left, and know I am, so have to guard against bias being on the left. But this entire thread has really lost track of what racism is. So many people are arguing against Jared for being racist, while making racist arguments to justify it. Its getting bit crazy.


This is too abstract to be an explanation of anything. Chinese philosophers and logicians, before the arrival of formal logic in China (or the world probably) made constant references to the "sage kings" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Sovereigns_and_Five_Empe...) to justify every argument, because 2500 years ago, that's how argumentation worked. Almost purely by model.


> He says the difference comes from a different cultural perspective. It's been a long time since I read it, but I'll try to summarize it with the Chinese perspective was that phenomena could not be modeled. Everything was a unique creation. I.e. the behavior of a model could not be extrapolated to explain other behaviors, while the European perspective was always trying to explain things with models.

This makes me believe Diamond over Roberts even more. I don't think cultural philosophical beliefs matter that much. They can be arbitrary and stick around for long if they don't make much of a difference in daily lives - but anything that does make a difference will get more accurate with time rather quickly. This is to say, humans aren't dumb - and because of that, economics is stronger than faith or custom.

> My own observation of history is that the key factor is recognition of and protection of the rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness produce massive technological progress and the uplifting of society.

I'm a much less experienced observer, but my current view is that... it's mostly the other way around. Life, liberty and pursuit of happiness is the kind of stuff that mostly flows from people's emotions and social intuitions. People try to pursue those naturally. How far they go is determined by their economic situation - Ancient Rome afforded for different levels of "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness" than early agrarian settlements did; different still than what was possible in Feudal Europe, and different from what was possible after the Industrial Revolution.

Technological progress reshapes the economical landscape, allowing people to achieve more "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness". Specialization of labor, agriculture optimization, the printing press, industrialization, engines, washing machines, electricity - all created conditions that allowed people having more rights, liberty and happiness than they could've before.


> Specialization of labor, agriculture optimization, the printing press, industrialization, engines, washing machines, electricity - all created conditions that allowed people having more rights, liberty and happiness than they could've before.

Sorry, but this is exactly backwards :-) In the US, the rights came first. Note that the states that still practiced slavery failed at industrialization, specialization, etc.


The Founders of the United States did not invent the rights you refer to. They had thousands of years of western history to cherry-pick ideas from.

The states in the north had slavery too, just not an economy heavily based on slavery. By the time of the American Revolution slavery was already on the way out in Europe, practiced in plantations in the New World but not at home. The ancient Athenians and Romans believed in inherent rights of life, liberty, happiness, freedom too, just not for everyone.


> The Founders of the United States did not invent the rights you refer to.

You're right, those rights are inalienable characteristics of humans. However, the US was the first to codify them into the founding document of a nation.

The states in the North had all ended slavery by 1804. Prosperity followed.


> The states in the North had all ended slavery by 1804. Prosperity followed.

And so did the Industrial Revolution. What's the causal mechanism that puts codifying the rights you mention, and quest for happiness, before prosperity? With industrialization, the possible mechanism is much more clear for it being the source of both prosperity and the ability for US to keep those rights codified over longer periods of time.


Industrialization only happened in free societies that recognized those rights.

Yes, I know about the forced industrialization in the USSR, but that failed to really deliver much to the civilians. It was mostly focused on military production. The US industrialization was so far ahead it provided not only the highest standard of living in the world, but enabled the US to fight simultaneous wars in both hemispheres, while supplying its allies (including the Soviet Union) with vast quantities of industrial products.

> is much more clear

Again, the industrialization of America happened after the rights were guaranteed, and only in the parts of America that were free.


> In the US, the rights came first.

Impossible, given that the first three items on my list predate Europeans settling on the American continent :). But in the other sense, desire for those rights was present with people throughout history - you can see echoes of those in any ancient empire that reached some degree of stability.

My point is that it seems you need to reach a certain level of economic and technological advancement to create a "fertile ground" for "social advancements", otherwise they won't hold. After all, many of those are no-brainers and would be trivial to achieve if there wasn't some opposing force preventing it. Those forces, I think, are always economical in nature. Things like, "survival of typical household requires so much labor there isn't time for anything else", or "there is a strong demand that's best fulfilled by ${something abhorrent} and there are no viable alternatives". While they're it play, advance is impossible. Once they weaken, advance becomes inevitable.

Compare: it's not the ecologists that stopped whaling before whales were hunted to extinction. It's the petroleum industry coming up with synthetic oils and crashing the market for whale oil pretty much overnight.

Compare: it's pretty clear in sciences that progress happened incrementally, and wasn't dependent on rare geniuses - once theory and tooling advanced to certain point, the next step was pretty much inevitable, which is why many (most?) breakthroughs in history have been made independently and simultaneously by many people around the world.


The Roberts explanation is subsumed by the Diamond explanation.

