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Central Spain records temperatures of -25°C after snowstorm (bbc.co.uk)
182 points by zeristor 4 days ago | hide | past | favorite | 132 comments





For those accustomed to US/Imperial units, -25×9÷5+32=-13°F. Temperatures in Madrid dropped to -16°C (3°F).

As others here have mentioned, these temperatures are unusually low for January in this region of Spain. They are the kinds of temperatures one would have seen in January during the "Little Ice Age" between the 15th and 19th centuries.[a][b][c]

Let's hope this unusual drop in temperature is just a "one-off" rare climate event, and not a portend of things to come.

--

[a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

[b] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/01/how-the-little...

[c] http://www.iberianature.com/material/iceage.html


It absolutely is an example of things to come - scenarios like this are caused by the weakened polar vortex that generally separates European weather from Arctic weather; the polar vortex has become weaker over the last years because of recent climate change / regional warming, and it is strongly expected to become even weaker in the coming decade(s), making weather like this more frequent.

It looks unusual, and I agree with you that it might be an example of the things to come. But I'd love to see an analysis of snowstorms in central Spain using extreme value theory. It might not be that infrequent. In EVT terms, the return level might not be more than a few decades.

Central Spain is quite cold. For example, when the International Brigades came to fight in the Civil War they were expecting a mild Winter, but they were shocked by pretty extreme temperatures. Luckily, everyone got prepared as next few years were even worse. In 1937, Teruel Battle was consistently fought below -20 C.

Aside from 1937, 1956 and 1971 saw pretty intense snowstorms. The 1971 one was much worse than the current storm according to the data I've seen.


Is this related to the polar vortex collapse discussed just the other day, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25713704

This isn't related to the polar vortex splitting, this is the polar vortex that has split. This is a part of the cold air mass that normally sits on the North Pole, but on top of Spain. Normally the cold arctic air spins around the north pole stably because it is cold and low pressure in the northern hemisphere winter. Warm air intruded into it, destabilized it, and it spun out into lower latitudes with corresponding intrusions of equally hot temperatures elsewhere (Tibetan plateau https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1348693028022738951/...)

I believe that this is due to the recent collapse of this year's polar vortex. The same thing happened last year and pushed large amounts of cold polar air into Europe. We are expecting a few more waves of this over the next few weeks.

In principle snow is good. It is better than rain as it will not flow quickly away. Melting snow lets more water to sink into ground and build up water table.

As someone who lives in Canada: you don't have to shovel rain.

as a former citizen of Huntington Beach CA during the 1997 El Nino storms, i'd take the snow.

I have the newspaper clipping of my grandmother being rescued from her home via dinghy by city rescue workers. Everyone I knew had their house ruined in hours after weeks of shoveling sandbags fruitlessly in front of the neighborhoods and homes.

And that was just the flood damage and personal effect , itself.

Untold amounts of environmental and biological damage occurred when sea-levels were temporarily higher than any of the sanitation and oil-recollection facilities that were in town.

That said , snow sucks, but i'd rather sweep it off my roof and winterize my plumbing than attempting to figure out the physics behind flood-proofing acres of land (almost always fruitlessly) and having to surf in sewage for years past the event.


Oh you sweet summer child... (take the summer part literally)

> i'd rather sweep it off my roof

Any significant amount of snow in LA would crush every single one of those beautiful flat modernist roofs. Snow load is no joke.


That's both very correct and very unfair, at the same time. Bravo!

/Spent an hour shoveling snow today


Snow is awesome!

Except when it all melts in spring all at once and the river(s) flood their surroundings. The ones that stupid (or corrupt or both) city planners and developers have been building on for years now. Flood plains? What's that? Oh you mean all that nice river front property that would sell for really great prices?

The bridge I used to take to work (before covid) is also affected by this. Both in the sense that the only other bridge to take from here was getting closed due to the rivers water level, meaning traffic doubled overnight and in the sense that we were mere inches away from that bridge also having to close.


Yep. One spring in Colorado the high water in a creek normally about ankle-deep took out a couple of bridges in our suburban neighborhood. They were never rebuilt--a long story.

That is one of the curious things about Colorado--creeks that are about shin deep 11 months of the year, bank full for a few days, and then subside back to shin deep.

