If Putin's gone Russia collapses into anarchy and civil war. Putin has spent the last 20 years ensuring that there is no viable "new leader" of Russia. He's structured the Russian state so that every possible person in power has a well-delineated job to do, they all distrust each other, they all report to him, and nobody has the bigger picture. Anyone who gains enough of a following to threaten him gets thrown out of a window or poisoned with polonium. If he didn't do this he would've been ousted years ago.
Countries in the midst of civil war aren't very good at shipping natural gas either. Europe's best hope for not freezing is to go invade Russia, capture the pipelines and gas fields, and staff them with Europeans. Unfortunately this plan has worked out for Europe (and the world) approximately never.
My (extremely limited) understanding is that even if Putin wanted to flip the script and move Russia away from an oligarchy, that he'd be replaced with someone stronger, more heartless, etc.
Does somebody have an idea for how reform could occur in a place that has never really been "free"?
Countries in the midst of civil war aren't very good at shipping natural gas either. Europe's best hope for not freezing is to go invade Russia, capture the pipelines and gas fields, and staff them with Europeans. Unfortunately this plan has worked out for Europe (and the world) approximately never.