Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login
Disney Eliminates Its Metaverse Division (wsj.com)
375 points by lxm 12 months ago | hide | past | favorite | 302 comments




The main problem with Metaverse is that it it's an amusement park without any rides.

Disney is the sort of company that might have made some interesting rides. A Mandalorian spin-off series of interactive VR episodes that can be experienced with a group of friends? A lot of people would have bought VR headsets just for that. Nobody's going to buy headsets to make a goofy looking avatar and hang out with Mark Zuckerberg in a Second Life remake. Experiences are what sell new entertainment technologies and Disney owns the IP to some pretty compelling experiences.

The management of that rideless amusement park is also a little concerning. I'd love to see VR finally go mainstream, but I'd prefer it if pretty much anyone other than Meta were behind the platform that catches on first.


A lot of people would have bought VR headsets just for that.

There's a lot of VR content out there, and some of it is excellent, and some of it ties in to popular franchises (PS5 VR has a Star Wars game), and occasionally it's both (Halflife: Alyx for example) . None of it is enough to drive VR to be mainstream entertainment.


IMO the hardware simply isn't good enough for the mass market yet.

* Motion sickness is still a really big problem

* If you're short-sighted and wear glasses, then the picture will be blurry for you. The original PSVR worked around the issue by pushing the lends out so you could comfortably wear glasses and the headset, but none of the modern headsets afaik include this affordance. Wearing contacts isn't an option for a lot of people.

* Way too expensive. I can afford one pretty easily, but most people can't. For roughly the same price as a Quest you can get an iPhone SE which is going to offer significantly more value to the average person

* They're too heavy! People complain about a 240g iPhone being too heavy in the hand. The Quest is 503g on your head, and this headset in particular doesn't distribute weight very well. PSVR is slightly heavier, but is at least slightly more comfortable than the Quest due to its weight distribution.

I think there might be some other factors at play, too. Throwing on a VR headset feels a lot more antisocial than watching TV or tinkering on your phone in the living room because you're wearing a giant headset that separates you from the real world. Even if the hardware does get really good, I'm not entirely sure how easy it is for manufacturers to convince families that headsets are a good purchase.

I really enjoyed using my friend's VR headset to slowly play through Half-Life: Alyx. I could manage about one level at a time before needing to take the headset off and take a break, because of motion sickness + how uncomfortable the whole thing was. I think there's still a lot of R&D to do before headsets are really in a position where regular people start buying them up en masse.


>IMO the hardware simply isn't good enough for the mass market yet.

>I think there might be some other factors at play, too. Throwing on a VR headset feels a lot more antisocial than watching TV or tinkering on your phone in the living room because you're wearing a giant headset that separates you from the real world. Even if the hardware does get really good, I'm not entirely sure how easy it is for manufacturers to convince families that headsets are a good purchase.

Forgive my ignorance, this is a genuine question.

Do people, on the whole, even want the metaverse? I see this massive push from the tech industry, a lot of public disinterest, and companies are still insisting that we want this. Do we have public polls that confirm people do crave the metaverse to the extent that tech wants us to? What is making them so confident beyond just hope?


Good question.

I don’t have a poll but three observations.

1) People’s tastes vary. But millions of units have sold so people are open to it.

2) My non-techy 60+ year old aunt tried my Quest and kept raving about it and bought one.

3) It has potential to be more immersive. Having messed around with Quest, there are demos of things that are step functions of experience beyond what you get with a TV experience: the eye opener for me was front row seat in a small venue with your favorite band, up close and personal. When the video+3d resolution get better, it will get way more compelling.

Entertainment is all about feelings. An immersive experience provides even more ability for evoking them. People do seem to value more-immersive where possible if you look at the history of TV+movies… if the distractions can be eliminated.

But if the packaging tells you not to let people under 13 years to use it (because their eyesight is still developing?) (and I love the honesty), it’s fair to say the tech isn’t fully there and you aren’t going to capture the next generation of kids with spare time on their hands, among many other factors.

There is also not a lot of free compelling content on Quest unlike the internet; rather they are very geared towards selling you $20 apps in their store. I respect the need to monetize but there is also a fair bit of learning still needed on marketing and business model side for both the platform and apps to drive me to keep opening the wallet. I felt like I explored most of the free content and apps in under 10 hours. Value for money just wasn’t there for me.

I did feel like the tech was “good enough” that this tech would get there eventually. That is a key threshold to cross and imho has been crossed. But I am also reminded of my old (pre-iPhone-eta) WindowsCE mobile phone with stylus and web browser in my pocket. There was value there… but it was also greatly mitigated by being cumbersome in various ways.


> 1) People’s tastes vary. But millions of units have sold so people are open to it.

Is this an indication that people want the Metaverse, specifically, or are open to VR in general?

I am not much of a gamer, and probably the last person who would ever be interested in a VR headset. But I can see the appeal of VR games. I can't, for the life of me, see the appeal of "the Metaverse."


I see "the metaverse" as the liminal space between actual VR apps (games, business, whatever). If you're between rounds of a VR game you don't want to remove the helmet while waiting and chatting so you'll hang out in a VR-enabled lobby where you see each other in your in-game outfits. Eventually enough games will have VR lobbies that you'll hang out with people in other games' outfits as you all wait for your game to start.

Ditto business. If you're in VR because you're reviewing architectural renderings or whatever, you'll probably keep the helmet on for a few minutes between meetings and as such, seeing your coworkers come out of other virtual meeting rooms and hang around at a virtual water cooler gives you a bit of that hallway conversation that you're now missing, and provides a continuity of experience.

None of this is where the money is though, at least not now. You're still playing a game, or using business software, and that's what you pay for - not the lobby. That's why, I think, Meta and stuff seems so silly. They seem to expect that you're going to want to use it for its own sake, as opposed to it being equivalent to the Facebook UI - something you use to get the real value, not the value itself.


This is also a great question. Beyond that, of the millions of units sold, I'd be curious to know how many of those are upgrades from the same early adopters vs first-time buyers. Also, what has the trajectory of new user adoption looked like?


There's no eyesight risk for children; the 13 year old restriction is for compliance with childrens' online privacy and marketing legal restrictions.


> Do people, on the whole, even want the metaverse?

To answer that, we first need a good answer to the question: "What the hell is the 'Metaverse' supposed to be?"

Because as long as that isn't answered, the question reads: "Do people, on the whole, even want another corporate buzzword?", and I think we all know the answer to that one.


>Do people, on the whole, even want the metaverse?

My impression -

Do people want magical alternative worlds they can hang out in? Yeah, video gaming is huge, bigger than movies.

Do people want to interact with those with a VR thing stuck on their head? No, not on the whole - normal screens are fine.


People don't want the metaverse for themselves, but Meta's customers have never been its users.

What people (the customers) want is a dashboard that lets them dispatch memes to other people (the users). Meta already sells that. But they want those memes to affect the users' behavior, and Meta is betting that they can turn a stream of user biometrics (collected by the headset) into a way to better tune the meme-delivery-to-desired-behavior pipeline.

Or at least that's what they've convinced the decision makers. It's probably a long way off from working and instead that narrative is just being used to justify building something sci-fi.


> Do people, on the whole, even want the metaverse?

My take?

As a general question, no, they don't. And they won't.

However, they may want it for niche applications. Games would be the big one, but also perhaps certain industrial applications and other business functions. Although the business uses are probably better served with just AR instead of a whole "metaverse" (depending on your definition of "metaverse").

Which brings up the definitional problem. We have the metaverse and people love it -- we just call it the internet. So I'm assuming that when people say "metaverse", what they really mean is "VR worlds".


