As a Russian citizen, EU and US need to get stop just "being concerned" and do more real stuff like this to put pressure on these dictatorships. We desperately need to get these bastards out of office and into the prison, and we need your help.
I'm an American born in Crimea. The only reason my family was able to finally leave Ukraine when the Soviet Union fell apart is because of the self imposed cultural and economic blockade by the Soviets for 50 years. A whole generation of people lived and died in that time thinking of western music, jeans, movies, and tech as luxuries. My grandpa who lives in the USA now still talks about the Panasonic color tv he managed to get in 1989. Back then a completely black market luxury.
Today a Russian actually has way more freedom than they did in those days. Free travel and the internet have completely changed everything. It will be painful for the Russian people but the best thing western economies can do to hit Russia where it hurts is deny travel entry and conduct a total economic and telecommunication blockade. No credit cards, no internet, no travel, no student visas. Nothing.
The oligarchs know they can just live a western life style in Russia and still have a house in every tax Haven in the world. They send their kids to top universities in Europe and the United States while piliging the Russian people.
If you leave Moscow Russian roads are garbage, schools are falling apart, and vodka freezes when you put it in the freezer.
Russia is so vast that every Russian could be living in a Midwestern style mcmansion and yet everyone lives in gray falling apart квартири.
What would this accomplish? Create a new Soviet Union? Why punish common Russians for the actions of the Russian "elites"? Put Putin, his oligarchs and maybe their direct relatives and other criminals on a no travel and asset freeze list and that's it. Well off Russians travel abroad to Turkey, Egypt and Cyprus anyway. I really doubt Egypt or Turkey would play by the US playbook. Why bar these innocent people from travelling, since they're just minding their own business? Being Russian doesn't make one a Putin cheerleader. Of course, a few "tourists" like the ones who poisoned Serghei Skripal and his daughter will slip through, just put them on the naughty list and carry on.
Turkey, Egypt, and Cyprus is just a vacation spot. They don't send their kids there for any education. Unfortunately Russia harbors criminals regularly and considers any hacker proceeds as just a source of money. Nothing will change if the west keeps leaving a door open. An oligarch will just have fake documents made.
I think this is bad for Lukashenko. The more the EU sanctions Belarus, the more Belarus has to rely on Russia. But the more Belarus has to rely on Russia, the greater Russia's power over Belarus, and the greater the likelihood that Belarus turns into a Russian puppet state in which all the real power and real decisions are being made in Moscow. That outcome threatens to deprive Lukashenko of real power and turn him into a mere figurehead.
He already relies on Russian roubles to keep his repression apparatus running. Fortunately Kremlin's money only cover their paychecks for a few months. When they stop flowing, the Belarussian nomenclature will try to find other means of financing thieir lifestyles. The possible outcomes are either are the Crimean or the Ukraine scenario.
It would definitely be annoying for EU airlines, but the EU market is a lot more important for Russian airlines than Russia is for the EU airlines.
For the EU airlines, losing overflight rights would make flights to China, Korea, and Japan about ~20% longer, but it would also mean that they wouldn't have to pay Russian overflight fees, which are about $400 million a year. Not paying these fees offsets some of the additional costs of going around, and Russia loses the overflight fees.
Long haul flights are still subdued due to COVID which means we can play these games at modest cost. However longer term, I think things will normalize wrt airspace including in Belarus.
That Russia can make 400 m in fees means the fuel cost and cost of longer flights going around Russia is worth more.
Yes but perhaps it doesn't matter as much as you'd think to the European airlines. Presumably Russia is charging what the market will bear in overflight fees. If flying over Russia is an option, airlines that choose to go around pay fuel/operational costs for the extra two hours of flying time, but they also must charge less for tickets, because their competitors that overfly Russia get there two hours sooner.
If EU airlines categorically can't overfly Russia, their only economic loss is the extra flying time, not the reduced ticket prices from taking longer, since their competitors are on the same playing field.
The winners in this would presumably be Turkish and the Gulf airlines.
This already happened a couple of days ago. Russia did not approve flight plans for 2 French passenger planes, Germany did the same to two cargo planes, and the matter was resolved by the next day. This also precipitated the need to an EU-wide response on Belarus hijacking a passenger plane.
Probably not. But some declare themselves to be the moral leaders and having values and bringing light and whats not. Hence the "welcome" (probably, I am not really sure what the parent poster actually meant).
They want Belarus isolated. It's ideal (for Putin's Russia) that the EU and US crack down harshly on Belarus, isolate them, and drive them into Russia's arms out of desperation. Lukashenko has been resisting a union with Russia for some time and using the West as a hedge, a way to create at least the illusion of an alternative to Russia's arms. With that gone, his options dwindle significantly, which is what Russia wants to see happen. There is nowhere else to turn, and few allies, other than Russia.
If you're Putin, what you want in this context, is for the economy of Belarus to get smashed to pieces, and Belarus to get entirely isolated politically in regards to the West.
Putin has been pulling his dick out, slapping it on the table and leering at what he wants for *everyone to see* before making his move to take what he wants.
There’s nothing secret about his plans. You’re just thick.
Given that governments have helped overturn regimes before, why isn't this being done now? Clearly it would benefit the Belarussian people (friends I have there are struggling a lot) as well as EU. Or are we just afraid of Russia too much still?
Has it ever worked out, if we want to take it as far as believing any of such things have ever been done in good faith? I can't recall any occurrences where an overthrown regime did not snowball into an irrepairable shift of power with the result of countless civilian deaths from the struggling parties involved. Especially so considering the proximity of Russia, I imagine it'd be opportunity to cause extreme ostracization. This is one of the courses of action I think EU is staying away the most from and for good reason.
They will turn off the flow of gas to Germany which made a strategic blunder by moving too quickly to abandon nuclear power. Russia has northern europe by the balls every time winter rolls around.
Considering how a few of those countries ended up after forced/aided regime change, like Iraq, Lybia, Syria, why would anyone still think it's a good idea to be taken lightly?
The only overturning would be Russia either installing a puppet or annexing Belarus altogether.
If EU intervenes, Russia will too. And there's much more popular support for Russia than for EU. Belarus people know their economy is a museum of Soviet era remains bankrolled by Russia. Heading West would mean total economic collapse to rebuild the system. They're little North Korea in many more ways than mass media talks about.
