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most people bought the iPhone 4 on a 24 month contract, those people probably wont by the iPhone 4S due to the high cost of early termination fees for little gain. (of course some people will which is just a bonus).

This cycle is pretty clever as it pretty much guarentees majority of iPhone 4 holders will upgrade to iPhone 5, whilst simaltanously giving a decent bump in sales to people who have had there friends talking up the iPhone 4 for a year a chance to one-up them.

But what about the 3GS people that are coming off their 24 months and were waiting for the 5? Those people might start looking to see what Android has to offer.

I'm one of them and I don't see a compelling enough reason to upgrade at this point (iPhone or Android). Siri looks interesting, but it's not a feature worth locking myself into another 24 month contract for.

All the Australian networks are moving to 4G, so IMO it's a good time to wait for the next gen of LTE handsets. As with the original iPhone, I suspect it was just too early for Apple to switch.

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