0% interest rates make companies throw money at useless products looking for returns because there wasn't any better use for the money. It's been like that for 5+ years, but this whole NFT/Bitcoin/Metaverse/AI meme series is the peak.

Here's to hoping that these higher interest rates make companies make actually useful and profitable products instead of a bunch of meme products.


I do anyway. I find the entire concept oddly compelling. To fabricate a completely immersive online world is just fascinating to me. I would love to see this work someday.

Unfortunately, today I can't even use VR for more than a few minutes before I'm ready to vomit and my eyes feel like they're being pulled out of my head.


All(almost) headsets have space for normal sized glasses. Or offer lens inserts like https://vroptician.com/


Hmm I could be wrong about this. My personal experience with the Index was that glasses were really uncomfortable, and I've heard from friends that they've had issues with other headsets. Maybe we all have large glasses? :)

I didn't know about the lens inserts. Those are cool and definitely fix the issue if people can find them.


Just another datapoint - I've never had issues with glasses either.

My larger reading glasses tend to come off when I remove the headset because they touch foam padding but my regular glasses fit in every headset I've tried (other than Magic Leap's stupid "goggles" form factor - the Vive Elite XR however is fine).


Quest 2 comes with a spacer specifically for glasses.


> The Quest is 503g on your head, and this headset in particular doesn't distribute weight very well

That’s just the default strap being okay but not great, they are designed to be swappable.

Amazon is full of straps that provide way better support for the back of your head. Oculus sells one too: https://www.meta.com/ca/quest/accessories/quest-2-elite-stra...

Also I’ve used the Oculus 2 for many hours and never had issues wearing glasses or getting motion sick. Maybe that was your VR device or a personal thing?


> Also I’ve used the Oculus 2 for many hours and never had issues wearing glasses or getting motion sick. Maybe that was your VR device or a personal thing?

Same thing with the Index. The only issues I had, despite wearing glasses, were:

- Nearly going through a glass door while trying to take cover, and ending up in the hallway.

- The cable. Too short. Easy to tangle. Easy to trip over.

- Wondering why I suddenly had arms and where my awesome gloves had gone whenever I looked at my hands in the half-hour following any long session in Alyx.

Wish it was wireless. And perhaps a bit lighter.


The motion sickness thing is a person-by-person thing, but it’s a significant percentage of folks who experience it. Enough that it would probably prevent VR from becoming anywhere near as widespread as TV or smartphones, unless it can be solved for.


Any research on how many people experience it? I’m not convinced it’s as wide spread as people say. Usually the people on HN who always say this (usually in doomer VR will never work posts) never seem to be people who have spent much time using VR, and either relay hearsay or only played around with VR once with some old device for a short period. It takes time to get used to VR and not all devices/content are the same.

I’d be surprised if it was more than 5-15% of people after long term exposure and across a wide variety of content… which would be a problem yes but hardly a market killer and the tech is always getting better.


The only world vr would work the way meta wanted is a world where everyone social distances forever. There's a slight chance if it's a hyperrealistic environment where you can actually see people in the eyes. No one will replace akwardly looking at the ground as everyone directs the attention to you with a bobbling 3D avatar as their main interaction with other people.


> * Motion sickness is still a really big problem

Depends on the game.

For MOST people, the motion sickness is caused by your real world motion not matching the motion your eyes see. As a result, games that don't make you use the controller to move around (Beat Saber, Space Pirate Trainer, Pokerstars VR, and more) don't usually make people sick.

But games where you move through the in-game world without moving in the real world (Any racing or flying game, any game where you make your character walk using the controllers) are nearly guaranteed to cause sickness. Many games that require your character to walk around get away with this by using teleportation.

This is why I've always said that putting someone into a racing game or roller coaster simulator or something like that as their first VR experience is doing a major disservice to VR adoption.


i think it won't work until it is more like a holodeck and less like a vr headset.


That's room-scale VR and is already here. You just need enough space for it.


does it require a headset? then it is not representative of the holodeck.


Ok, fair enough. I'm imagining a room with all 6 sides covered in OLED panels. The hard part is to implement binocular vision. Shutter glasses could work I suppose, maybe even allow multiple people to use it. Refresh rate 2*n*120 Hz, where n is the number of people in the holodeck.


These exist using projectors instead of OLED-Panels. You cannot do all 6 sides because of issues with heat though. They are called CAVEs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_automatic_virtual_environ...


I think there is also a different issue - in a time where some people seem to be keenly aware of how much time they spend looking at screens and are making efforts to reduce that, the Metaverse (and any VR, really) wants to dial that up even more, instead consuming your full attention when using it


VR controllers aren't reading your mind yet.

It doesn't matter how good the VR output is if I can't recline in my comfy chair with a VR helmet on and then run around a fantasy world fighting monsters and throwing fireballs while lying motionless in the real world.

That's the VR future science fiction has promised.


3D TV's didn't catch on, I think part of the issue is to get over the early adopters into mainstream there is the hurdle of wearing something over your eyes for hours at a time. The vast majority of people (aka mainstream) don't enjoy it. If people don't enjoy simple lightweight 3D glasses, they aren't going to enjoy the VR form factors out there.

I'm choosing the word enjoy because its not something like a car dashboard being touchscreen where people deal with it, this is entertainment and hobbies. If people don't enjoy it, they'll go do something else. VR will have niche use cases for sure and there will be some people that enjoy it but its not going to be mainstream.


In fact, increasingly in this world, VR is the exact opposite of what I want when I want to relax, want exercise, entertainment, enjoyment.

More and more just getting outside (in the Big Blue Room) and reconnecting with nature are what I crave.


> the hurdle of wearing something over your eyes for hours at a time

I agree. I think this is the main issue, actually. As long as that's required, VR will have limited appeal.


Is there any porn though?


Enough that Pornhub has a VR category.


At least that’s what I’ve heard


Some productions are just brilliant — even my wife loved them, and she's usually not enthusiastic about this kind of content.


Rule 34, if it exist there is porn of it.


There is of course porn starring VR, but rule 34 says nothing of whether there is porn accessible in VR format.


Rule 34a

If a format exists, then there is porn on it.


Which makes me think - has anyone run Bad Apple on a VR headset yet?


I wonder if there's a corollary about different media formats.


I really like that analogy "amusement park without any rides". I really do think Meta et al were too excited by the idea of the business potential of parallel worlds to notice that in the "what's in it for me" equation, ordinary people came up empty handed.

But back to your analogye, it applies particularly well here because Disney are a master of delivering experiences and do exactly that through every possible medium. So if one sees Disney walking away from the Metaverse, that's not something I would interpret lightly - despite the rounds of firing being interpreted as a cost saving measure, it's just 50 staff members and not all of them are leaving the company. Disney aren't short of cash, so if they saw a future in the Metaverse they'd be there for defensive reasons alone.

Rather I think Disney realise that their own VR-initiatives will stand on their own, and their involvement would be propping up 3rd party platforms rather than yielding a benefit from them.

I think Meta are hoping that the Metaverse would emulate the Smartphone/Soft-store model, where developers would do the heavy lifting for the platform, but the crucial difference here is that a Smartphone is useful before even loading a single piece of 3rd party software. Everyone already had a phone when smartphones became a thing - but right now no one is walking around with a VR headset, or anything even vaguely approximating that.


> Meta et al were too excited by the idea of the business potential of parallel worlds to notice that in the "what's in it for me" equation, ordinary people came up empty handed.

No, this was Mark's personal Quest for the Next Big Thing. No one else in the company is delusional enough to believe it will go anywhere, they're just getting a fat paycheck.


VR going mainstream is difficult until they can get people to take anti-nausea meds with them.

