Generally speaking the area has been conflicted from all sides, e.g Israel-Palestine etc, and it feels like noone really wants to fix things up and let the area heal for generations to come? I mean come on people we are in 2020 and we act like we are 70 years ago... we should be thinking out of the box.
Although I am biased on this subject as I legally own land that I can't use or visit in Famagusta, I thought I'd share my opinion.
A friend of mine has told me that the only way he'll return to Turkey is to attend Erdoğan's funeral. I sympathize with him, he's as sad about the current situation as I am (though from the other side).
This sort of act is one where a couple western countries throw out some sanctions against some state-adjacent figures, but nothing too severe; then in a few years, those sanctions quietly go away during an effort to "normalize" relations.
The progressive West spent the next 70 years ensuring that identity never took hold.
Specifically on Turkey, the West more or less gave Erdogan the green light for expansion by 1) installing a neutered puppet government in Northern Iraq that is unable to control its borders and 2) supporting anti-Turkish militias against the Syrian government and as a direct consequence set the scene for Turkey to begin occupation. So it’s hardly surprising he begins to flirt a bit more with Cyprus as well.
Never the less, I visited a few years ago. Very strange to see in real life the "nature takes over the cities" so often imagined in films.
I see you even slept there! Did you have someone keeping watch? It must have been a once in a lifetime trip!
Do they really shoot on sight? I really doubt that. But I'm sure you'd have a really uncomfortable time at a Turkish police station when caught.
And then Erdogan wonders why, lol.
Fyi: I do some business with Turkish people. I just don't trust Erdogan.
Turkish industry heavily utilizes EU financial and consulting services.
Turkey also benefits from various infrastructural and knowledge-sharing schemes supplied by the EU.
So, quite a lot to lose.
Erdogan has to somehow keep his deeply indebted country rolling and his population of 82 million employed. It seems foolish to start picking fights with his biggest trading partner but, who knows, perhaps this is the sort of distraction that will keep his population focused on nationalism.
Turkey needs NATO more than the other way around
(b) the nukes (İncirlik)
As to who needs whom more, I have no opinion.
Pre-Covid, Turkey's tourist industry had been rapidly expanding. By 2019, Turkey was the world's sixth most popular destination, with over 51 million tourists. That's a lot of jobs, a lot of cash for a developing nation with low levels of education and skills.
The fact that their newly opened Istanbul Airport will, once completed, have an annual capacity of 200 million passengers indicates Turkey's ambition was to keep their tourist industry growing as fast as possible.
The national flag carrier, Turkish Airlines, with 315 scheduled destinations, was the largest mainline carrier in the world by number of passenger destinations. That's a lot of planes that are currently mostly grounded.
Now, just as the entire global tourist industry lies in tatters, the Turks are going to dredge up bad memories and alienate the valuable European market by moving aggressively against Cyprus, an EU member. Are German and Swedish tourists really going to ignore that and book their winter escapes in Turkey?
All that Turkey gains is a good but relatively small site for a tourist city, one that has to be demolished and built again from scratch. That massive investment, made in direct defiance of United Nations rules, could all be lost if they do end up having to hand that disputed territory back to the original occupants.
It is all so needlessly stupid, running directly counter to the long-term interests of Turkey as a whole. This is a good example of why "strong leaders" are not such a hot idea. The generals running Thailand, another country massively dependent upon tourism, are an example of the same thing. Even before Covid-19 came along, they were needlessly whipping up anti-Western sentiment, overcomplicating their visa rules, and pretending that tourism was no longer a significant part of "Thailand 4.0". Now that roughly a quarter of their economy has disappeared, they have to somehow do a 360 without admitting they made a mistake and losing face.
For your cheap package tourist, money and convenience matter even if ethics do not. The international embargo means no direct flights from anywhere other than Turkey, so, your package tourist would be looking at significant additional travel time and expense.
Then you have infrastructure. The south of the island received significant grants and subsidies from the EU, had plenty of foreign investment, a thriving tourist industry, and a tourist-oriented population that can mostly speak English. The north was isolated, unable to export, and almost entirely dependent on meagre support from Turkey, meaning that the north fell far behind.
So, your package tourist will have fewer comforts, fewer food choices, and would be served by inexperienced staff with little English. The TripAdvisor reviews will be painful.
For the next decade or so, the supply of tourist accommodation all over the world is going to wildly exceed demand. The established destinations, with experienced operators, established reputations, and direct flights are going to utterly dominate a cut-throat market. The main Turkish tourist industry will, of course, survive but this self-inflicted damage to its reputation will make it harder than it could have been.
Like how Israel became an international pariah for resettlements in the West Bank?
The world has far bigger issues to deal with and Erdogan know it. I don't expect to see any significant international pushback.
Something the cheap Turkish resort package tourist cares about when their luggage doesn't show up at IST.
Edit: Something worth noting, the Eastern side of Turkey within a few hundred kms of the Syrian border is already a no-go zone.
