On: Tesla: Artificial Intelligence and Autopilot

[AlexandrB]

> If the people who've made the singular successful US automobile manufacturer

Tesla shipped 500,000 cars last year, Ford shipped 2 million[1]. I know Tesla's valuation is sky-high, but I think that is the bullshit OP is referring to. To call them the singular successful US automobile manufacturer is ridiculous.

[1] https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/files/doc_news/2021/1/06/For...

[s5300 → AlexandrB]

Sorry for the misunderstanding, I definitely didn't word my post very well.

I didn't mean they're the singular successful US auto manufacturer

I meant that they're the first (for production scale that is, sure there are a few here and there making models w/ <1000 to be ever made) created in quite some time that has been successful.

[iseanstevens → AlexandrB]

Wait, Tesla shipped 1/4 as many cars as Ford last year?

I had no idea they had grown so big compared to other car companies.

[ahahahahah → iseanstevens]

Bit less than 1/8 actually, the parent compared Tesla global sales against Ford U.S. sales. It's a surprising common mistake for some odd reason.

[ac29 → iseanstevens]

The above poster is comparing Tesla's worldwide sales to Ford's US sales.

[panick21 → AlexandrB]

There is a reason the evaluations are different:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9FARebWUAYd5NI?format=jpg&name=...

Many of the production facilities that Ford uses, and huge sunk cost in things like engine production, are not an asset, but a cost in the long term.

Ford will not be making its own batteries, meaning somebody else will make a large part of the profit from each car.

Ford will not make its own self driving tech, so some other company will make that profit.

Ford will not sell its own cars, meaning they will lose large part of the margin on dealers.

Ford is massively invested in things that will be negative assets and has very, very little investment in the things that will matter in the next 5-10 years.

[jcranmer → panick21]

The Ford F-150 is the best-selling car in the US, selling more units than all of Tesla's models combined. Ford has already announced an electric version of the truck, due to come out next year I believe.

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that, by the end of the decade, the Ford F-150 could become the best-selling electric vehicle. (Nor, for that matter, is that anywhere near certain. I withhold judgement on whether or not it is probable). If that were to be true, then Tesla's valuation really doesn't make any sense.

[lumost → jcranmer]

In this world, Ford may

- Buy batteries from Tesla

- Buy FSD automation from Tesla

- License Electric drivetrain technology from Tesla

- Ford cars will charge at Tesla SuperChargers

Particularly with licensing it's possible that Tesla would make more profit on an electric F-150 than Ford!

[panick21 → jcranmer]

I'm not sure how that disproves anything I said.

Just announcing a electric version and producing a million of them are quite different.

Even if the F-150 electric becomes the best selling electric vehicle, that doesn't change my point either.

[AlexandrB → panick21]

There's "differences in valuation" and then there's Tesla's >300 PE ratio.

[Seanambers → AlexandrB]

There's also significant difference in debt levels across the auto industry which also influences valuation. https://mobile.twitter.com/jpr007/status/1405525073218314248...

With 50% CAGR the PE ratio does not seem so crazy, if growth were to stop, then yes it is crazy.

[panick21 → AlexandrB]

Like a year ago people were 'omg Tesla PE ratio is 1000'. Its actually 174.87 now.

PE is literally the worst way to evaluate a company that is growing.

But seriously, that is one of the single worst ways to evaluate a company and instantly discredits anybody that uses it as their primary argument.

[Animats → panick21]

Ford had been buying batteries, but is now building its own battery plant in Romulus, MI.

[borkyborkbork → AlexandrB]

I googled this for you: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=how+muc...