Death by a thousand paper cuts may be a fun way to look at how Facebook could eventually bite the dust, but I think it's simpler. Eventually companies are going to figure out that they need to stop turning things inside out and technology will carry human social interaction instead of human social interaction carrying technology.
The distinction can be subtle, but consider a world where you don't think about the company and technology enabling you to share a moment with a loved one. Do you think about which phone network is carrying your phone call (until it drops)? In the future you probably won't think about checking Twitterbook+, it will all just happen.
And yet people (at least here in the US) have a tendency to apply brand names as generic technology (i.e., "to xerox a paper", "google a term").
So the counterbalance to your argument is that sometimes when a brand is so pervasive, it is synonymous with the technology.
Not sure that's the case for Facebook, but the possibility exists it might be.
> The company’s engineering isn’t especially impressive.
Buddy, your writing isn't especially impressive, and your armchair engineering is impressive only in its astronomical ignorance. The scale at which Facebook operates, volume of data and requests, and cacheability profile of its page views, and its development velocity makes it possibly the most impressive web company in terms of engineering. Granted Google and a handful of other companies are up there as well doing different, and possibly slightly more impressive stuff depending on who you ask, but to suggest Facebook's engineering is middling just paints you as a giant tech buffoon.
Why do you consider them a failure?
I thought Like + comments was pretty damned brilliant, because they make FB part of the infrastructure of so many sites. Plus, anecdotally, every time I turn around another site is rolling out the comments in a big way (like the LA Times recently did).
And does he really think that Facebook and Skype slapped together an integration in one week in response to G+?
FB lists are kind of like G+ groups except they're a PITA to setup and you have to go out of your way to use them when sharing something.
Another thing I hate about FB is the way the entire service is about sharing everything. You have to be really really careful not to overshare anything. In G+ I know exactly what I'm sharing and with whom.
Screw you FB. I hope you die in a fire.
I don't have any strong opinions on Facebook's current and future technology plans. What I do know is that what is publicly known about Facebook user numbers and finances makes them far more similar to Yahoo than Google.
oh, really. Because Google+ is successful??