More fragmentation meant more competition. This helped ensure that states which, like China, might have sub-optimal belief systems (like "it's not worth trying to explain things") were outcompeted and conquered by states that did. Similarly, states with markets that were more free outcompeted those that were less free, and so the innovation spread. The Dutch invented the modern stock market and the public company, and ruled the world for 100 years with that, but soon enough that spread to the UK, and then rest of the western world, and gave them all a huge competitive advantage compared to countries that didn't have that.

And all that comes from the fragmentation. No need to postulate cultural differences - the cultural advantages come out of the fragmentation.


N & S America civilizations were quite fragmented, as well as African ones.


Yes but, as Diamond argues, they didn't have large enough animals to domesticate because large american mammals that hadn't co-evolved with humans were exterminated in about 1000 years when the Americas were colonised by humans about 11k years ago.

Not having cows and pigs and horses is a huge disadvantage.


Yes, I did read his book, and know about his argument about domesticated animals. That lack didn't prevent the Aztecs and Mayans from building an empire of stone buildings.

They did have moose and deer and llamas and bears and goats and bison. I don't know if there's any proof they can't be domesticated given enough generations, time and patience. Wolves and foxes can be domesticated.

The Finns domesticated reindeer.


The Aztecs and Mayas built an empire of stone buildings, sure. And they were still proudly building their stone buildings in the 1500s, almost 7000 years after the pyramids.

Lack of plough animals doesn't extinguish the human creative spirit, it just slows it down a lot.

It is curious why bison were not domesticated. I did a bit of research and could not find a clear reason (some suggestions that maybe Aurochs lived in forests and smaller herds, and that may have made them easier to domesticate... but that seems weak).

I'm wondering how much is due to what I'd call the Harari perspective, in Homo Deus - that Eurasians also invented the "god-centric worldview package" that shifted the view of the world from a more animistic perspective (where all beings share the world and so treating animals in the absolutely horrific ways that domestication and agriculture requires is just unthinkable, since they are seen as other beings sharing the world with us) to the "gods and humans" perspective (where god created humanity, and then every other being is just subservient and lacks a soul and therefore can be exploited, murdered, treated like goods, etc).

Mesoamerican religions, despite all the human sacrifice, did see animals and plants as intrinsically valuable and spiritually significant. Native Americans in the North definitely did that too (and they had more exposure to bisons). That would perhaps have led them not to seek to domesticate animals.

It is curious (to me) that no culture emerged that even tried, though (that culture would likely have outcompeted everyone else).


And Africa has east west orientation too

Jarrad had to make North Africans "honary europeans" to make,e his theories work


Africa doesn't have East-West orientation, it extends across the tropics and into the North and South temperate regions.


Look at a map

It has a huge east west extent

https://images.newscientist.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/1...


You are being very silly. North Africa is oriented East-West in a way that allowed it to participate in the easy exchange of flora, fauna, culture and technology with the greater East-West zone that extends from Portugal to China. Saharan Africa is dominated by the Sahara Desert, which is a huge barrier to exchange. Sub-Saharan Africa is oriented mainly North-South, in comparison with the greater Mediterranean exchange region the Diamond outlines.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/61/Eq...


There's a lot of silliness in this comments section. I guess it's what the article is talking about.


Africa has more East West in the temperate zones than Europe. Africa has two of them.

It has North South as well


You are still doing it.

North Africa is included in Diamond's Mediterranean exchange zone. And that zone extends out of Europe to the Fertile Crescent, at the very least, and arguably to India and China as well. Africa's two zones are separated by the largest and most inhospitable desert on earth. There is no advantage in having two.

That is in fact the core idea Diamond is expressing.

Domesticatable flora and fauna from a huge and ecologically diverse geographic region were easily diffused around the entire zone. The difficulty of migrating horses or sheep across the Sahara, or turkeys and llamas across the Darien Gap, is much much higher. Sub-Saharan Africa started with few large animals suitable for domestication, and importing new ones was comparably difficult.


> But Guns, Germs, and Steel—which is explicitly anti-racist

Reminds me of: "I'm not racist, but...."


Guns, Germs and Steel is ridiculous nonsense and an horrific just so story to explain European supremacy for a bulk of the modern era. I'd sooner listen to Jared Taylor than Jared Diamond, because at least the former's hypothesis is somewhat intellectually sound.

It also has laughable, extremely racist tidbits such as Jared Diamonds unironic opinion that, on a genetic basis, people of Papua New Guinea are "superior" to Europeans, where he cited industrialization as dysgenic.

Absurd.


I no longer have a copy, so from memory....

