Flash is appealing because it has features HTML/CSS/JS do not have and because everyone on every platform has it. Since mobile devices are becoming ever more important and Flash is not supported on those devices (or will not be) the second part of that sentence is no longer true.
Conclusion: Flash is dead. We will have to deal with it for years but it's on its way out. A web technology that will not work on mobile devices has no future.
Flash may well survive as AIR - that’s an uphill battle but it's possible – but that’s kinda irrelevant for the web.
If you were on Wikipedia you'd see a [Citation needed] here.