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Exponential smoothing and peak estimation won't help with the fundamental problem, which is that warning based on storage costs alone produces the correct result -- in the sense that funds run out after exactly 7 days -- 90% of the time. Any non-trivial addition of bandwidth costs into the equation is going to hurt far more often than it helps.

Well, it doesn't produce the correct result for us, where bandwidth costs are more than 7 times storage costs, so we get our warning far too late.

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