Our attrition rate is not that high but when people leave, it's now always to go to an html site (usually WordPress-based). Before it was usually to a Flash-based competitor.
Our HTML5 service is in beta and appears to be promising (for us).
Unfortunately for many Flash developers the bread-and-butter site stuff is going away; if you're not skilled enough to transition into gaming and other such computationally intensive work then best to familiarise yourself with the HTML5 suite, and quickly.
Unreal Engine 3 announced support for exporting to flash. Given that they also support Scaleform it would be possible to write a mini-game in flash running inside UE3 running in a flash player. And if you throw Unity into the mix...
In the end, if Adobe pulls this off, it can focus on what it does best: productivity tools. No longer needing to maintain Actionscript, language tools, or an entire platform in multiple OS.
Many ways to serve it. Many ways to retrieve it. And many ways to convert and play it.
The skills to do those things are perhaps assets.
But the software is all open source and free.
SVG? A bunch of xml is not exactly what vector graphics animation needed.
OK, please do a simple key frame transformation from a circle to a rectangle.
svg is only suitable for simple animations like move or rotate some nodes.