>As recently as 2018, when the California-based company was having troubles with the serial production of its Model 3, Volkswagen considered becoming a strategic investor in Tesla to teach Musk how to do mass production. But reality has long since overtaken that idea: Tesla is now worth five times as much as Volkswagen on the stock exchange.
>And yet the VW ID.3 is set to overtake the Model 3 in models sold in Norway
You're linking to a graph that shows 2020 deliveries, not cumulative deliveries. Also, this is comparing a car that's been on the market for a year and a half and is delivered continuously, with a launch of a new model that mostly consists of pre-orders being delivered.
Can't really tell much from this graph, but it would be a nice surprise of the state of global EV development if Volkswagen managed to produce and sell the all the 300.000 ID.3s per year that they intend to by the end of 2021. That would put them on par with the current Model 3 production rate :-)
There is no planet where the valuation of Tesla makes any sense. The value would only be justified if Tesla is essentially expected to monopolice the global car market.
Tesla doesn't have any technological secret sauce. Their battery technology is all from Panasonic, and their self-driving technology is behind Waymo. Other car makers have access to most of the same technology and much more experience mass-producing vehicles. I'm sure Tesla is worth plenty of money, but not several times Ford.
"There is no planet where the valuation of Tesla makes any sense."
This is the typical mindset of investors who look backward--P/E ratio--while attempting to value a growth company.
Electric vehicle penetration will soar from 3% to 20% by 2025. Tesla volumes will soar alongside from 500K to 3.5M. That equates to 2025 EPS of $18 ~ $900 at 50x (2x P/E to growth ratio) and $600 present value.
"Their battery technology is all from Panasonic"
Panasonic manufactures 2170 and 18650 cells. Tesla provides the formula for the chemistry of those cells, and creates a proprietary pack from them. Tesla also has multiple breakthroughs with the introduction of its 4860 cell, now being produced at the Roadrunner facility on Kato Road.
"their self-driving technology is behind Waymo"
Waymo's release of "public-but you can't sign up" self-driving ride share service is a specialized solution restricted to a specific area. Deep NN require vast amounts of data that is well labeled, Tesla has an advantage here.
"Other car makers have access to most of the same technology and much more experience mass-producing vehicles."
OEMs will need to spend billions to retool their factories to produce EV. As EV penetration rises they are left with useless equipment, technology and engineers. Massive amounts of capital will be need to retool factories to produce EV specific platforms. Converting ICE platforms to EV has proved to produce inferior product. OEMs have little software expertise. OEMs may have had superior manufacturing skill, but with Tesla's cell-to-body, and metallurgy breakthroughs allowing giga-castings that replace hundreds of parts and processes this is no longer true.
The other OEMs will have to retool, yes. However, Tesla must construct brand new factories if they start shipping Ford-quantities of cars. Constructing brand new factories takes more capital than retooling, especially since EVs are a lot simpler than IC cars.
The established players have massively more capital and expertise making reliable cars.
In just this one vertical, TSLA is valued with relatively "low" risk as a car manufacturer, battery manufacturer, Lithium miner, all the gas stations, dealerships, maintenance shops, and even as an insurance company.
TSLA is also involved with other verticals, valued at "high" risk. i.e. B2C and B2B battery storage/generation systems for the house/grid, factory manufacturing consultant, and a ride-sharing / car rentals company.
I don't really have data, but would be willing to bet TSLA will likely start constructing houses / buildings in the next 10 years.
That said, its valuation is highly risky.
(disclaimer: I do not own any TSLA stock, but my parents do)
They're dipping their hands into many fields. What is the basis for thinking they will do better than the established players? Why should I buy a house from Tesla when there are many mature modular home manufacturers.
In the past, many of Tesla's side ventures have been abandoned or not come to fruition. Why should it be different in the future?
Yeah, that is a great question, and the only answer I have really is "faith". Specifically, "faith in Elon Musk". Which entirely depends on your risk profile and if your vision for the world aligns with Elon's and you (like him) are tolerant that your investment might hit $0. And frankly, for me personally, this wouldn't be enough for me to invest.
That said, given that TSLA's startegy is much like AAPL and AMZN, i.e. vertical integration, I don't feel they are "dipping their hands into many fields", but I do agree with the sentiment that they are "challenging an ever increasing number of incumbents" and its unlikely they can outperform all of them at the same time.
We will need to wait for TSLA's next 2 quarters to really know if they can sustain/grow their EPS. Which will be the only real test of "are they spreading themselves thin?" (compared with "spreading themselves thicc?").
And yet the VW ID.3 is set to overtake the Model 3 in models sold in Norway: https://twitter.com/TESLAcharts/status/1316044411055243264?s...