But guess what? It isn't just in snow country that people love to build in flood plains. Have a look at Houston.


Oh, in Canada we have snow and flooding:

* https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/opg-flood-review-1.537...

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_River_of_the_North#Floods

The Maritimes especially gets all sort of weather.


There is a funny joke about a Bosnian in Canada, you may appreciate it. https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/3dcn76/the_diary_of_...

They have plenty of snow in Bosnia last I checked


You must be fun at parties.

It is a funny joke, I'm just saying it works better with another nationality

Wasn’t this kinda expected? It’s an El Niño year I believe? Australian summer is also colder than usual I think.

EDIT: Seems like it’s a “La niña” Winter...


According to Wikipedia [0] that should not affect Europe.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#/media/File:La_Ni...


The average minimum in Madrid in January is +3°C, and -3°C in Molina de Aragón, so no.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid

https://www.weather-atlas.com/en/spain/molina-de-aragon-clim...


41 degrees in Perth the other day, it seems pretty on par on this side of the island

Wouldn't a little ice age be great right about now? Then we can burn all the oil we want and be helping stay within our temperature bounds, not blowing through them.

Not an expert by any means, but...

The issue is that this is caused by the collapse of standard weather systems.

This isn't a sign of an ice age, it's the sign of instability.


A few days ago, someone posted a blog post here on HN [1] explaining the phenomenon which causes this: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-co...

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25713704


We are also entering a solar minimum, the last one was linked to a “little ice age” in Europe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

I don’t know how climate change will affect this. But we might be in for an interesting few years.


No we just left a minimum, there’s been sunspots of opposite polarity appearing since early 2019 if memory serves - round about that timeframe anyway but the end of the minimum wasn’t confirmed until earlier in 2020.

It wasn’t a Maunder Minimum.

For the next 4 years or so we’ll proceed to maximum then back down to the next minimum thereafter.


> The Maunder Minimum occurred with a much longer period of lower-than-average European temperatures which is likely to have been primarily caused by volcanic activity.[citation needed]

There are literally two citations immediately following that sentence in the Wikipedia article.

As I recall, many comments there were very dismissive. I wonder if that senrinent will change.

I don't think the two are related. At least, I haven't heard anyone mention it as the cause.

Madrid continues to be in utter disarray after this weekend's snowstorm, with most streets still covered in ice, many hardly penetrable even by foot. Supplies in some downtown supermarkets are low, with fresh produce completely out-of-stock.

The fact that snowplows are nowhere to be seen and streets continue to be in such a poor state suggests to me that not only we are completely ill-equipped for this situation (which is normal), but that the situation is overwhelming and the few resources we do have are spread thinly across the country.


This is completely abnormal weather for Madrid. It would be objectively stupid for them to have prepared well for arctic weather, given the average temperature in January is not even below 0 C and they get on average almost no snowfall in an average year.

That’s what I meant when I said it’s normal that we are ill-prepared for this situation.

Just for the sake of comparison, Detroit gets ~33 inches of snow a year (~84 cm) and takes a number of days to clear out after much of a blizzard. It's not real worth it to have an excess of equipment that really only sees a few days of use a year (or decade!).

> It's not real worth it to have an excess of equipment that really only sees a few days of use a year (or decade!)

That’s just silly. Almost every garbage truck in Chicago has the equipment to allow a plow to be attached to it. They can nearly double their fleet of plows for big storms, which are pretty rare.

There was a unexpected blizzard in 1979 right before the mayoral election and the mayor lost because the city didn’t plow the streets fast enough. Ever since then, Chicago has always had more snow plows than needed. Even political cronies go out and shovel sidewalks because they are so afraid of losing due to snow.


In the mountains, at about 3k feet or 1k meters elevation. Yes, the headline is quite misleading. I expect more from the BBC.

From the article:

> The temperature plunged to -25C (-13F) in Molina de Aragón and Teruel, in mountains east of Madrid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molina_de_Arag%C3%B3n

> Elevation 1,065 m (3,494 ft)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teruel

> Elevation 915 m (3,002 ft)


The headline doesn’t come across as misleading to me. I interpreted it as the temperature having been recorded somewhere in central Spain which appears to be accurate (granted my Spanish geography isn’t great). The tone also appears to be consistent with what else is being reported - that this is unusual or possibly even extreme weather.

