This is great insight. I'd like to offer a slight alternative for "You just kind of have to minimize the wrongness".
I think a CTO should have several mental models for making decisions. Minimizing wrongness is just one.
Some examples:
- Is this decision reversible?
- Does this choice allow my team to grow technically?
- Will this matter a year from now?
- Is this something I can buy instead of build?
- Is this a core competency that we should invest heavily in?
- Does this decision go against the company or your personal values?
- Is quick and dirty good enough for this?
There are several ways to orient the problem to help make a decision. But the OP is totally correct, this decisions will usually be made without all the data and with a lot of people looking at your decision.
I think a CTO should have several mental models for making decisions. Minimizing wrongness is just one.
Some examples:
- Is this decision reversible?
- Does this choice allow my team to grow technically?
- Will this matter a year from now?
- Is this something I can buy instead of build?
- Is this a core competency that we should invest heavily in?
- Does this decision go against the company or your personal values?
- Is quick and dirty good enough for this?
There are several ways to orient the problem to help make a decision. But the OP is totally correct, this decisions will usually be made without all the data and with a lot of people looking at your decision.