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> Failure on spinning disk HDDs is comparatively random.

comparatively, yes, but when averaged out over a large number of hard drives it definitely tends to follow a typical bathtub curve failure model seen in any mechanical product with moving parts.

https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section1/gifs/b...

early failures will be HDDs that die within a few months of being put into service

in the middle of the curve, there will be a constant steady rate of random failures

towards the end of the lifespan of the hard drives, as they've been spinning and seeking for many years, failures will increase.




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