Wikipedia sez: "Sasha Polakow-Suransky writes that, in 1979, South Africa was not yet advanced enough to test a nuclear device: "By the first week of October, the State Department had realized that South Africa was probably not the guilty party; Israel was a more likely candidate."[46]"
Weird then that there are a bunch of contemporary State Department memos stating the exact opposite. Apologies for ALL CAPS but I don't feel like retyping all of these:
"THE AEC NEEDS TO ESTABLISH HOW SOUTH AFRICA GOT ITS PRESENT NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY."
"HE NOTED HIS BELIEF THAT THE SUPPOSED "NUCLEAR EVENT" OF LAST SEPTEMBER WAS IN FACT A NUCLEAR WEAPONS TEST BY SOUTH AFRICA. HE URGED THE SECURITY COUNCIL TO CALL FOR A COMPLETE HALT TO ALL NUCLEAR COLLABORATION WITH SOUTH AFRICA, INCLUDING THE EXPORT OF URANIUM FROM SOUTH AFRICA/NAMIBIA. HE STATED THAT THE EX-CHIEF OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH FOR THE ISRAELI ARMY HAD VISITED SOUTH AFRICA III NOVEMBER, 1979 AND DEMANDED TO KNOW WHAT THE PURPOSE OF HIS VISIT HAD BEEN. HE CALLED THE FRG'S DISAVOWAL OF NUCLEAR COLLABORATION WITH SOUTH AFRICA "MORE FICTION THAT FACT""
"THE WC [World Campaign] BELIEVES THAT THE SEPT 22 ALLEGED "NUCLEAR EVENT" WAS IN FACT THE EXPLOSION OF A NUCLEAR DEVICE BY SOUTH AFRICA. THE EVIDENCE FROM THE VELA SATELLITE, THE FACT OF SOUTH AFRICAN SHIP DEPLOYMENTS IN THE AREA ON THAT NIGHT AND THE IONISPHERIC EVIDENCE FROM PUERTO RICO LEFT NO OTHER REASONABLE CONCLUSION;"
"MEANWHILE, EVIDENCE IS PILING UP ON THE SIDE OF A MAN-MADE NUCLEAR EXPLOSION. BESIDES DISCLOSING THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTH AFRICAN NAVAL TASK FORCE AND A RIPPLE IN THE IONOSPHERE THE NIGHT OF SEPT. 22, THE CIA IS TELLING CONGRESS THAT TWO SENSORS INSTEAD OF ONE ABOARD THE VELA SATELLITE DETECTED THE DOUBLE LIGHT FLASH CHARACTERISTIC OF A NUCLEAR EVENT"
"In February 1977, there were reports of a US intelligence estimate that South Africa could make a nuclear weapon by 1981, or within a few months if it initiated a crash programme."
Weird then that there are a bunch of contemporary State Department memos stating the exact opposite. Apologies for ALL CAPS but I don't feel like retyping all of these:
- https://foia.state.gov/DOCUMENTS/1-FY2013/M-2007-03097/DOC_0...
"THE AEC NEEDS TO ESTABLISH HOW SOUTH AFRICA GOT ITS PRESENT NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY."
"HE NOTED HIS BELIEF THAT THE SUPPOSED "NUCLEAR EVENT" OF LAST SEPTEMBER WAS IN FACT A NUCLEAR WEAPONS TEST BY SOUTH AFRICA. HE URGED THE SECURITY COUNCIL TO CALL FOR A COMPLETE HALT TO ALL NUCLEAR COLLABORATION WITH SOUTH AFRICA, INCLUDING THE EXPORT OF URANIUM FROM SOUTH AFRICA/NAMIBIA. HE STATED THAT THE EX-CHIEF OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH FOR THE ISRAELI ARMY HAD VISITED SOUTH AFRICA III NOVEMBER, 1979 AND DEMANDED TO KNOW WHAT THE PURPOSE OF HIS VISIT HAD BEEN. HE CALLED THE FRG'S DISAVOWAL OF NUCLEAR COLLABORATION WITH SOUTH AFRICA "MORE FICTION THAT FACT""
"THE WC [World Campaign] BELIEVES THAT THE SEPT 22 ALLEGED "NUCLEAR EVENT" WAS IN FACT THE EXPLOSION OF A NUCLEAR DEVICE BY SOUTH AFRICA. THE EVIDENCE FROM THE VELA SATELLITE, THE FACT OF SOUTH AFRICAN SHIP DEPLOYMENTS IN THE AREA ON THAT NIGHT AND THE IONISPHERIC EVIDENCE FROM PUERTO RICO LEFT NO OTHER REASONABLE CONCLUSION;"
- https://foia.state.gov/DOCUMENTS/1-FY2013/M-2007-03097/DOC_0...
"MEANWHILE, EVIDENCE IS PILING UP ON THE SIDE OF A MAN-MADE NUCLEAR EXPLOSION. BESIDES DISCLOSING THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTH AFRICAN NAVAL TASK FORCE AND A RIPPLE IN THE IONOSPHERE THE NIGHT OF SEPT. 22, THE CIA IS TELLING CONGRESS THAT TWO SENSORS INSTEAD OF ONE ABOARD THE VELA SATELLITE DETECTED THE DOUBLE LIGHT FLASH CHARACTERISTIC OF A NUCLEAR EVENT"
- https://foia.state.gov/DOCUMENTS/1-FY2013/M-2007-03097/DOC_0... summarizes their entire program. It's hard to make out but the ballpoint pen scribbles on the cover seem to say "South Africa's Nuclear Capability C/O AEC".
"In February 1977, there were reports of a US intelligence estimate that South Africa could make a nuclear weapon by 1981, or within a few months if it initiated a crash programme."