The biology of humans works against VR in a lot of ways, and most people don't like the idea of taking anti-nausea pill just to experience VR. (I take anti-nausea pills when I do VR, because VR is absolutely mindblowing)


I don't get nausea, but even without that I hate the experience of actually wearing the things. I find I get a lot of eye strain that prevents me from playing long sessions, the weight/bulk is uncomfortable, and it can get quite hot wearing a headset for any length of time. I think almost everybody will find VR goggles uncomfortable in SOME way.

These things are fun to mess around with, but I think very few people will ever want to wear goggles like this for more than an hour or so at a time, which inherently limits their appeal and potential applications. My widescreen monitor has none of these issues and it's plenty "good enough" for most games.


I agree, I'm looking forward to a design factor like the following https://www.roadtovr.com/bigscreen-beyond-pc-vr-steam-releas...


I think you are referring to old VR experience, the tech is pretty mature now, latency is super low, tracking is good, on pretty much any model. I play a lot of VR games and never get sick. The only one where I got a little dizzy was with 6dof FPS, which isn't really due to VR specifically.

Although it is true some people get sick easily in VR, those people tend to also have trouble with car sickness and sea sickness. I suppose you can say the same about cars and VR for that group.


I'm a woman, apparently women have a much lower tolerance for VR. Some people theorize its due to avoiding damage to the child during pregnancy.

So even on my very high end setup (Index 120hz,4090 rtx), I still get nausea. It also takes a while for people to get their VR legs, and I don't have time for using VR very day, it's more like once a month.


I'm sorry to hear that. There are definitely differences in tolerance between people.

However I don't think this is specific to the tech any more, just the experience, similar to flying a plane or being on a boat. But It used to be that everyone would get nauseous due to immaturity of the technology as the parent comment was implying, and that's no longer true.


I'd say the main problem is human beings are not mature enough to be trusted with such a service, it will be a rape and pillage campaign for all your data and all your interests and all your imagination. We create predator services and pretend they are 'just services', burning the end-user's trust for any similar "services" after they sour from the treatment of the first one they tried. We have a serious maturity problem in the human species, and it is dragging all our progress down and backwards.


> A lot of people would have bought VR headsets just for that

But probably a lot less than would watch a Mandalorian animated or real life spin-off TV series - and the VR version costs a lot more to create.

A lot of companies (Disney, Magic Leap etc) have spent a fortune trying to make the killer VR content but have failed. Apart from the sports/exercise apps (probably not enough to support the FB metaverse) are there any that would make people purchase a headset for?


> and the VR version costs a lot more to create.

Would it need to? It's a video game, right? Once you have the base elements, it could be pretty cheap.


My kids and I would have been pretty happy with just access to non-game elements. They must have already made loads of 3rd spaces and models - just being able to hang out and explore them would be brilliant.

Then if they started to layer gaming on top of that... my kids would be pestering me even more than they already are for a vr set-up.


It seems to me that everything in VR almost have to be fan-made or at least a-financial passion project, or else nothing works. Meta did not end up with that creepyverse by cutting costs, they ended up with it by throwing gold bullions at walls.

There's no way Disney had not made internal studies, the problem must have been that they can't set up a management and/or production model they like && that works for VR.


The only explanation I have for this is that to succeed in vr you need to do a lot of UX innovations. And innovation doesn't work well in most corporate environments.


I think there are plenty of small indie developers making decent money on VR, especially Quest. It just can't support AAA development yet.


It is an amusement park without rides operated by an entity who most people actively distrust.

Facebook/Meta IMO has poisoned the whole social media space to a degree, where the expectation I have for social media platforms in general has become one of "this is getting worse over time". Instagram now sucks more than it sucked before Facebook bought it. Facebook now sucks more than Facebook 15 years ago. Reddit now... You get the point. They could have done nothing except maintenance and neutral technical upkeep and the result would have been better than what we have today. And the only reason why we don't have that better thing is profits (or the lack thereof in the old platforms).

This tells me that capitalism is really bad at organizing social platforms (not that this surprises me).


> by an entity who most people actively distrust.

I do not really think that is true. There is more than 2 billion active users on WhatsApp which is owned by Meta. Many people reading hackernews distrust them, but that is a tiny, tiny fraction of the general population: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306022/whatsapp-global-...


I wouldn't assume using something means people trust it.

I pay my taxes, but I don't trust the US government. For that matter, I don't trust my grocery store either but I still need food.


They did that Vader thing for the Oculus (Vader Immortal).

What boggles my mind is why did Facebook just not buy Second Life directly.


Have you logged into second life of late?

Porn powers the second life economy.

It is an interesting place, but if FB bought it the moral torchbearers would burn the investment to the ground.


I was thinking more of the platform to run a new blank world not the mess that current one is.


What are the odds that would turn into FacePorn Life within less than six months?


Guaranteed lol


There was also Secrets of the Empire[1], but AFAIK The Void no longer exists. It's too bad - the haptic/physical-props-and-environment aspect worked really well IMO.

[1] https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Star_Wars:_Secrets_of_the_E...


> interactive VR episodes

Sounds like a video game to me, something that Disney has weirdly struggled with, having tried on several times to get into video games big time, only to shy away at the huge expense and challenge.

At the moment they've circled back to merely licensing out their IPs to other publishers.

Disney should get more into video games, and VR is great for video games.

VR for "metaverse" whatever it is that is. Not so sure!


>is that it it's an amusement park without any rides

And even if it had rides, they wouldn't be that amusing...


The last time I went to Universal in LA, all the rides had a VR component to them, the real-life amusement parks are turning to VR + motion. Some of these were jiggly seats, others had flying platforms, and others pulled you in a train through VR scenes. (The ride that people liked the least was minions, which just had tipping and shaking seats, but the 3D made people sick.)


> Experiences are what sell new entertainment technologies and Disney owns the IP to some pretty compelling experiences.

This is the refrain of Disney's theme park marketing, but I disagree. It's the fact that people want to say they were there. It's 100% the brand and nothing more. Marketing doesn't have to be, and often isn't, rational.

This is at the absolute core of why theme park experiences sell but VR does not. Nobody cares if you "experienced" something in the comfort of your own home. Until the price of VR comes down to absolute rock bottom prices, there will not be acceptance of "VR experiences" and even so it's still a gamble whether anyone cares enough to buy that to experience on a whim frequently vs plan a vacation around it... I'm pretty sure it's the latter.


I am going to sorta disagree. I see your point and I am sure there is some of that. But hands down Disney parks are some of the best parks I have been to. With universal being a very close second. I am also probably never going back (price ratio is wrong and getting worse).

In this case a VR exp would have to feel like going to a park. However, there is something that is missing (or many somethings). You hanging with your friends and family. Now they could also all go get headsets and you hang together. But that seems oddly not the same. Buying that overpriced popcorn and basically 'fair food' is also part of it. Disney would have the best shot at making a park into a game. As most of their rides are 'dark rides'. Basically trains going thru experiences. A fixed park is little more than a carnival but in a fixed location and cleaned up nicely with theming. VR strips out the carnival aspects and is only theming. That strips out part of what you are going for.

I have also been to parks all by myself. That is what wearing a VR headset would feel like. It is not a good experience. You could say 'oh all your friends could get headsets too'. True but at that point you are now looking at similar costs as just going to the parks.


Oh man, this is not correct. As a dad who just went back to Disney after not having gone since I was 11 years old... We made fun of, "the brand" the entire time. All our friends would look down on us for handing over our hard earned money to a pretty gross fascist organization like Disney. We posted pictures, but only of our experiences.

For myself (a sample size of 1) it is all about the magical experiences and memories my child gets from experiencing a fantasy world of fun rides and adventure.


But that is the brand. Even if you visited ironically to prove to yourself that SantaDisney doesn't exist, you still visited.

Brands don't care if you buy them ironically. They only care that you give them money.

Mass indifference would be much more deadly to Disney.

And mass indifference is where most of the the public are with VR. It's fun of a kind, but it's a long way short of a compelling irrational magic.

Even compared to other "magic" products like the iPhone.

Meta have failed to make any magic. I don't think Zuck even knows what magic is.

Apple do know what magic is. But gambling they can inject it into their VR proposition is a risky bet.


My son cried tears of joy after getting off the Cars ride. His childhood imaginary friends were brought to life in such a compelling, thrilling, nostalgic way that he was brought to tears at 15.

He got to build a droid and he went outside and used it to entertain and enthrall another smaller child for 45 minutes.

He got to live, for a day, in an immersive and joyous world he never imagined he could see and touch and be a part of.

Its not irony. I bought the magic DESPITE a poisoned brand.

If it were available in VR I'd buy it in VR.


> It's 100% the brand and nothing more.

What is you basis for saying that?

> Nobody cares if you "experienced" something in the comfort of your own home.

By that rationale nobody would play vide games.

I believe it comes down to the experience. The experience of VR is simply not good enough to attract people.


Tbh as long as there is no easy to use working personal vr suite, then it is not an alternative to experience it by yourself.

Vr is fun but virtual.


Not to be pedantic, but even with a personal VR suite, it's still virtual.

A flight sim, regardless of how sophisticated, is still always going to be of a lesser experience than real flying unless you can actually die in the sim.

I'm not suggesting that an ideal flight sim should kill the player if they crash, but rather suggesting that, as an example, a pilot behind the controls of a real plane that has to make a series of instantaneous decisions when a dangerous situation comes up like engine failure will have been "battle tested" in a very real way where his/her life was literally on the line.

Of course not having to risk your life is also a big advantage of virtual as well.


You are onto something there. Karaoke already is a thing, and VR-Series reenactment might have the same appeal.


The whole metaverse thing has felt like a buzzword-without-meaning that was never going to live up to the hype (at least in any meaningful good way), but still sucks for the people losing the jobs.


The metaverse is the ultimate, final instance of the "... but on a computer!" fallacy [1], even moreso than the "virtual worlds" that prompted me to originally write that article. It's reality... but on a computer!

We already have a reality. It's called reality. The entire value proposition of computers is to do things reality couldn't already do. Replicating reality, but poorly, is a complete and utter waste of time.

Or, to put it another way... no, the metaverse isn't happening. Or to put it yet another way, it already happened and the silly science-fiction descended ideas about what it would look like are as silly as the idea that in the future everyone will constantly wear form-fitting jumpsuits.

The metaverse is an actively stupid idea. When the useful bits and pieces are reified over the next couple of decades, I'll still be right, because those things won't be "the metaverse", they'll still be extensions of the real things that are not only happening now, but have already been happening for decades, including yea verily this very site we're communicating on right now, which would not even remotely be improved in any sense whatsoever by being "in the metaverse".

[1]: https://jerf.org/iri/post/2916/ (Rereading that ten years later, it seems education has hardly gotten anywhere. Still BOAC-ville.)


It may finally take off if/when VR is just another feature of portable, broadly popular AR glasses.

Until then, it loses for anything but niche applications, because it's doomed by the popularity of the smartphone. Nobody wants a social network (or whatever) that can't be reached from their smartphone, or that sucks to use on there, which means nobody wants VR as the primary interface to anything, making it rather pointless.

The whole market is spinning its wheels until or unless someone finally manages to get normal people excited about AR glasses, which means some serious hardware advancements. Whatever's the "next big thing" has to be as portable and usable-everywhere as smartphones, or it's doomed. The Web boom among normal folks wasn't because they started sitting at desktop computers way, way more, but because computers got ultra-portable and cellular Internet got cheap enough to actually use. They're not going to clamber to join anything that they can't comfortably and non-dorkily use at a coffee shop or in line at the grocery store or while sitting on the couch watching Netflix or what have you.


Right. Second Life was the metaverse 20 years ago, they even sold real state. It slowly died for a reason.


And for those of us who played around w 2nd life, I’ve yet to see a meta verse demo that was much different than what I remember.


I haven't played around with Second Life and it still looks like Second Life to me too. Except visibly obviously less populated.

Put that one down in the history books as being way ahead of its time. More honest, too.


I remember on my first day teleporting into a random location around some mansion, and an expensive-looking female avatar yelled at me how dare I spawn at a private property. Later I ran through some bars and shops and never visited this swamp again.


I always preferred Active Worlds personally.


I agree, and one can say “but videogames” however that doesn’t seem to be what any of this is reaching for. People play “realistic” videogames, which has an element of reality in creating a 3D world, but it tries to tell a story that one can escape into away from our everyday lives. Instead the point for the Zuckerberg metaverse is in mirroring reality but with even more control given to the corporate machine to feed you ads and convince you to buy more things. Who wants a hyperreality built by advertisers? That sounds like hell.


It reminds me of the brief fad when some folks really thought VRML or 3D Java or Flash interfaces to websites was going to be The Future not just for games or art project, but general web navigation. Turned out to suck for nearly everything, total dead-end.


Flash did end up influencing the animations of CSS. I'm not sure about the other technologies you mentioned, but I think the delineation here may be that the idea was the future, not the tech.


No, I don't mean 3D animated elements, I mean 3D interfaces.

Think like if you went to Amazon's website and had to navigate product categories by moving around in an FPS-like interface. This was a thing for a while—it never went big, but there was real excitement around it and some effort was put into it, only to find that (obviously) it sucks for anything but games (duh) and maybe art projects of some kinds.


Somewhat apropos:

"The future is a dead mall - Decentraland and the Metaverse"

https://youtu.be/EiZhdpLXZ8Q


What is fascinating about that there is just absolutely nothing good there. It isn't a case of a decaying thing, or a thing that contained a scam. The entire thing is nothing, rotten, worse than any videogame. It's really quite amazing.

It would be not notable at all except, there is a huge amount of money being passed around in it in order to achieve basically nothing.

The dreams about the metaverse discussed at the beginning are also just wild and bizarre. It seems to me that a lot of tech people and investor types are just bored and letting their imaginations run wild. AI taking over the world, living fully inside the metaverse, every object in the world being inside the metaverse to the point where the metaverse is considered more accurate than reality etc. They may as well be talking about time travel or faster than light travel. In reality we have...a worse version of second life


It's a shame that decentraland got millions to create a cold empty place , while open source 3d worlds like opensimulator which have a few thousand enthusiastic users, even willing to pay for their digital lives, remain completely unfunded and abandoned


I watched this yesterday. For anyone wondering:

It is long but worth a watch. You don't need to stare at the screen the entire time - if you can hear it and look up occasionally, it's fine.


Also watched it yesterday and I really can just summarise the video like this:

Massive crypto scam by people who are now bound to overhype the whole thing. Regular folks fall for it because they buy into the vision and have to believe otherwise everything falls apart. Companies fall for it because FOMO. Incredibly cultish.

The video is good but I don’t think it is worth the watch unless you have morbid curiosity about that particular project, or you want some crypto related cathartic release. I don’t feel better knowing the gory details of how terrible everyone and everything is in this circle.


I agree with you. His 'Line Goes Up' and 'In Search of a Flat Earth' video essays have a lot more meat on the bone than this one.


> It is long but worth a watch

Hadn't clicked the link yet but just reading that made me think "Oh I bet it's Folding Ideas!"

Wasn't disappointed. Thanks OP for the link.


If you're like me, it's probably because of the "Line Goes Up – The Problem With NFTs"[1] video he did. I think it might be the only long YouTube video I watched more than once.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g


That's very relevant: some people here are discussing the viability of VR and/or online games - these already exist, and are not commonly thought of as the meta verse. You don't need the meta verse to create a game!

