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I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes) and I couldn't put it down when I read it over the summer. Several people whom I deeply respect recommended this book, including the famous bond trader Jeffrey Gundlach.

After reading the book, it was really no surprise to me when the capital was overrun with rioters. The book convinced me, we could very well have a bloody revolution or war considering the unaddressed underlying conditions: extreme wealth inequality, pandemic, desperation, hunger and feeling like one has no personal stake. The rise of China and decline of the United States contributes to another dangerous possible outcome. The tech industry's most recent moves to purge conservatives/libertarians may make our social condition even worse, by isolating rather than including the most desperate people in our society.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rend...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theo...




> After reading the book, it was really no surprise to me when the capital was overrun with rioters.

May it be possible you formed a bias? Take extreme examples of preppers or religious nuts - if something happened tomorrow, they'd be the first to say "I've been telling you for years". Does that mean they were right all along or rather that given a long enough time frame anything can happen?

> unaddressed underlying conditions: extreme wealth inequality, pandemic, desperation, hunger and feeling like one has no personal stake.

on the flip side, no revolution since and including arab uprising was successful, and unlike us, they're actually prepared to sacrifice themselves for their ideals.


> we could very well have a bloody revolution or war considering the unaddressed underlying conditions

A revolution/civil war in the US is impossible. The US military is the best-equipped in the world (with tons of equipment no private individual can ever hope to acquire) and backed by the world's leading intelligence community. Regardless of how angry or desperate American citizens are, they don't have the capacity to wage anything resembling a war on the government. Violent protests (and continued domestic terrorism) are an entirely different matter, though.


If you would have asked me one year and one month ago if I thought San Francisco and New York would be ghost towns today, I would have said exactly the same thing.




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