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"""whether that's true or not is irrelevant - perception is what counts"""

Actually, no. Reality is what counts. I don't bet my money based on perception, and neither I trade with perception in mind. Except if I'm looking to take advantage of some bubble.




I don't bet my money based on perception

Of course you do. Reality is unattainable, perception is all we have. What you're saying is that your perception is different from the average, and that's fine, but it doesn't change my point.

Besides, do you really perceive SAP as a cool company? I certainly don't. Whether it's a good investment or not is a different issue.


"""Of course you do. Reality is unattainable, perception is all we have. What you're saying is that your perception is different from the average, and that's fine, but it doesn't change my point."""

While I understand the pedantic argument, (hey, I've read my Hume), I mean that I don't rely on my "perception" as is, but try to form it based on evidence, facts, numbers and other stuff from the "unattainable reality".

Reality might be ultimately unattainable, but a, say, DNA test for example can show with 100% certainty who the raper is or isn't. And a educated rundown on the numbers, performances, etc, beats perception, especially such as cultivated by PR and the media, anytime.

"""Besides, do you really perceive SAP as a cool company? """

No, but I also don't like "cool" companies. I could care less about the flavor du jour and "ramen to riches" stories. SAP is interesting in it's own way, and invaluable for tons of businesses using their system.


No, but I also don't like "cool" companies. I could care less about the flavor du jour and "ramen to riches" stories. SAP is interesting in it's own way, and invaluable for tons of businesses using their system

But that's the whole point. SAP is boring, and although that's actually good for them - it means they're reliable and dependable -, the TC guy is also right.


>and neither I trade with perception in mind

Then I'd be surprised if you do well in trading. For monetary value; perceived value is value. We have no other means of valuing things monetarily.


Yes, because we all know what a reliable guide to value trading has been over the past three decades.

To some extent entrepreneurship found in technology has been the counter-culture to the con game that the financial markets have become accustomed to.


Again wrong. How do you think entrepreneurs are pricing their wares if not by perceived value? Did you think they were doing something like "labor cost + 20%" or something?

The cost of making something is only used to determine price floor (i.e. if perceived value is lower than the price floor it makes no sense to create this product).


This was originally about trading. Entrepreneurs are not traders, and while in a perfect world they would have a similar set of concerns, but generally not in today's world. (see HFT)

What your model of perceived value isn't accounting for are speculators who are in a market with no real vested interest in the product. The correct amount of speculation within a market can round out extremes but there is a balance. Free markets generally find the best prices for most things and works well in the majority of situations.


"""Then I'd be surprised if you do well in trading. For monetary value; perceived value is value. We have no other means of valuing things monetarily."""

Then I'd be surprised if you do well in long term trading / investing.

Perceived value can change from one day to the next. You don't want to get caught in a bubble.

You better sharpen the "perceived value" everybody, er, perceives, with your OWN value judgement that takes facts, numbers, long term factors etc into account. Else, you're trading blindly based on what everybody else perceives, which is really fickle.


I found a better analogy.

"perceived value is value" but you don't want to invest based on perceived value.

You want to invest based on (your understanding of) the factors that SHAPE the perceived value.

Else, you're behind the curve.




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