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You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now. You heard it here... well, probably not first, but you heard it here.

In meatspace conversation I had Eliezer make the prediction concrete in scope and give it a number.

From one year after the date of the parent comment Eliezer expects that Google+ will not appear on Hacker News (except as a mistake, an obituary, an "It failed, I told you so!", etc). The probability Eliezer assigned to his prediction being correct: 55%.

I asked for the number with the intent of betting against him. At that figure I am not quite comfortable staking money. That is, I am not sufficiently confident that google+ has a significantly more than 45% chance of taking off. (Because I think that 45% chance of still being significant in a year is a good place to be, given the potential payoffs!)

That seems like an unwarranted level of confidence. Could you explain your reasoning?

He's using Reference Class Forecasting[1]. Without digging deep into Google+'s unique features, he's betting that it will do roughly what other web services in the class "Facebook competitor" and "Google-owned foray into social networking" have done in the past.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


What probability would you put on this?

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