I’m assuming your expectation was different. If so I’d be be curious as to how you did interpret it?


Knowing the topography of Spain helps.

My interpretation is that the very, very woke BBC staff picked what seems like extreme temps from a mountain region and then technically correctly wrote that "Central Spain" "records temperatures of -25C". That is all.

Do note: I'm not a climate change denier. I just hate crap like this, with a passion. I don't think we should have to abandon facts in this particular fight.

It seems like a bunch of people here think we should. That's very scary and destructive, IMO.


It’s the first time in 20 years those elevated areas have reached these temps.

The average low is around -3.5c for January.

You might be giving the BBC an overly hard time here. This does appear to be a significant (1 in 20 year) deviation.


This takes seems really off to me somehow.

They reported a min temperature of -25C, noted it is in an area known as "spanish siberia" (e.g. somewhere that expects cold weather) then note that it was unusually cold even for there, the coldest in 'at least 20 years'.

They also reported -16C in Madrid itself, and the struggles that hospitals were having with a combination of COVID impact and a large number of additional fracture cases from falling on ice.

None of this seem particularly sensationalized, misleading (intentionally or otherwise), or whatever you mean by "woke".


Well, it's the headline we're talking about. As I wrote, "Yes, the headline is quite misleading."

Without that headline, this post wouldn't have been made it here.


So you're objecting to the general nature of headlines for the last 50+ years at least? I don't see what you thought was worth calling out, really.

That’s really interesting - thank you for replying.

Hey, I now see that my reply was kinda "bossy". Sorry; I was just a bit upset.

No offence taken. I happen to disagree with you about the headline interpretation and the BBC wokeness bit but that’s what a good debating environment is for. (Without arguing the merits either way on the wider issue, I think this isn’t a good article to demonstrate over-wokeness at the BBC for example).

All that said though, it’s interesting to hear others’ points of view and the thanks for replying was genuinely meant.


> technically correctly wrote that "Central Spain" "records temperatures of -25C". That is all.

They are technically correct, which is the best kind of correct. You're mad that their reporting is factually correct?


You should go to reddit or something.

Even in Madrid it got down to -16C (average low for January is 2.7C).

Central Spain contains a large plateau at an elevation of ~500-1000m above sea level.

Checking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meseta_Central , I was almost correct. With an area of 200000 km^2 (from german Wikipedia) it is even larger than I expected.


That doesn't seem very misleading. The estimated temperature difference for every 1000 meters in additional elevation is only 5-6C.

The Wikipedia page for Molina de Aragón, which you linked to, says that the average low in January for that locality is -3.5C, and that the record low is -28C, which happens to also be the record low ever recorded in the whole of Spain (still according to the Wikipedia page).

-25C is thus certainly newsworthy and, well, that's in central Spain, which is elevated, but "central Spain" does not imply that it isn't and Spanish geography is what it is. This is not misleading.


Mentioning elevation without any context or reference to historical temperatures is not very helpful. Consider updating your comment.

Yeah, how its written is like it's -25 at massive population centers. Intentional vague.

The elevation of Madrid is 667 meters according to Wikipedia. So we are not talking about the temperature of an isolated mountain top, even if they report the most extreme temperature.

THIS.

Plus, it is not that unusual. It happened 18 years ago already.


To put this in context as well, most places (at the least in the southern parts of Spain) don't have central heating systems or proper insulation. A fireplace or reversible A/C if you're lucky.

In the central parts of Spain they do have heating systems and proper insulation. Winters are cold there, just not as cold as this year.

I wouldn't extrapolate.

Most places in Spain have and need heating, apart from a few coastal enclaves in the south. Spain is the 5th largest user of energy for residential heating in the EU, behind Germany, France, Italy, and Poland.


I agree this is rather limited to the south coast and the islands. But I would argue that high energy consumption could, in this case, very well be the sign of poor insulation and inefficient heating installations (A/C).

On what grounds would you base that on beyond your prejudices?

I'm sorry if it came out as prejudicial. It was not intended in this way. It was more of an observation after having lived there for some years and witnessed it first hand.

