Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

OP is likely talking about: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/288?ijkey=01...

Which was originally reported in the popular press as "herd immunity doesn't real". The methodology seems weak to me, both in terms of sampling and how poorly some of the adjustments in the attack rate/seropositivity estimates were justified.

This paper, Buss et al 2021, was cited wrt 67% attack rate and 75%+ seroprevalence in Faria et al 2021: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.12.435194v2

This in turn was cited in eg Dejnirattisai et al 2021, as if it were the original source of the seroprevalence claims/data: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.12.435194v2 Note the lack of a citation for Buss et al 2021.

The error bars in Buss et al 2021 are awfully narrow given how uncertain many of the assumptions made were in correcting the seroprevalence estimates. Further, the idea that P1 seems to "totally avoid natural immunity" (in comparison to vaccine immunity) is not borne out by the experimental data (eg Dejnirattisai et al 2021, linked above, or Tarke et al 2021: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.27.433180v1). Both convalescent and vaccine sera showed reduced neutralization rates for P1; you see similar behavior in other potent VOCs like B1.1.7 (Dejnirattisai et al 2021 bis: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00222-1) and B1.351 (Zhou et al 2021: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349058926_Reduced_N...). And given the lack of transparency in any of these papers regarding how the antibodies sourced from convalescent sera were chosen for use, it's hard to say for certain that there isn't yet another selection issue here.

> There's multiple studies and multiple sets of data from Manaus.

If you are aware of another data set from Manaus from the period prior to P1 emergence which used a different methodology to claim 75%+ seroprevalence, I'd love to take a look at it. Otherwise, it seems like all the claims are ultimately sourced from the estimates of Buss et al 2021.

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact