I also was a fan - and still am, can't wait to see the next test with Starship - but I'm getting sick of the vaporware around it.
Watch the debunking of Starship on the 'Common Sense Skeptic' channel on Youtube, they do a pretty decent job of explaining why most of the press releases are utter scheiss.
I don’t really understand this comment. I don’t think I’ve even read a press release from SpaceX, most of my exposure to the Starship program has been to videos of Starships flying (and often exploding)… and then another one flies soon after.
So I’m not sure how we can call the Starship program vaporware? There are stainless steel towers flying in Texas - the only vapor is their exhaust.
The most commonly referenced SpaceX "vaporware" I've seen is the late 2018 crewed Falcon Heavy moon fly-by[0] that was announced in early 2017 that never came to pass, but that pretty clearly was what became Yusaku Maezawa's dearMoon Project[1] that's now planned to fly on Starship.
As for why that happened, I think it's pretty obvious.
1. Crew-rating a rocket is no small feat, and with Falcon 9 already crew rated and Starship advancing quickly Falcon Heavy was never going to get enough crewed missions to justify the cost.
2. If you were picking which tin can to hurdle through space for a week with a few others in, would it be the one with the internal pressurized volume of a minivan (Crew Dragon) or the one with the internal pressurized volume greater than that of an Airbus A380 (Starship)?
I'm unfamiliar with the debunking of starship video, but what's there to "debunk"? Spacex is trying to build new rockets. Either the rockets fly and land, or they do not. Either the cost per launch (cost per launch paid to spacex is transparent in a variety of contract submissions) is lowered, or it isn't. They will try to fly rockets, land them, and have that cost a certain amount. Kind of hard to be vaporware when the reality of the flights are livestreamed and the costs are seen in the contracts they bid.
I’ve seen that video and it’s filled with many errors, most of which betray a total lack of knowledge about rockets and space-flight. I’ve never seen a video about spacex from the debunk/outrage YouTube sphere that wasn’t full of errors. Even thunder foot, the ring leader of YouTube outrage and “debunking” made super embarrassing mathematical errors in one of his videos about starlink. And it’s so interesting to see how criticizing Elon musk is basically a trend right now on YouTube. In this environment of dogma and hyperbole I would recommend using your own judgement rather than some youtuber who wants more Patreon money.
Vaporware? What are you talking about? Do you know know what that word means?
Common Sense Skeptic has found a niche exploiting the Elon Musk hate and is profiting from it. There are many people making incredible content on yt but he isn't one. Those that really know what they are doing and putting a lot more work into the accuracy of their videos have a very different opinion on SpaceX and Starship.
And I'm not sure what 'press releases' you are even talking about.
I seriously recommend not getting your information from known Musk haters who produce 'debunking' videos.
The existing GOES series of satellites produces amazing imagery. I'm not enough of a weather/climate nerd to appreciate all of it, but I am a bit of an imagery nerd and the geocolor images never stop being stunning.
I actually think Elon would agree in many ways that he would like to see a viable competitor. He has said as such many times, and his actions generally back that up.
BO is currently legally unable to compete in this contract.
GOES is a series of ~$½B weather satellites. For large, expensive sats like this, NASA has and established process of purchasing launch services, and to compete for them you have to prove and certify the safety of your rocket before you can apply. IIRC this launch requires LSP category 2 "medium risk" certification, which requires having successful past launches. Since BO has never launched anything to orbit, they cannot compete.
The entity likely to contest this award is ULA, because they are the one other American company who would have been capable of launching this payload. Note that doing so would not be in any way notable -- high-value government contracts are almost contested by default, just because why wouldn't you when it costs so little to do and there is $150M on the line.
They voluntarily withdrew their bid, because all 29 of the remaining Atlas 5 rockets (not built afaik, just planned and have engines ready in storage somewhere in Alabama) are already assigned to customers.
That hasn't stopped them complaining about spaceX before.
They tried to block SpaceX access to the 39A launch pad in Florida (Blue Origin claimed they would have a HUMAN rated orbital class vehicle shortly ready to go).
That gave rise to the first long callout I think from Elon -
"(Blue Origin) has not yet succeeded in creating a reliable suborbital spacecraft, despite spending 10 years in development," Musk told Space News. "If they do somehow show up in the next five years with a vehicle qualified to NASA's human rating standards that can dock with the Space Station, which is what Pad 39A is meant to do, we will gladly accommodate their needs. Frankly, I think we are more likely to discover unicorns dancing in the flame duct." - Elon Musk - 2013
SpaceX won that fight.
SpaceX is offering starlink services to folks. Bezos/Amazon has been complaining nonstop about incomplete applications needing to be rejected - ironically despite not having even provided options for how they will be launching their sats.
Obviously on the HLS award, the BO landed payload was pathetic, the rocket totally unproven (and no where to be seen), and the price much higher. Reality is if you include ideas like re-using the (pressure tested) tanks of the starship after landing, SpaceX is landing a huge mass and volume.
And the list goes on.
I have no idea why Bezos and company don't just focus on doing their own thing and getting some success there. Do a small sat orbital launch vehicle maybe just to get something going?
Yes, this would probably have been an Atlas V or Vulcan Centaur launch. SpaceX seems finally be able to market the Falcon Heavy - after long no news about it.