The metaverse is businesses pushing for a platform which brings nothing of value, just for them to extract rent from those using it.


Facebook's approach to the Metaverse is a classic example of building based on "what's in it for us", not "what's in it for them?"

Thinking "what's in it for us" leads you to build a universe that you get to lord over. Putting interesting things that people want in it is someone else's problem.

Thinking "what's in it for them" leads you to build a single interesting thing people want. Then you expand it into a universe from there.


I think Zuckerberg assumed that what's in it for the user would be the same as it's always been at Facebook - socialize with your family and friends.

But why would I expect VR to be better than a Zoom call when Zoom calls with family and friends are already so wonky? Do I want to endure the same weird audio/video connectivity crap, only made even more uncanny by being immersed in it? Seems more honest to just keep it on a screen.


It wouldve been cool if they weren't so bloated/incompetent. The glorified skype usecase was always lame to me.

The potential for workflow efficiency (you can effectively have as many monitors as you want with the profile of a VR headset, remote work is even more portable than a laptop, looking at another desktop can be just as intuitive as another monitor on your own, more immersive and tune-able environment to focus on work) & display of data in 3d that is otherwise too unnavigable in 2D were really promising. Maybe we'll get there in another 10 years when the VR tech cycle completes its orbit again.


I havent really tried to use monitors in VR, but is it possible to read small text on what would be a monitor possible? With my pure guess, I imagine the resolution makes it difficult to read unless the monitor is massive in the world, which im not sure is something I would enjoy.

Not saying its something that couldn't be improved, id just be interested in hearing from someone that has tried it


The monitor can be any size you want it to be. Thats the best part, it's entirely virtual and customizable. It's really not much different than a physical one except for the hardware buttons and individual brightness/contrast settings.


But it's not really about the size, it's about the resolution and image quality. You are rendering a monitor inside another monitor, and you simply can't "display" an IPS 4K 144hz monitor through a LCD FHD 50hz one.


Fair point, though I wouldn't draw such a direct equivalent since VR is positional. What is the resolution x360degrees?

I didn't experience any clarity issues personally but yeah the resolutions aren't always as high (which is why abandoning it at this stage is a shame) and refresh rate certainly isn't high enough.


>> Expect VR to be better than zoom

It's worse, why would I expect VR to be better than facebook video. I think facebook video is worse than zoom, to the point that internal employees will use zoom for meeting sometimes.

I feel like they should have built the world's best group video/audio product in 2 months, made it free, and used that momentum for metaverse


Also completely missing the part of the population who likes async communication with friends and family via any sort of messenger or text, and deliberately not anything interactive like video. But ok, we might be a minority.


Went in expecting to see at least a 1000 employees laid off.. but 50? Can that even be called a 'Division'? Is that Division on par with other divisions Disney runs, like Disney Studios (Marvel Studios, Disney, Pixar...), Streaming (Disney+, ESPN+) or the Theme Park division?


I don't think Disney had any metaverse building ambitions. This "metaverse" team was probably working on designing NFTs and digital "assets" for any metaverse that emerges.

This is an uninformed take based on recollections of what they've released and my understanding of Disney's competencies.

Somebody watching closely will hopefully have more insight.


I had assumed it was a marketing department set up to try and get more superheros into Fortnite.


Which sounds like it could be why it isn't a "division" any more. VR feels like an all-or-nothing play where Disney throwing a bunch of Disney IP, +AAA quality worlds, PR & marketing dollars and carefully-selected hardware partnerships could mainstream VR as family friendly entertainment, whereas making assets for other people's open worlds participated in by a niche group of adult men seems like the sort of thing that's more likely to lead to reputation damage than significant revenue streams


My guess from having worked in close proximity to the executives involved is that it was more of a skunkworks/prototyping group, possibly partnering with ILMxLab, Pixar, Disney Animation, and the streaming group. While Disney is not really a tech company, there are pockets of high end expertise which I think are relevant to the loosely defined “metaverse.”

Mike White, the exec leading the group, reported into Kareem Daniel, who was central to Chapek’s vision of Disney. So it was a significant role. Mind you, Daniel was fired about five seconds after Iger returned.


Terminology varies widely between companies but terms like "division" are usually based on position in the org chart rather than size. It looks like the metaverse division was organized under Mike White, whose title appears to have been "SVP of next-generation storytelling." It's common for a group that reports at the SVP level to be called a division, even if its small. The higher up in the org chart you find a group, the more important it probably is to the strategic focus of the company, even if it's small.


That not how the word "division" works when talking about business, Instagram was made of 10 people when it already had billions of users and if Disney or anyone else had bought them it would certainly be a "division" given that their tasks are a separate entity from their rest of the org.


When I onboarded at IBM, during legal and compliance training they said “the easiest way to get promoted to executive at IBM is to do something wrong, and get quoted in the press about it”. The idea being: the media will refer to anyone who works for a company as an ‘executive’ regardless of how accurate that term is to their actual role.

Similarly, in news reporting, every department is a ‘division’.


It was one of Bob Chapek's visions, so as expected was extremely half arsed.

He had very little concept of what Disney should be doing so just thew out a bunch of ideas with very little budget and expected them to work, whilst also penny pinching beyond belief.


I wouldn't take their use of "division" too seriously.


VR, meta verse always seemed overhyped to me. Combine real time 3D model generated from MetaHuman + AR + ChatGPT + voice and you have a business that will dwarf Apple. I bet people would easily pay 100/month for AR companion based on their celeb crush or whatever other AR companion they crave.


Possibly interestingly, a Japanese Anime series called Dennou Coil (2007) has very well thought out AR. eg:

* https://youtu.be/hSm_vG586II?t=38 (safe for work, as is the whole series)

* https://youtu.be/hSm_vG586II?t=212

The anime series itself is really good. Kind of a science-fiction mystery story.


Seriously, anyone with an interest in AR/VR and even a passing tolerance for anime ought to give Dennou Coil a chance. For those curious, it's better than just safe for work, it's a family friendly series that you could watch with your kids (or your parents).


Just remembered another anime that also shows AR as a daily life thing, The Orbital Children:

* https://youtu.be/6vJPJHhs2Xs (also safe for work)

That one has a less fleshed out / "natural" use of AR compared to Dennou Coil, but it's still pretty good.

It's only 6 episodes, and should be available on Netflix in most countries already. Not sure if Dennou Coil is.


With both series written and directed by Mitsuo Iso, who also contributed to storyboards, key animation, and digital effects. Iso had a remarkable career and notable animation style even well before Dennou Coil. It's only unfortunate that there's such massive gap between productions of his own original works.


Thanks. Been always looking for something similar to Dennou Coil, and now this arrives, and by the same author! A very nice surprise


Dennou Coil! Really on a whole new level, definitely a must watch for everyone reading this, great story(ies).


My biggest issue has always been that users are really damn good at immersing themselves using just a screen and a controller, and that's about a hundred times more convenient than any VR system.


> users are really damn good at immersing themselves using just a screen and a controller

Not only that, but VR/AR doesn't solve any incremental immersion blockers. My brain is very good at 'not looking away from the screen,' it's awful at overriding my inner ear balance, temperature sense, smell sense, circadian rhythm, etc.


Right. When a twenty year old Gameboy advance game can make someone let out a blood-curdling scream, how are you supposed to convince them that now they need strap something to their head and hands?

VR is absolutely breathtaking at transporting you. Oculus Welcome with its cosy camper van and robot was almost a religious experience for me. But VR doesn't make video games one iota more fun to play. At least not enough to justify the expense and inconvenience. Especially since the price of admission seems to be going up.


