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Hell, even 20-50% safety isn't necessarily a productive strategy, if you pay too much for it.

I think the main trick is to reduce the unit cost/training investment in astronauts so that we can send up more, and making very cheap vehicles to get them there, so that we'll not have to worry about losing a big investment when (not if) something goes wrong. Putting hundreds of millions of trained meat into billions of dollars worth of aerospace tech is not sustainable.

If it would get me to the moon with a 1 in 3 chance, hell, give me a banana and call me Albert VII.

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