I happen to know an EU diplomat, who has (undiplomatically) shared that letting Cyprus into the EU without using this as a cudgel to sort out the issue is widely viewed as a huge mistake. They're heartily sick of the problem, so the likeliest outcome here is that the EU issues a communique expressing deep concern over Turkey's actions and reiterating its commitment to a peaceful solution, which will have the same effect as all its other communiques about the same issue over the years. (Which is to say, nil.)
It does not matter if some unnamed EU diplomat thinks that letting Cyprus into the EU was a mistake. They have been a full member for 16 years now. That diplomat works for them. They are a participant in the world's biggest economy and federation of nations.
Turkey, meanwhile, under Erdogan, has been rapidly burning bridges and has become a real embarrassment to NATO. Everyone, on both sides, knows they are only kept in because the US needs somewhere to fly its planes into the Middle East.
20 years ago, just a few years before Erdogan became Prime Minister, Turkey was officially recognized as a candidate for full membership of the EU. It would have been the most populous nation in the EU, with its youthful citizens doubtless making a big impact on the evolving face of Europe. The future was bright.
Today, you would struggle to find an EU diplomat who believes that there is now any possibility of Turkey ever being accepted into the EU. Indeed, if Turkey does launch a military attack upon drilling operations within internationally recognized Cypriot waters, the most likely result will be a complete EU boycott on Turkish goods and a travel block. Again, they don't need to invade.
The US was right to cut them off the F35 program after Edrogan's rocket deal with Russia. They're probably not far off to being kicked out of Nato altogether.
Though apparently not sick enough to do something about it.
Yes, yes they are, the same way they've always done.
Political issues count almost zero for the average tourist, and governments are not going to block flights or anything, just like they didn't do it when Russia invaded ucraine.
Based on the relevant Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus%E2%80%93Turkey_maritime...) and a few other sources I briefly looked over, it appears that the nub of the argument is that, due to a different, earlier dispute with Greece, Turkey was one of only 15 countries (including Venezuela, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Kyrgyzstan) that refused to sign UNCLOS, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Under international law, Cyprus has a right to certain areas of sea around its internationally recognized territory. All 167 countries who signed UNCLOS agree with the principle of territorial waters.
Turkey's invasion and annexation of the north of the island was against international rules at the time and has never been recognized as legal by any other country. Even today, Turkey is the only country which recognizes Northern Cyprus.
Now that gas deposits have been discovered in Cypriot waters, the Turks have threatened military action against any equipment installed to extract that gas. No other country believes that this would be anything other than an illegal interference in another country's territory.
Again, I do not see how this strong man nationalism and isolationism is helping the Turkish people. If Turkey had not invaded Cyprus in 1974 it would probably have become a full member of the EU by the late 1980's, shortly after Greece. That would, I believe, have been of great benefit to the Turkish economy and the Turkish people, including better human rights and better relations with neighboring countries.
I was personally sorry to see this phrase "If Turkey had not invaded Cyprus.."
Being a full member is definitely not a choice when compared to dying citizens. These are all theories.
I also think that a country with Muslim majority and Ottoman background would never be accepted in European Union.
Cyprus should not have been admitted to EU before accepting the Annan plan, unfortunately they were and now the last generation of Cypriot Turks and Greeks are getting old a solution is still far away..
Countries have no problem recognizing "British Overseas Territories" scattered around the world, conveniently 2 large town sized military bases in Cyprus, but when it comes to a less powerful country like Turkey using military power, this is reason for international isolation. Erdogan is taking it way too far now but it's been like this before him too. It's ruthless out there.
No, it really is not. It is exactly how 167 countries have agreed that maritime territory should be allocated. China's island-making shenanigans in the South China Sea are merely an attempt to hack that agreed standard.
What is problematic is Turkey's unique claim that islands should only be entitled to a 12 nautical mile territory rather than the usual 200 that Turkey and other countries are entitled to. Highly convenient for a country with lots of nearby islands inhabited by other people.
> Cyprus should not have been admitted to EU before accepting the Annan plan
The invasion was illegal by any internationally accepted standard. Therefore, the invaded people were under no obligation to accept any compromise. They democratically rejected it. It would have been against the core principles of the EU to withhold membership until they voted "the right way".
Delaying Turkey membership on the basis of invading other countries, or its human rights record, is different. That is about getting them to align with those principles before joining. Ultimately, the government of Turkey decided that their own principles were better aligned to the fast-growing nations of the Middle-East.
Turkey and Ottoman Empire before her, was forced to sign many deals that hindered her development and let European counties pillage all the resources, this is just another one.
This is more or less what they did with their maritime deal with Libya's GNA 
Which war was that? The article is trying to paint the invasion as some sort of military advancement during wartime, when it was a completely sudden invasion of another country.
Check “Cypriot intercommunal violence” on Wikipedia.