I did a quick search for more objective observations and what I found was:

Homes labelled A, B and C account for less than 10% of the housing stock. […] Most of households in the sample (52%) are E rated. F and G rated residences account for almost 25% of the sample. [1][2]

In Spain, buildings are currently responsible for 31% of energy consumption. […] the classification A - the highest - involves spending up to 10 times less than the G - the lowest -. Currently, in Spain most buildings have an E, F or G rating.[3]

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151... (4. Results and discussion)

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_energy_label

[3] https://www.interregeurope.eu/enerselves/news/news-article/2...


Cold-blooded Canadian here, so forgive me for asking - is this highly unusual?

I am from Madrid, and I can tell this is in fact highly unusual. From time to time it might snow in Madrid a couple of days, but nothing like this. In the mountains of course it happen almost every year, but not in the plains...

All the cities in central Spain are collapsed by the ice and snow (including the capital), there are no public transportation, emergencies services can barely make it into affected zones, a lot of people don't have water supply because of frozen pipes (including myself), trucks with food and supplies are still stuck and cannot enter in the city...

This chaos is of course because we are not prepared for this extreme cold weather, and we are not prepared because this is VERY unusual.

Let's say this is the same unusual as in the covid-19 pandemic,nobody would have imagined it a year ago.


Ah. Well, that makes sense. When it gets down to -25 here (thankfully not all that often in Southern Alberta) I just don't spend much time outside... although -25C still isn't cold enough to necessitate plugging in the truck. It gets truly, bitterly cold in places like Saskatoon, Edmonton or Winnipeg... -40 is not altogether uncommon.

My house of made of Insulated Concrete Forms and has an amazing r value. A hot fire in the wood stove can quickly heat the whole place up to 22C, even when it's -20 outside.

It can snow 50cm over a 12hr period, though, and that's always fun to deal with. I've gotten badly stuck in my own driveway twice this year (it's 40 feet long & annoying to clear), and both times the snowblower conked out and I had to take the thing apart and fix it before I was able to go into town to get groceries. Clearing the driveway with a shovel is simply not possible unless you plan to spend an entire day doing it.

Anyhoo, all this to say is - dealing with that kind of weather requires some preparation, and I can see how it would cause mayhem in a place where that's unusual. Hopefully when air travel becomes abundant again I can travel to Spain to enjoy its warmth :-P


In Madrid city it may snow one or two times a year, but not all years, also most of the time the snow goes away the same day it falls. A few years the snow remains in the city for a couple of days, but is not that common and is usually seen as a joyful event.

But this time, the whole city was completely covered in snow, all of it. Cars abandoned in the middle of the street, people skying in the main avenues, it was crazy, no one I know has ever seen this here so if it has ever happened, it must been at least 80 years ago.


The Spanish people definitely dont have Canada quality heating or insulation.

Compared to most of the world Canada is pretty much like living in the arctic. :) Even Americans dont want to live in the top half of the USA any more.


Lot's of Canada doesn't have "Canada quality" insulation, including my apartment but also a variety of houses I have lived in.

I grew up in the Okanagan, where temps range from -20°C to 40°C. Many houses there couldn't deal with either extreme well.

Even in Vancouver, -16 would freeze some pipes and kill some people. Not as bad as Madrid, but we are more accustomed to it here.


I don’t think heating quality or insulation is a problem for most people in central Spain.

Why do you think that? It's a pretty big problem in old buildings in the Paris city center, I'd be surprised if Madrid fared much better given its usually hotter climate.

Spain is kinda prelude to Africa, at least climate-wise. It gets cold and snowy in the mountains during winter, but something like that is highly unusual in Madrid.

Seems pretty unusual. Compared to the UK [1] which is much further North.

[1] https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/10/16/top-ten-coldest-rec...


Interestingly, even the UK doesn't get a lot of snow. That's because the gulf stream keeps it relatively warm for it's latitude.

One of the major concerns of climate change is that may disrupt the gulf stream which would be disastrous for the UK. Their ecosystem depends heavily on the fact that water from the gulf of mexico keeps them unusually warm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream


Not only the UK, but the whole of Northern and Western Europe are kind of screwed without the Gulf Stream.