The book opens with a sequence of Jarrad discussing with a New Guineaian, why it was Europeans that went to New Guinea, and not the other way around

He goes on to discuss this, as if Europeans were the first outsiders there (we are not talking about the Highlands, that is more complex)

Where he was having the conversation there had been at least four thousand years of international trade and commerce. Which he ignored

At one point in time Europeans are dominant. He makes up a story about why Europeans are dominant, not dominant now, in this time, but forever.

Europeans (we) had our experience of world domination. It is not the natural order, as Jarrad suggested, but an historical blip.

If the Industrial Revolution had gotten under way in India and it was the West Euro company from Bengal conquering Britain, then some India Jarrad would be telling a different story

That is what is wrong with it. Post Hoc analysis and story tel.ing dressed up as scholarship

Or racist drivel, to call a spade a spade


You are quoting his thesis in the wrong order.

He is not saying Europeans are 'dominant for ever'. He is saying that because of geography, etc... that Europeans developed technology faster, which gave them a head start, and that head start has perpetuated, exactly because that is what a head start does. Not that it can't even out in time, like a ripple.

I think his thesis is totally compatible with saying "if New Guinea" had developed technology sooner, they would have dominated and killed everyone. It isn't like there isn't evidence of wars and slaughters in Polynesia, they just didn't get the technology.

What I took away from the book is not that "Europeans" are evil (which would mean they are genetically pre-disposed doesn't it?), it is that all humans equally dominant whenever and however they can, and technology heavily tips the scales. And Europeans just lucked into it.


> . And Europeans just lucked into it.

That is your interpretation, and mine

Not his

His was that the geography of Europe is special

But it is not. Even in his speciality, geography, he gets it wrong

Because he cannot bear that "...Europeans just lucked into it. "


> Because he cannot bear that "...Europeans just lucked into it. "

His thesis is precisely that, so he can definitely bear it.

Ultra-summarising:

- The Americas fell behind because they eliminated large mammals before inventing domestication, and not having horses and cows is a huge setback.

- Sub-Saharan Africa fell behind because it is oriented north-south and there are a lot of different climates you have to travel through, and therefore technology exchange is harder.

- Eurasia had the east-west orientation that enabled tech exchange, so it was going to happen there.

- Of the Eurasian regions, China could have been first but being too unified meant that they were less competitive and less likely to repeat high-risk ventures until they worked. Europe was fragmented and competitive which led to faster innovation, including more focus on turning anything into a weapon (e.g. gunpowder, invented in China but turned into war devices in Europe) or a disruptor (paper & printing press).

All seems pretty logical, and does not ascribe Europe any superior moral character. It's just luck.

Unless, of course, you believe that being born in the right place at the right time is related to moral character rather than luck. But I don't think Diamond does that in his book.


Been awhile for me also. But wasn't it more about East-West Trade. And that 'cross-fertilization' would help everyone across that path, the rising tide raises all boats. So at some point China or Persia also had a chance to leap ahead, but for other factors. I don't think it was a given that Europe would 'win' the technology race. Though, now my memory fails me on what was the deciding factor.

But given that humans are equal, with a equal history of violence and conquest. If geography was not a factor. Then what was? We can't just blame Europeans for being successful. If we can't find any external factors, then we are left with internal, and then we'd have to do some logic around what makes them specifically different. Culture? Genes? Those also don't seem correct.


Diamond's geography thesis is that migration is easier east-west than north-south, not that Europe is (otherwise) special. (Until the UK figured out how to use their island made of coal to make steam and steel at scale.)


> He makes up a story about why Europeans are dominant, not dominant now, in this time, but forever.

He never claims the dominance will last forever. He just presents theories as to why Europeans are dominant now (or were 40 years ago when the book as published at least).

It’s not racist to try to explain why Europe conquered New Guinea and not the other way around. It’s racist to say that’s a good thing or destined or will last forever, but Diamond never argues that. I think you have some headcanon there.


> It’s not racist to try to explain why Europe conquered New Guinea and not the other way around.

What is racist is to say it happened for a reason, not blind luck


He's saying that it happened for reasons completely unconnected with race.

Whether you believe his claims are correct or not, how do you manage to read them as racist?


Isn't that opposite.

If all humans are equal, and one group wins, then it was either external factors or luck.

But if it is not luck or external reasons, then isn't that racist, because now you are saying Europeans are somehow genetically different (better), or have a better culture, and that is what caused their success?

I think you are mixing possible reasons. There are non-racist reasons.


But it did happen for a reason and it’s luck.

There’s lots of random chance involved (New Guineans could have started in England) but because of those chance positions there are reasons things happened.

How is that racist?


The author whose book you're criticising from memory is called "Jared" Diamond, not "Jarrad".

Sorry to be pedantic, but this really grates. At the very least it makes me wonder about the precision of your recollection of the content of the book.


Did you stop reading at the intro?


I got about two thirds through

Whatever you think about him, he really needed a more dominant editor.




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