The only game I’ve played on VR that is worth standing for two hours is Population One, and then only when you have a good squad that will talk and strategize.

I don’t know what it is exactly about that game, but it’s really the only good VR game (and it’s great!)


that limits you to things you can do while watching the screen. Wanna to actually go rollerblading with Margot Robbie or have Tony Hawk teach you to do tricks? or ...


> Wanna to actually go rollerblading with Margot Robbie or have Tony Hawk teach you to do tricks?

Is anyone expecting this as a realistic possibility? As AR glasses are today they would need to become much more powerful while also much smaller. (With the current glasses it feels one might snap their neck in a rollerblading tumble very easily just because of the added weight and lever arm on the head.)


I remember being very very engaged in Pong. It doesn't mean FPSes never happened or aren't valuable.


Were people still playing Pong seven years after the release of the Atari 2600? Because that's where we currently are in the timeline of VR.


Sure but that limits the applications. Want to have Gordon Ramsey to advise you while you are cooking? Or have r2d2 roaming your house? or play poker at your actual house with lock stock and two smoking barrels characters? and so on ...


That would be fucking wild. Gordan Ramsey standing next to you treating you like shit while you're trying to cook. Screaming at you like on the show and making jokes along the way

I'd totally pay for that (I'm serious).


Hopefully the AR isn't too good to avoid potential future headlines like:

  "Man kills wife in fit of rage, throwing knife at virtual Gordan Ramsey"
   - Says "he didn't see her behind the Gordan Ramsey avatar"


Lol. Or even "man sees Gordon Ramsey in kitchen with wife..."


Reading that back, it really could have done with a comma after the "good".

Sounds very different without one. (!)


guy should have spent more time practicing his cooking skills, and less time on knife-throwing.


we are talking about AR :)


Good point. Just changed VR -> AR. :)


But I don't want any of those things. I'm sure each of them would be an interesting novelty for 5 minutes.


good then you don't use it. I personally would find talking to say Richard Feynman seating in my living room way more engaging for learning physics than some boring prof in a huge lecture hall.


Sure, and having Niccolo Paganini playing violin in your personal concert hall would be better than going to a random orchestra.

But that is not what you'd be getting. You can very well listen to Feynman's pre-recorded lectures on YouTube today, and that's the best than can be done. Listening to the same clip being played while some image of him is projected on your glasses to make it look like he's in your living room will not improve the experience.


Have you used chatGPT 4 much? I'd try it before coming to this conclusion. And yes you can train a model for Feynman's voice and movements based on video's that we have.


You seem be be claiming that having a conversation with GPT-4 would be as enlightening as having a conversation with Richard Feynman, and that the only missing piece is AR good enough to replay it in your living room instead of on a screen. I promise you, you are much more confident in GPT-4's abilities if you really think thia than it's most adoring creator.


Yes, and ChatGPT sucks. (Unless you really love to talk to the world's most sanitized ad copy; but to each his own, I won't judge.)


I'm a physicist and would be beyond thrilled to talk with Richard Feynman in my living room, it feels like VR only solves the "in my living room" part of the equation. I would fully appreciate just having a video call with Prof. Feynman (that's how I speak to most living physicists I know). Is this tech actually out there?

The closest I've seen is tech that would put his face and voice over the answers that come from chat GPT. Again, with no respect to the late professor, but his appearance is again the least interesting part "talk with Rchiard Feynman" is his appearance and voice. If I could get his help on some of my research, I wouldn't care if he looked like a blob fish and had the voice of Foghorn Leghorn. On the other hand, if I'm just getting ChatGPT answers, then there's no reason not to just make it look like the Crypt Keeper.


> Want to have Gordon Ramsey to advise you while you are cooking?

We got that way back when god invented the book. Or I could prop my phone up against the back of the counter and have a little youtube in my field of view.


Can you use AR goggles while cooking? Won't they get steamed up?


We have "onion" googles in our kitchen already.


can you cook in real glasses ?


I can’t cook to begin with


the whole thing is stupid. are you suppose to be cooking with digital onions?


Digital onions are a microtransaction of 99 cents.


To do those things you're already going to have to make VR an order of magnitude more convenient than it currently is, which means it's not relevant to my comment.


I am not talking about VR I am talking about AR.


Then why did you reply to a comment about VR?


Because most companies were looking at both but over-focusing on VR


VR ping pong is awesome. You never have to chase for the missed ball!


>You never have to chase for the missed ball!

That's a feature? You can do that with a real ping pong ball... I'd love to not have to do it...


I don’t think you understand the scale of “dwarfing” Apple


Apple really isn't all that. Technically, much meh. Mindshare/Fashion statement is where it's at.

That can change.


I think we're talking about market cap here and being a fashion company or a tech company doesn't really make a difference.


Wow, you really do not understand Apple, and you’re even proud of that.


I understand it's a cult like following, which I suppose is what you meant without giving any more details


The immersive VR rides that they are coming up with at the amusement parks are pretty good. The Avatar Dragon ride, Rise of the Resistance, etc...Universal Studios is going in this direction more aggressively, however it seems (just check out the new Mario ride).


I think you're confusing rides, Flight of Passage (Avatar) to the best of my knowledge is not VR (maybe traditional 3D glasses), Rise is definitely not VR (not even 3D) and Mario Kart is AR with a headset overlaying graphics over physical sets. None of them are VR in the traditional sense of the word.

The biggest test of VR at theme parks in the US came with various Six Flags around the country strapping VR goggles (Samsung IIRC) on some of their coasters and drop towers. They're pretty widely regarded as failures. I got to try two of them and they definitely were not a plus to the ride experience, especially on a drop tower where the view from the top is half the fun.


They are immersive, not using glasses, but projected environments and some kind of movement device being ridden. Why not just call it more expensive VR without headgear at that point?


The Mario kart ride is probably the most disappointing I’ve ridden in my life. It’s just a slow roller coaster with an overlay of other karts using HoloLens.


Holodeck.

You put the goggles on and ask for Einstein and a chalk board. Then you have a conversation.


The ST:TNG holodeck was a crutch for bad writing. It was even worse than ST:TOS's time travel.

I hope the XR future is more creative.


The point of useful technology is to make things more convenient. This is less convienient than typing queries on a keyboard, even if there were no HMD involved.


If Einstein creates some 3D graphs or plays a simulation to make his point, it will be more convenient to already be in that world.


It's a shame AR technology is vaporware and doesn't really exist yet.


only if you are incredibly weird. but if you think so, sounds like a good start-up.


If you're old enough to remember Tamagotchi, consider how attached some people got to something that basic.


I'm now imagining a "Talk with your AI-powered pets" interface that is a pseudo-ChatGPT style interface that just responds to everything you say with "woof" or "miaow" :D

(I'm surprised that afaik nobody has really cracked the "Tamagotchi" pet care formula on smartphones, which seemed ideally suited to a visually and sonically enhanced version of the same basic ritual)


I think part of the problem of doing it on a smartphone is that software-only breaks the illusion in a way that makes it necessary to go further to counter it. I think people find it harder to connect to something they see as "just software" without any embodiment to the point that we connect more easily to something "dumber" if it's embodied in some way or other or we can imagine it to be.

For that reason, I suspect that to do it with a smartphone, you'd do better with a chatbot talking to users via e.g. Whatsapp or another messenger than a custom app, because people associate messengers with real people rather than a "game".


Keyword "got", that fad lasted like all of six months.


>only if you are incredibly weird

Pretty sure people had the exact reaction when online dating came out thinking you must be some social outcast. Or when some people chose to WFH way before it became remotely normal and were branded antisocial for choosing to not be in the office with the colleagues.

Why be such a hater? I don't get it.