I remember back in 1984 or so, we once had snow in Madrid in May. Younger people laugh at me as if I'm just making that up, but what has just happened is way more unusual.

I remember that snowstorm, although very distantly! It must have been '84 or '85 ...

From the article:

> Spain's coldest night for at least 20 years


... and we wonder why so many Canadians move down south to California or Florida. Even cold-blooded reptiles like basking in the sun once in a while.

Yeah I am one of those cold blooded Canadians. Weird thing is if you look at what's going in Canadian real estate, the shitty weather is not reflected in price at all.

Weather and the high cost of living in all the major Canadian cities (compared to the average tech income) were the two main reasons wife and I decided to move down South. Don't regret it for a moment.


Isn't Canadian real estate mostly a parking spot for foreign capital these days, and has nothing to do with the actual demand of people living there?

> Weird thing is if you look at what's going in Canadian real estate, the shitty weather is not reflected in price at all.

Some Chinese investor needing a safe heaven for their assets (and/or, in case some purge happens like with Jack Ma, for their family) that can't be seized at random by the CCP does not care at all about the weather, only about the country showing a spine to China. That is why the real estate market of Canada is so thoroughly messed up - a third of Vancouver's market, for example, was Chinese (https://www.fortunebuilders.com/one-third-of-vancouvers-real...).


Also, in terms of weather, it's all relative.

Canada can get quite cold, but Vancouver is actually relatively moderate and is borderline Mediterranean due to its west coast location. Beijing gets both much colder and much hotter on a regular basis.

Also, air quality in Vancouver is significantly better than in Beijing, which would have more impact on living conditions than just climate by itself.


It's no colder in most of Canada (the most populated parts) than most of the midwest or the northeast. Average temperatures in the winter in Toronto are only slightly colder than NYC.

Yes, where I'm originally from in central Alberta, it gets cold as hell. But most of the population of Ontario (the most populous province) lives significantly south of the 49th parallel, on the same latitude as much of Oregon. Further south than Vermont, Maine, or New Hampshire, and due to weather patterns this side of the lake is actually a tad warmer on average than the south side in central NY.

TDLR: Most of Canada isn't as cold as the stereotypes. Lots of Americans live in colder areas.


Madrid is generally considered one of the hottest places of Europe.

Spain almost never sees degrees below 0°C [1].

[1] https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/spain


In the north it’s completely normal to have sub zero temperatures in the winter. My hometown doesn’t have a particularly high altitude (650m, i.e. not in the mountains) and the average low for January is below zero.

Spain has very different climates. I live only 30 kms away from the cost in the North of Spain and temperatures of -4 or -5 C are quite common in the winter. Some times we even have -10 C. So temperetures bellow zero are definitely common here.

Not true. In the north range mountains there are below zero temperatures every winter.

>This woman in Madrid was doing her best to deal with the icy conditions on Monday

No... not hot water to melt the ice and then have it freeze again.


It was comical, but also sad, seeing people doing that in middle Georgia (US state, not country) a few years back when we had an unusual (for the area) cold spell with a lot of ice. Very few had scrapers and brushes for their cars to clear them so I was cleaning a lot of neighbors' cars while my own car was warming up.

Isn't pouring boiling hot water on car glass a pretty certain way to shatter them by thermal stress?!

It could, though I've never seen it happen when people tried it. It usually just refreezes and scraping (plus running the car heater) is the better option.

Yes, been there, done that.

Also, don't pour cold water on the windshield on a hot summer day, especially if the car is oven-hot and you don't want to be toasted alive inside, because... well...


Also last week "Spain records lowest temperature ever at -34C (-29F)" [1]. This is in the Pyrenees where is not unusual to reach low temperatures, but still freaking cold.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/spain-weather-snow/spain-rec...


Wow that's really strange because here in Greece we have probably the hottest January of the last years with temperatures around 20c!

It’s not that surprising. While climate change is often discussed in terms of increasing average temperature, the change will come with much larger variations than we are currently experiencing. A lot of these extremes will ‚average out‘ but that won’t make hot summers or cold winters less unpleasant (or deadly).

In Bulgaria too.

But this weekend temperatures are going to drop to -10 to -15.


For those interested in events like this. There's a guy[1] that collects reports on cold weather records and maintains a mailing list.

