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Yeah I'm going to go ahead and skip "LaserHodl's" opinions on this whole issue.

Did I not hedge enough? Two years ago I was a happy, contented liberal raising a family and working at my job. I still am, but I believe some quite different things about what is happening in the world, which old me would have dismissed out of hand.

Can you synthesize your thoughts on this? I won't dismiss ideas just because of where they come from, but can't wade through a 2 hour podcast to guess at what you might have meant.

For my own part, I have been quite shocked by the leadership vacuum during the pandemic. It's increasingly clear to me that no one is really at the wheel in the larger part of the West, but many are pretending to be steering the ship. I don't assign anything uber-nefarious to it beyond basic human greed, fear, power lust, incompetence and bullshit. A Chinese style government forced on US, would be, to quote Stalin, a "saddle on a cow." There may be some other countries that would cotton on to it quite readily though if the western coalition were to continue to weaken.

I probably won't do a good job, as I'm still wrapping my head around it, but here goes:

The first thing to note is that there is no "big conspiracy". There are conspiracies, but the driving force is that global economy gives rise to certain conditions related to modern monetary theory and currency manipulation that lead to an inevitable market correction. You can see this in the 8ish year short-term cycle, but there is a longer-term cycle known as the Kondratiev wave too. [0][1]

The global elite (known affectionately as "they") is anyone whose incentives are aligned with the current monetary system, and who has the power to reinforce or undermine it. This includes politicians, international bankers, humanitarians, etc. There is no overarching "cabal", but there may be one or more "cartels" fitted to a particular area of human interest. Most of these people probably only implicitly operate in their role as "they". These networks are no more than something like the UN or the WEF, and are often much less formal than that.

The key here for me is that this theory doesn't posit malevolence, but a shared vision for humanity focused on safety, security, stewardship, and prosperity. All good things right? This is just bog-standard progressivism.

But "they" know about the long term debt cycle. They know that we face real crises that will result in mass death and war if not managed, because we've deferred paying down the cost of our economy for so long (think of renewable vs industrial agriculture as a metaphor, erosion is making it harder and harder to get the land to yield crops). The best global policy is to get ahead of this correction by building structures of control and a narrative of self-sacrifice for the greater good in order to make scarce resources stretch. A great way to do this is to appeal to real global problems (climate change, pandemics, cyber attacks, fertility crisis) to influence people's behavior. LaserHodl calls these "Malthusian fear spells", because they will not automatically come true if we actually tackle the problems head-on.

The reasoning in the above article is a great example of this: don't tell people natural immunity works, because the most efficient solution to our public health crisis is universal vaccination, trade-offs against individual liberty, or even individual health, be damned. The intentions may be good; the side effects are going to contribute to the severity of the coming correction. But a submissive population will also be easier to manage in a crisis. Again, none of this may be explicit in the minds of any of "they", it's just a matter of historical perspective, power, and incentives.

Where the rubber meets the road is that LaserHodl claims the short-term debt cycle is set to coincide with the Kondratiev wave in the next decade. Additionally, 2030 is the date that Bitcoin is projected to hit $1MM or so [2], and is the deadline for the WEF's Agenda for Sustainable Development [3].

His (and my) hope is that Bitcoin adoption will drive a grassroots culture of low time preference [4], returning us to a healthy relationship with traditional values. This will in turn solve many of the the real world problems that face us instead of deferring them to future generations. Further, a culture of "opt-out at every level" will serve to undermine the efforts of those who attempt to further centralize government and consolidate power.

It's important to point out that Bitcoin is not a "weapon" against the global elite any more than a lock on your front door is. It's a defensive tool for building individual wealth and agency, which are the cornerstones of any civilization.

[0] https://investing-abc.com/debt-cycles/

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

[2] https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/

[3] https://www.weforum.org/projects/frontier-2030

[4] https://breedlove22.medium.com/money-bitcoin-and-time-part-1...

Thanks for sharing your viewpoint. The Kondratiev wave theory is interesting, but I don't think that's what the global leadership has their eye on. You also seem a bit tied up in the current crypto mania. I think there's a significant risk that Bitcoin and other decentralized crypto will be simply outlawed due to environmental concerns and the loss of control and enforcement they represent, but who knows. On that note, I rather agree that we have a reckoning coming, but think it will be climate and sustainability related. Money (and debt) is just an abstraction after all. The thing it stands in for largely comes down to energy, which is significantly at risk. I do think there's a growing sense that collectivist societies will cope much better with the environmental consequences of the past 250 years of industrial exponential growth. Like nearly every natural phenomenon, what looks exponential is often an s-curve. Hitting a growth plateau or (or even decline) after several hundred years of growth is bound to be painful. Truly no one knows when the bill will come due, but there is a building sense that it will be within this century. That is the thing global leaders are thinking when they say things like "Great Reset."

If the pandemic taught me anything though, it's that people are incredibly resilient and adaptable. Whatever comes, we will collectively figure it out. Might as well sleep easy.

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