Just because some people are into different things than you or what society deems 'normal' doesn't make them weirdoes.


i do think having a relationship with an ai is pretty weird, but i can kind of understand it - a meme that has been around a bit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idoru . and it doesn't mean i hate people who want to do this.


>i do think having a relationship with an ai is pretty weird

Mate, have you seen how much money onlyfans girls are raking in from just talking to simps or other lonely and desperate men online? Can be as high as millions USD per month. And they don't even do any explicit nudity for their money, they just send ludes and texts. And the texts are usually written by some people the girl hired since she can't reply to all of them. Those guys are getting taken to the cleaners.

Seems like a niche that could be filled via an AI for cheaper. ChatGPT-3 had some awesome humor before it got lobotomized to be a mundane question answering drone. Could probably replace some standup comedians too.


Or lonely or bored. Want a cyberpunk cyborg dog that can speak in a voice of darth vader? Want Cara Delevingne to be your english lang tutor? Want to pair program with Linus Torvalds? Want Neytiri from Avatar to be your personal Yoga instructor?


I can’t imagine wanting any AR company myself; I see it’s benefit to certain groups like the elderly but hope I never have to use such a startup


> I can’t imagine wanting any AR company myself;

Glad I'm not the only one. I don't see the appeal at all.


The people in here are certainly the minority, at least for now. I hope it will remain that way, but you never know.


> like the elderly

really? i cannot imagine strapping my late mum into some vr headset.


No but I heard Alexa had proved useful for elderly loneliness and I imagine this tech will improve there - I agree I don’t see them sat in an Oculus at a gaming rig lol


nope, don't want any of them, though i must admit i quite like cara.


I find it hard to believe that you can not come up with a single AR scenario that will either make learning process, work process or entertainment option more fun.


I'd rather just have a real person or go it alone.

Maybe I'm too old or too anti-social, but using an AR or VR for those things seems kind of sad and depressing to me.


For me, I think it's that I consume text much faster than e.g. video or someone talking, and it doesn't distract me.

I just want to be left alone when I want to focus and learn things. I love using ChatGPT to explore a subject now, though, because it's pure text and I am driving it, so I can totally see people who are more visual and social learners want something similar "packaged up" in an avatar.


isn't this about vr rather than ar? i can certainly think about situations where ar would be useful, though none have been demonstrated to be viable yet - rather the reverse when you think of things like google glass.


The whole premise of my comment Meta, Disney etc overfocused on VR when AR will be way bigger market and we have the tech that will make it viable.


i don't think that, lovely though she is, i wan't cara to pop up in my glasses (which, because of bad eyesight, i wear all the time) and no, i do not think we have the technology, particularly batteries.

i will admit that if i could ask my glasses "where is the nearest atm?" and it then popped up an arrow pointing at it, i might pay for that. but that means stuffing a lot of hardware into the frames - about the equivalent of a high-end smartphone.


What is a metahuman?


In this context, it's like a crappy social media avatar, but in 3D.

In other contexts, it's rich white guys dreaming of leaving their puny body and becoming Ubermech with the help of tech...



Forget Disney and Meta. Epic just shipped the metaverse. It's here. Now.

Epic just shipped the Unreal Engine editor as a plug-in for Fortnite. Most of the things you can do with Unreal Engine as a game developer are now available to Fortnite users. What's created doesn't have to look anything like Fortnite.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGck_8QNHTk


Oh look, it's gmod.


Pretty cool. Reminds me a bit of Cube 2: Sauerbraten, which had realtime collaborative editing, too. Pretty cool thing for the age it came out in, and it's open source.


metaverse is just a map editor?


Why should this be called the metaverse?


So Epic can make the argument to courts, regulators, investors etc. that they have created something ground-breaking and unique and vital to society.

Which of course Apple, Google and Meta should not be able to monetise - only them.


I mean fortnite has had already had film festivals, and "concert" experiences you can experience with your friends. I've been through some, and its kinda fun.

They seem to be wanting to build the tools, to build that. They know its a tough road, and being resourced starved (compared to facebook) they're trying to do it a more "open" way with the other game engines participating (He mentions Godot, Unity in his talk), artists etc. Its part of Tim Sweeney's thing to break down walled gardens. Epic being privately held, sort of doesn't have to deal with shareholders...

https://youtu.be/akIqVM0gh4w?t=4074


> being resource starved (compared to facebook)

Not really. Epic has Unreal Editor, is a game development company, and runs the largest MMO. So they know what they're doing in that space. Facebook didn't.

Here's Matthew Ball VC's feature list for a metaverse.

* Be persistent.

Epic has that. That's a basic property of a metaverse.

* Be synchronous and live

Like any MMO, yes.

* Be without any cap to concurrent users

At 3.5 million concurrent users, they're #1 at scaling.

* Be a fully functioning economy – individuals and businesses will be able to create, own, invest, sell, and be rewarded for an incredibly wide range of “work” that produces “value” that is recognized by others.

They kind of have that, although it's mostly game objects.

* Be an experience that spans both the digital and physical worlds, private and public networks/experiences, and open and closed platforms

That's talked about, but not currently delivered.

* Offer unprecedented interoperability of data, digital items/assets, content, and so on across each of these experiences – your Counter-Strike gun skin, for example, could also be used to decorate a gun in Fortnite

Technically, maybe. Operationally, no. They prohibit imports which violate intellectual property law. But you can create a mesh yourself and upload.

* Be populated by “content” and “experiences” created and operated by an incredibly wide range of contributors...

They have that.

What makes it all work is that they can deliver this experience with the visual quality and responsiveness gamers expect. Facebook failed at that. So did Decentraland. Those looked like games from 1990.


seems like the metaverse hype train got derailed by the GPT hype train


i'm not sure metaverse ever really had a hype train, i don't think anyone i know was excited by it


Nobody even knew what the Metaverse was actually supposed to be, but once Facebook renamed itself to Meta every big company wanted to have their part of the Metaverse too. If Zuckerberg spends billions on it, it must be important after all.

It was quite ridiculous how everybody suddenly kept talking about Metaverse without there even being as much as a vague idea how it would look like. Even Facebook's own presentation on the Metaverse was devoid of vision and just kept repeating stuff that Playstation Home did 10 years ago or that Habitat did over 35(!) years ago. Avatars, customization, multiplayer and that was it. Nothing wrong with that, but that's not a Metaverse, that's just a regular old multiplayer social app of which we had numerous in the last few decades, both inside and outside of VR. There was no vision of how to evolve that beyond that, even the really obvious stuff was nowhere to be seen (online shopping in VR, anybody?).

Some companies tried to mix some crypto bullshit into it to make another Second Life happen, but even that's not new, LindenLabs already had their own VR game that failed with Sansar.

Metaverse was really hype about nothing, just Zuckerberg spending billions on something trying to stay relevant and everybody else wanting their piece of the cake too. Took them a while to realize that there never was any cake to begin with.

Meanwhile people that care about VR just hang around in VRChat or play VR games, without any of that Metaverse nonsense.


Zuckerberg is cornered. His company has bought too many upstarts who became ginormous; Instagram, WhatsApp. So regulatory-wise, if he ever tries that again he'll be stopped. The purchase of upstart social graphs was the whole Facebook strategy to stay relevant and display aggressive growth to justify the insane valuation.

Now without that ability, you need to demonstrate you can aggressively grow in newer, exciting markets. What underdeveloped technology markets with social media potential exist outside of this vague idea around VR? Can you name any?

The problem with the metaverse is not that Zuckerberg went in that direction, it's that he executed so poorly and so publicly that he's lost any sort of goodwill from that attempt at a new market. If he wasn't literally un-firable, he'd be have long lost his CEO position.