He's a wonky guy and kinda bent on the solar minimum but if you can see past that, his list does a good job of reporting on cold extremes across the world.

[1] electroverse.net


Well he’s saying Site is being demonetized. It’s posting this interesting comment in the articles(that seems to contradict some of the posts on this thread):

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.


Snow in Madrid is definitely unusual but Spain gets snow every year.

"You can go to Puerto de Navacerrada for a few hours of skiing then return to Madrid to continue visiting the many attractions in Europe’s fourth-largest city."

https://www.justapack.com/best-ski-resorts-in-spain-ski-reso...


It used to be more frequent. When I was in school, there was at least a day per winter when snow would not melt and you woke up to whit(ish) streets in Madrid (city). Nothing that jammed traffic or made us skip school by far, but you got some snow to throw around. Currently that does not happen; and when it happens it seems heavier. Last traffic-disrupting snowfall was 2009 in Madrid.

In Madrid (region), at less than an hour driving, we have a Sierra where we used to have 3 skiing stations. Now we only have 2 (Navacerrada and Valdesquí) because Cotos had to close. And snow melts more quickly. My father always boasts that he once skied in the Madrid Sierra on May 15th, and with current climate that's difficult to believe. But I've seen how the skiing season gets shorter year after year. 15 years ago everybody made plans for going skiing to the Pyrenees on the Inmaculada holiday (early November), and currently all bets are off even for the Constitution holiday (early December).


But that's over a kilometer higher.

It's worth reiterating that the problem is climate change, not just global warming. There's more energy in the atmosphere, and that can lead to warmer weather (on average this is the case) but it also means there's more energy to whip up storms or move regions of hot or cold air much further, to places that are not used to them. So unusually cold weather can in fact be a result of climate change.

Sorry, this is too cheap. Basically all you are saying is that climate may change (which it always has) and whenever there is an unusaual weather event, you can blame it on man made climate change. I am not buying this.

If you were right, we should see at least "some" sort of trend, but at least in this official graphics, I just do not see it:

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...


I think the parent merely wanted to point out that accelerated climate change (which is primarily driven by humans) can cause both record high and record low temperatures.

I did work at -20C some years ago in Lithuania in one of my construction gigs. It's bloody cold, yet we kind of are( or used to be) used to cold winters and people usually are well prepared: clothes, tyres, etc. At -25C it becomes difficult to breathe. Now it's all good and nice for northerners,but how the hell the Spaniards can survive it?!

I lived in Madrid over winter years ago, and it dropped to -6c for a few nights. I'm from the UK so I'm somewhat used to colder temperatures (it's 0c currently for example), but my god, that is the coldest I've ever felt in my life. I went to bed dressed in 3 layers of clothes and I was still freezing.

That's brutal. What kind of heating do these people have? Central heating, or electric registers in some rooms?

I can't speak for Madrid but here in Lisbon at roughly the same latitude we have no central heating and we usually go by with a single small ~900W space heater. According to wikipedia the all time record for low temperatures was -1°C, so it's usually fine.

If the temperature was to drop to below -10°C I'm not sure what I would do. I'd try to buy a better heater, but so would half the city so that might be a problem.

Madrid tends to have more extreme weather than here though, I suspect because the ocean offers us a certain thermal inertia.


These same areas have also seen increasingly warmer summers in recent times, right?

While it may be hard to speculate short and long term regional changes, does anyone have a recommendations for interactive tools to explore, say, monthly temperatures for a given area for the past however many years?


It's predicted that Europe will get colder due to climate change. "Europe will get cold toes" - NASA [0]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DldSBIja2Kw&t=46s


Only Spain isn't Europe - meanwhile 12° further north, temperatures are normal (even a bit on the warmer side) for the season.

A single night of record breaking low temperatures doesn't mean much. 24 years ago today, it was -18°C in my little corner of the world, the next night it was more than 12°C warmer already.

Freak weather extremes will increase in both intensity and frequency, but doomsday predictions usually don't hold much water as we know too little about the system as a whole and the feedback mechanisms involved.


>Freak weather extremes will increase in both intensity and frequency,

Is there really data to back this up?



Well, only the west coast of Europe. And only if the Gulf Stream stops.

This is killing temperature even for the hardiest palm. So I'm wondering how much of their mature trees and landscaping will be destroyed

The city of Madrid, where I live, is currently full of fallen trees. I went for a walk a couple days ago and could count easily 10-20 just in the nearby streets.

It's been pretty chaotic, since we're not used to snow at all. After 4 days roads are still unusable, supermarkets can't restock shelves...The city's pretty much stopped.


-16C, as has been recorded in Madrid, is definitely lethal for olive trees.

I don't know about the temperatures in the all of Spain or where the main olive orchards are but that has the potential for being devastating for growers.


[flagged]


I know you're being snarky, but it actually IS likely a result of anthropogenic climate change! The north polar region is warming much faster than most places on the globe. Without its usual thick mass of ice, the region isn't cold enough to sustain the usual "polar vortex." Global models have been predicting for weeks that the vortex would split, and a lobe of very cold air would spin off over Europe, causing record cold temps.

The debates are over and we are already living with the consequences of burning up so much fossil fuel. But your snark is, uh, really funny! Ha ha!


You can't have gone the past couple decades without anyone pointing out there's a difference between weather and climate, so I'm assuming you understand the difference but choose to ignore it in hopes that there will be people ignorant enough to believe you.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was established in 1988, 32 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Cli...


*climate change ;)

So "Day after tomorrow" is the SF film that came true?

No. It sometimes gets very cold in the mountains.

Where's the global warming(lie)?

This is global warming. The globe as a whole gets warmer, and the weather gets more erratic.

See: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/clima...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/01/30/this...

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/12/if-global-warming...

or anything else you get when you search "global warming colder winters"


weather =/= climate

Climate is more or less the average weather over time. Think about it this way:

Let's pretend (and for the sake of simplifying the problem), we have a tiny planet with only two equally sized places, A and B. And here's the (year 1) seasonal temperatures for each: (winter/spring/summer/autumn)

A: 10, 20, 30, 20

B: 15, 25, 35, 25

The global average temperature (if you average all the numbers) is: 22.5

Now, let's say in year 2, the numbers change to this:

A: 8, 22, 30, 20

B: 12, 28, 35, 27

Now the global average temperature has increased by a 0.25 degree to 22.75. But all of these things are also true:

1. A didn't get any warmer during the summer in year 2 than it did in year 1.

2. Both places got colder during the winter.

3. B only got 2 degrees warmer than last year.

4. The largest temperature fluctuation is 60% more extreme in year 1 than in year 2.

Now, expand this example to the thousands of places that we measure weather on earth and you can see why the weather in one location would contribute statistically very little to the overall climate.


It's very simple. Weather will just get worse unless you do X.

X is just whatever I want.


It's been called (anthropogenic) climate change because of insipid replies like yours. It's like my daughter saying that's she having social interaction because she's looking at tiktok, "and it's called social media."

The name is based on an early paper from the 50s [0]. Global warming is an Algore rebranding that got lots of public awareness. Once the science took over it was back to climate change again. But yeah you are right. A lot of people just attack the used language and then shout "deception" when people are just talking colloquially because explaining everything from scratch gets very tiring eventually.

The problem with climate change deniers is that they refuse everything so you have to actually explain everything from scratch time and time again. That's part of the strategy. Look for tiny mistakes and then deny the whole thing.

Clarifying that one is talking about anthropogenic climate change instead of just "regular" climate change is a pretty good example. Ultimately the difference is meaningless because non anthropogenic climate change is insignificant on human time scales. Give me 500 years to prepare and I won't care. Give me 50 years and I will always fail.

The worst part is that I don't even see any long term benefits to denying climate change. Even if it was completely fictional I still don't see any reason to not adopt technologies that would ultimately reduce the impact of climate change. Coal is a dying industry because of the economics. Oil is too precious to burn in cars (planes and ships are good use cases though). There is a general lack of investments to put central bank money into.

Oh, did I just say "climate change denier"? I obviously mean "climate change skeptics". (I am awaiting a response that skeptic is also wrong)

[0] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490....


And anyway, I think the average temperature has risen again last year, and was on par with the record peak from 2016.

> The worst part is that I don't even see any long term benefits to denying climate change.

It's a sad state of affairs.




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