They just had an oil spill from a refinery off the western coast in July and have done nothing to either prevent or fix it as far as I am aware (https://www.dw.com/es/alarma-por-derrame-petrolero-en-costas... in fact they had a second oil spill in the same location a couple of weeks later trying to get operations going again.
Heck, they had one last year that I believe is still ongoing on and off (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruW_lkWCums&t=244s) and this by no means an exhaustive link, just the ones I can remember off the top of my head while writing this note
By now may be thinking this case is surely different as it has international implications, but never mind, they've already done that before without major consequences (https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-petroleo-venezolano-origina...)
On top of this the dictatorship is actively blocking access to inspectors to review their claims that everything is under control (https://www.looptt.com/content/foreign-ministry-no-access-gr...) which is something they could do tomorrow if they so wished
As a Venezuelan I can assure you there's no need to invoke big business interests or sanctions; they simply don't care.
I'd say everyone should start preparing for the worst; will it be a disaster? Absolutely ... one more to add to the long list of disasters they are responsible for; the dictatorship (and us everyday folks in some measure as well) have grown numb to them by now
PS: My hat's off to this guy who literally risked his life in order to bring awareness to this
And yeah, that guy is really brave. Especially after that story of the Colombian captain being detained for months and then killed in a raid by national guards that wanted money. I guess now there are going to be patrolling it and Sebin is going to make sure no one gets close again.