I'm excited by the idea, but repelled by Facebook's vision of it. An open-standards metaverse would be interesting, especially with the prospect of infinite AI-generated content.


Folding Ideas released an excellent video essay recently examining the concept of the metaverse and how it suffers from somewhat of a “No True Scotsman Problem” https://youtu.be/EiZhdpLXZ8Q


I'm pretty excited by the insane amount of R&D FB is doing on the hardware, but strongly repulsed by their software.


What vision exactly? A requirement of things like a facebook login in apps? Not snarky, genuinely curious what the concrete concern is.


The NVIDIA vision of it is pretty great, the industrial meta verse. Check their GTC demo with BMW.


Afaik Meta is a founding member of The Metaverse Standards Forum: https://metaverse-standards.org/ Not sure how much of it is built into Horizon Worlds.


It seemed to me like FB was desperate for a new identity esp. post Cambridge Analytica, and VR served as a convenient vehicle for that.


Nobody talks about Cambridge Analytica.

The problem is that Facebook and Instagram are "the old thing" and WhatsApp monetization ja hard without pushing users to Signal (or Apple iMessage) while kids spend their time on TikTok instead. Facebook needs to find the next thing after TikTok to pull future generations of users in. And from their view a new world offers tons of ways to monetize.


No end-users I asked over the years knew IG was an FB product. FB could have managed the same thing if building whatever the next big thing needed to happen again.

The wholesale rename of everything is necessary when you're trying to distance yourself from a poisoned past. It's not just about end-users, it's about recruiting and retaining talented employees. The sooner they can make folks disassociate the entire operation from the bad FB name the better. Many engineers aren't interested in telling their friends/family they work for FB, that awful company that enabled the CA scandal etc. Now they'd be able to say they work for Meta, that VR company.


> The wholesale rename of everything is necessary when you're trying to distance yourself from a poisoned past.

Correct, that's why I still called them Facebook, not Meta, in my post. ;)


A lot of crypto scammers were mega hyped.


I’ve looked at the few things out there like decentraland and they’re hilariously bad. Like I can’t tell if they’re being serious. Even Metas offerings are extremely amateurish and unimpressive after who knows how many billions. The headset is impressive but not ready for the general public for some years


It all seems a lot like Second Life or Active Worlds and feels like this has all been tried before. Look at where all those types of games are now.


VRChat exists, and a lot of companies(Meta included) are excited, to be able to make their own fan-made continuations; which are so massive in number it is collectively called the Metaverse.

(Note: /s, not even close to the real definition)


How much of it was momentum carried over from Ready Player One?


My 6yo loved Gorilla Tag, hasn't played it in over a month now though. Whatever hype was there, it's long gone.


Gorilla tag has actually grown by 50% active users in the past 3 months


Maybe. I don't even remotely believe numbers like that anymore. Very much doubt they came from a neutral third-party with access to real data.


More people were hyped by it that ChatGPT, which is mostly a nerdom thing.

People intuitively 'get' the Metaverse, and if it was good, everyone would be doing it.

I remember that crap from like 25 years ago, this is kind of the 3rd try and it failed, but I'm betting the next evolution will hit.

Now it won't be exactly the Metaverse rather just '3D / immersive' but still, it will take over.

I'm worried it's the start of Idiocracy though.


I’ve seen random people on the train talking about ChatGPT. Even groups of middle aged women talking about going to a cafe and suddenly bringing up chatgpt and nobody was confused by the topic. Old people who’ve never mentioned tech to me out of nowhere talked about chatgpt.

ChatGPT doesn’t require “getting”. It just responds in a freakishly human way by standards that have existed up to now.

But literally nobody “intuitively gets” metaverse. It just looks like a crappy Wii edition of Second Life, but proponents (Facebook staff) always seem to say “no dude it’s not like that it all it’s like dude you gotta listen it’s going to dude like revolutionize dude are you listening it’s uhhhhh” and nobody knows wtf it is


The metaverse is a platform. ChatGPT is a product.

Platforms that aren't products for end users are nerdy, especially ones that don't even exist yet.

You aren't going to find an old person start talking to you about a new functions Microsoft added to the Windows SDK, but you could hear them talk about a new feature in a Windows app they use.

>It just looks like a crappy Wii edition of Second Life

The metaverse doesn't exist yet. Someone could make a product like that for the metaverse, but that is just one product. Not all products will look the same, and not all product will boolean heavy into being like second life.


The problem is that Meta did make a product like second life. It's called horizon worlds, and by all accounts it's a pretty awful experience.

They'd almost have been better off not bothering to make it.


This made me understand the metaverse less than I did before. There’s zero chance of a typical person knowing what this is supposed to be.


Random ladies on the train are not using ChatGPT.

They will be using Siri, which already exists, it will just be better.

"But literally nobody “intuitively gets” metaverse"

? The first time you put on a 3D headset you are viscerally 'moved' in a way that ChatGPT can never compete with.

The only problem is, it makes you sick, the graphics are not good, the games are not good etc..

When the 'promise' of Virtual/3D is finally fulfilled, everyone will do it.


> Random ladies on the train are not using ChatGPT.

They most definitely are. Normies find ChatGPT absolutely fascinating for a variety of purposes, whether that's creative or just asking questions. It's basically magic to them.

Meta's "the metaverse" is just any random obscure retro PS1-style game for them.


GPT makes me go 'wow.'

Metaverse make me 'meh.'

Maybe if I hadn't played Everquest in 1999, nor any 3D network game since then, I would have been impressed.


GPT will be an integral part of the metaverse. AI assistants make content much easier to create, and the whole point of the metaverse is aggregating all the content everyone in the world makes. These products are complements and in fact GPT might be meta's saving grace since 3D content is so tedious to make currently.


Or the "Meta is funding the ban against Tiktok" train.


The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy.

I’m sorry, but I couldn’t find any information about the phrase “the Indians are collecting firewood like crazy”. Could you provide more context or details about where you heard or saw this phrase?


Are you using an old version of google? Because I got a ton of hits on the phrase when I searched for it.


I find this whole thing fascinating. Lots of companies making seemingly bad decisions where the "metaverse" is concerned.

Meta/FB dedicating so many resources to this as-yet-truly-defined thing seems silly to me, I'm not sure how they expect to recoup their losses even if a metaverse is established. Disney, as an entertainment company, is actually well set up to see results pretty quickly.

I'm no metaverse fan. I think the simplest question one can ask any corp type talking up the metaverse that cuts through the BS is "what is the metaverse, and how do you get there?" I'm fully aware of the hardware limitations - someone on HN in the last few months has described the hardware challenge as on par with "build me a completely see-through phone," and while not perfect it's a pretty good comparison. I don't see this as something people will decide to enter and remain in for extended periods of time.

But there are definitely use cases, and Disney, of all companies, is placed to take advantage of those use cases, and they decide to drop it.


I think there's some delusion, but there's also some sense to it. Facebook is slowly dying - pushing for a new concept could be a way to regain relevance. They already have a platform for games, so this can be seen as ambitious next step.

Not that I think it will work.


My instinct is that VR and the metaverse will only find real success in the adult entertainment industry.. And some one will try to release AR products, like public speaking confidence aid, that makes everyone around you naked and we'll all feel like we need a break from it all for a few hype-cycles.


> will only find real success in the adult entertainment industry

If you don't see/hear your wife/partner arriving (because of the headset), you are as good as dead.


VR perhaps, but why would you need a "metaverse" for adult entertainment?

It's not like the ability to build and decorate your office impacts your ability to enjoy porn.

I mean sure, perhaps onlyfans will evolve the ability for a model to have some virtual background in which you can attend the show live, but that will never be "your life online connected to everyone" that the metaverse is supposed to be.


Fetishes.


Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: