Curious what ya'll think is a major trend right now that we should be following and tracking, that might be big in 3-5-10 years.
Previously, you saw people living in hubs like SF and NYC for the high salary and high prestige jobs. But when those jobs are available from anywhere, all of a sudden the "lifestyle cities" like Boulder, Boise, Chattanooga, etc. start to look a whole lot better. You no longer have to sacrifice the high-prestige career to live in a lower cost-of-living area with access to outdoors activities.
This is going to exacerbate the divide between the haves – who can bounce from city to city, chasing the best lifestyle at all times, enabled by their remote work – and the have-nots, who are tied to one physical location because of their jobs.
It's anecdotal, but a few of my team members have been making moves out of Seattle. I can only imagine the life they can live in other cities on a Seattle-salary.
Nearly everyone I know on my team moved to Seattle for work. I'd say less than 5% are "from" Seattle.
Fresh out of college, I moved from Lubbock (small town) to Dallas (big city), again, for work. Moved from Dallas to Seattle, again, for the job not "for Seattle"
Compare to the big city (Kuala Lumpur) where there's... zoos, opera, symphonies, IKEA, nicer restaurants, libraries.
The offices are there because they're near to rich people homes. The rich people homes are there because they're next to offices.
The city has few parks. Parks are kept clean by shooing away anyone 'loitering', so there's no real leisure spots in the city except malls. It takes half an hour to get to a supermarket because of the traffic, weird highways, and another half hour to find parking. Delivery startups took off, but only in the big city.
This might not be the case with say, NYC, but it's probably similar in many large cities like Jakarta or Bangkok.
It's no coincidence that the highest paying jobs are also in the heart of traffic jams - you'd need to pay me a lot more to commute there and even more to live in such a noisy, polluted area.
They also assessed the difference in motivation between low-income and high-income movers; the role of desirability was reduced to about 17% for low-income moves, which seems to make intuitive sense since they are less likely to have the luxury of basing a move on less-economic factors.
The authors also observed a trend that younger and more well-educated movers were more likely to choose an urbanized destination, but not by too much (single-digit percentages). In contrast, marital status and whether or not you had children were substantially more influential.
I didn't do too much digging through the followup work, so I can't say anything conclusively about changes in these trends over the last 30 years.
I did wind up liking it here and have a preference toward staying, but starting every morning with a swim in the ocean and having plentiful hiking opportunities is much more of a contributing factor than the city amenities.
I'm curious if your last paragraph holds true or not. The same thing was said about "digital nomads" in the freelance space. While it certainly got a lot of headlines and made a lot of people have some wonderful fantasies (myself included), the realities of being a digital nomad really kept the trend from taking off. Family, friends, a social group, the desire to put down roots... these are things pretty ingrained in society and are hard to overcome for all but a very small number of people. I wonder if COVID forcing remote work to the mainstream will actually increase the number of digital nomads (as per your last paragraph) or merely lead to a revival of small-sized (but more lifestyle-oriented) cities like your second paragraph speaks to.
If I had to put down a bet, I'd bet on your second paragraph (people moving to smaller cities) and bet against your last paragraph (people moving readily and consistently). I'd bet that it's not the job tying people to a city, but rather their social group.
But, I like living wherever I want, and not having to move. Plus wife's family is nearby which comes in handy.
I think one big thing though about the have-nots divide increasing is this is going to speed up automation unlike anything we've seen before. Walmart is already testing getting rid of cashiers completely.
Remote work I think (and hope) will end the big cities / tech hubs and make people move further and further out and be more rural, and keep remote working growing..
Technological progress in production, like automation, reduces the proportional costs of labor, thereby accelerating inequity.
Because surplus (profit), not siphoned by management, goes to the investors (providers of capital).
This has always been true.
Some notable exceptions are profit sharing arrangements, like early Walmart, Microsoft, etc.
(Edit: Toyota too. They explicitly reward Labor for productivity improvements. I don't know if that's still true, generally. More recently, Haier has their own unique strategy for innovation and empowering labor. I'm super keen to learn more about them. I have no idea if they share the surplus more fairly. Of course, co-ops explicitly share the surplus; can't believe I forgot about them.)
Seems to me that everyone, everyone, is determined to not see the pink elephant sitting in the living room.
Paul Krugman is maybe closest, with his theory that "job stealing robots" is a convenient cover story for decline of Labor.
Like how Big Timber deflected blame for job losses onto the spotted owl away from automation.
So the US has already minimized the number of unskilled staff relative to some other countries.
Ironically, tech companies often have a shadow engineering organization of 10 or more customer service engineers per company sitting around waiting for an email to help onboard a new client.
The supermarkets are functioning fine which leads me to think that there isn't a whole lot of other in-store work waiting to be done if only more staff were free to do it. Automating the checkouts just reduces the levels of staff that you need.
But I agree that SV will get greatly affected in a detrimental way by remote work.
Pretty sure the cities the OP was referring to are Boulder Colorado, Boise Idaho, and Chattanooga Tennessee. My family prefers Knoxville due to it being closer to the Smoky Mountains, but Chatannooga was on our list when we were deciding where to live.
- Space Shuttle: $41,000/kg (24.4 t, ~$1B)
- Delta IV Heavy: $14,600/kg (24 t, $350M)
- Falcon Heavy 2R: $1,700/kg (57 t, $95M)
A good first product to make in zero G is ZBLAN, fiber optics so clear that they require up to 100x fewer repeaters than ordinary fiber, lightweight and very high value.
It's a land race for space. SpaceX and similar are racing to put their junk up their in orbit as soon as possible so they can squat. So who is going to regulate space? Will China Russia and North Korea respect ownership at 10KM up? What happens when GPS and GLONAS go out because of debris and some stupid war?
Humans have shown no ability to manage resource constraints like this without losing their shit and fucking it up. I have no faith that there won't be space drama in the next few hundred years. Maybe this hundred years.
And, to your point, the fact that it's cheaper, and it will get cheaper yet, is going to exacerbate these space regulatory issues.
I'm guessing you mean 100KM altitude? What happens at ten is clearly regulated and done so with excellent international cooperation, probably more efficiently than any other aspect of global politics.
> What happens when GPS and GLONAS go out because of debris and some stupid war?
Geostationary Earth Orbits are kept incredibly clean at 38,000km away.
Regardless we use Beidou? Or the Indian version? I have cheap retail gps sensors bought online for a few dollars here that can pick up all of them.
People should be wary of the kneejerk pessimism that permeates online discourse and not underestimate human ability to solve seemingly insurmountable issues.
Also keep in mind that humans may have put several hundred tons into orbit by now in total which is basically nothing if you compare that to the millions of tons of plastic that goes to the ocean every year. And ofc there are many many other things than plastic that ends up in the ocean as well.
also most of the stuff we put in orbit came or crashed back to earth especially the large and heavy stuff like MIR and the space shuttles.
To quote Benjamin Sisko from DS9, "It just doesn't work that way".
The gist: we could trap ourselves on earth for generations with space debris.
We've been indoctrinated from an early age to be productive, to schedule every moment, to sacrifice sleep, to always be learning, building, networking, searching and improving.
The covid19 lockdown is showing many people the benefits of disconnecting, de-scheduling, refusing or ignoring invitations, and being still with our thoughts for hours or days at a time, producing nothing of tangible economic value.
A year ago, all of my hours were optimized, quantified, and monetized. My work and social calendars were equally overstuffed, leading to a frantic feeling of being too busy and falling behind on everything.
Now I have time to experience JOMO, the joy of missing out.
Taking a view from Positive Psychology, the ABCDE explanation for this thought pattern might go something like:
* [Activating event] You observe yourself not working on side projects
* [Belief] People without side projects or their own businesses are failures
* [Consequence] Label oneself a procrastinator, and feel bad
* [Disputation] People can have meaningful/successful lives without having side projects. People require maintenance in the form of leisure/downtime. Your procrastination is yourself striving for leisure/downtime.
* [Effect] Feel good about activities you previously labelled as procrastination.
I'm not qualified in this area, but this helps me, at least.
- My son adopted Meditation
- Anything is better than just sitting around and doing nothing.
It’s a short joke, but a recurve one :-)
Just because something has a low/zero market price does not mean it has no economic value. It just means it is not valued by people with lots of money and their pals in government.
Similarly, just because something has a high market price does not mean it has real economic value. See, e.g. LBO funds and their ridiculous fees.
Market prices are determined as much by market structure as they are by people's preferences.
Historically, that was a monarch and that led to things like French revolution. I think the US needs one now.
Many long hours, insanely hard to disconnect, we definitely have two different extremes going on between people.
And, with not as many things to do and more uncertainty, I'm now much more connected (both as far as work goes as people want me to refer them or try to hire me under pretext of "how are you/your job doing in this crisis", and also reading news again which is stupid, watching TV which I normally never do, etc.).
I've never been more stressed out and connected!
This is definitely more of an American thing in my experience.
- Self-hosting. A hugely growing movement to host server-side software yourself (on a cloud provider or at home). De-platforming is not possible unless ordinary citizens can host applications on the internet, rather than being relegated to being "clients". Server software needs to be distributed as much as client software, and no re-invention of the wheel is necessary (ie: no blockchain required). I am biased here as I am the founder of a startup focusing on exactly this potential future.
I think Owncloud with its market place is a good example of an engagement into this direction but it looks like it's more like a garden of apps fitted for the platform. What we need is maybe an web-browser accessible hub where we can place or point to an app and quickly configure it to run on the server. SSH optional.
It's a bummer that that there's little demand and awareness for this, especially since we're using our devices in a world of internet services that are either paid or a privacy concern.
Since the WFH, I've been getting more and more meeting requests, often in the form of a calendar invite coming by mail. That gave me the idea of self-hosting my calendar (email is already de-googled, I have my domain + a hosting plan, etc.). I've literally spent a whole day looking at all the existing options, trying a few of them on my VPS and my Pi, etc. Incomplete documentation, abandonware, half-baked tutorials. No one seem to come close to Google calendar (the most common for the layman).
And I'm saddened that every time I want to make such a move, it's like everything is telling me to learn a skill (Python, Docker, code, etc.) before achieving my goals. This is appealing to the average user. I have a day job (that is nowhere close to tech and programming) and if something has to require not only involvement but also learning new skills before being done, it's barely worth the cost. That's, for example, why GUI took over the console for the general public.
Back to my issue, I've decided to create a Google account (without Gmail) for the sake of Calendar, Drive, etc. Unfortunately. If someone like Mozilla offered an alternative productivity suite, I'd pay for it in a heartbeat. In the mean time, I'll have to go back to big-G. Unfortunately.
One of my dreams is to make a device that would make self hosting easy and cheap enough that anyone can do it. Something like a Chromecast, where it’s a <$50 device you plug in and an app guides you through your setup. From there, the device could have a platform like Cloudron or YUNOHOST where you install services via an “App Store” like index.
The open source, self hosting community is getting quite robust now and I don’t think it will be long before it’s really feasible.
I love hearing this, because this is exactly what I'm building. Not quite there yet, but that's exactly the dream! We just posted a blog about setting up a home server and attaching it if you're interested https://kubesail.com/blog/microk8s-raspberry-pi/
YGG (PK is my all time favourite), Mez, D Double E, Flirta D., Faultsz, The Square, Crafty 893, Jamakabi, Manga St. Hilaire, Killa P, Flowdan, Riko Dan
I truly believe grime is a live genre. Some good sets off the top of my head:
And a youtube playlist of video clips I made for a friend:
with a surprise at the end that will please the jungleists
To each his own, I gave it a try and couldn't stand it
This may not be the future but I really want it to become true and am willing to devote significant money and time to make it a reality. If anyone wants to join me feel free to reach me via email.
edit: added blazor
It was blazing fast, unopinionated, and minimal. It's too bad it didn't last.
Recently I had a discussion on here about React vs PHP. The conclusion seemed to be that PHP died for no reason and on second thought it’s more popular now than it’s ever been. That might be a mainstream opinion today but five years ago? How dare you speak against the React/Node hegemony.
Phoenix LiveView might not win but it’s certainly going to define what the web looks like over the next few years.
The changes are not being driven by any need for a new language or framework, just the hype cycle of technology. And when your business depends on that hype cycle, it is in your best interest to keep that spinning as fast as possible. No collusion or conspiracy needed.
Typescript and react are a joy to work with. I miss them every day I do only python, which has been my bread and butter for 16 years.
The framework landscape for SSR is not as good but it's getting there definitely. Nextjs is promising nowadays.
I have the opposite feeling. 2010ish was when companies really started leaning in to building desktop experiences on the web and 2012/2013 was when it was clear the tools were coming up short. I don't know about you but I don't look back on Backbone fondly. It's not a coincidence that React, Vue, and Angular2 all came out around 2013/2014.
Still early days of course, but something I'll be watching closely.
I see it being used heavily for enterprises that know C#, don’t care to learn the latest JS framework, and just want to make a SPA quickly and cheaply.
WASM or client side blazor is definitely interesting, though the client must download the whole .net core runtime when they visit your site.
Open to any questions about Blazor! Big fan of Elixir, but haven’t used LiveView yet.
I can just imagine the performance of a desktop app on the browser (via WASM) without having to fiddle around with JS, front-end frameworks, event models etc. and just write software as if they were targeted towards the desktop.
Software development would get easier again and it would be possible for more people to write desktop-class software for the browser. I'm thinking a lot of engineering/technical software that were previously not feasible on a browser could be rewritten for the browser.
I truly believe that these kind of things bring happiness and stability.
Underground tunnels for fast no-traffic movement of people already exist as subways, and move orders of magnitude more people, many times faster.
Above-ground routes are much easier (thus cheaper) to adapt and change. Connecting outer-suburbs to an existing underground network is extremely difficult, it takes decades. It's hard to increase the capacity of existing networks. Not to say they aren't useful, but increasing capacity with above-ground cycle networks is much easier.
Encouraging people to cycle for shorter journeys further frees up capacity for longer trips where trains make more sense.
Roads as they are currently massively favour cars, to an unacceptable degree. I would cycle where I am if it didn't substantially increase my risk of death.
There's tiny advantage to not being rained on, but you will already want outdoors clothing for wind chill unless your entire route end to end is covered and heated, and if you're on an electric bike or scooter doing 20+mph you'll want some kind of protective wear as well, most likely.
I don't see the electric scooter or bicycle replace the car, I see it can become a competitor to the bicycle.
The people I hear from are not replacing their cars with electric bicycles (mostly) they are replacing their manual bicycles, or getting one for the first time in a long time.
Sure, we should be eating less meat. But it's not a panacea, we must address the systemic problems of industrial agriculture that makes veganism possible.
I am highly sceptical cutting meat is enough. Animal based protein, and energy is just inherently wasteful since 3/4 of intake energy is radiated away as body heat. (Yes, there is this super small niche of grass land unsuitable for humans feeding agriculture.)
I am not sure about the thermodynamics and ecology of fish in general, but I think eating predatory fish is an ecological disaster regardless of the carbon footprint.
Just to make sure, I don't think you have to quit all animal products for a sustainable future. If people go 95% plant based calorie-wise that's probably enough. Celebrate a steak once a month, commit to that, pay the real price for that!
I don't know what reduction is enough.
The low footprint of vegetarianism only works as long as there are meat eaters eating the "milk cows". If everyone stopped eating meat, the dead cows would end up on the vegetarian's bill. I hope this doesn't sound stupid and you get my twist :)
Every plant based product is better than their equivalent animal (warm-blooded mamals) product. Animals radiate away about 3/4 of the energy they consume. This means generally speaking land use for every x amount of animal produce, you'd only need 1/4 of the land to feed humans on plant produce. Of course some plant are worse than others nutritionally, but I think the overall idea of energy waste by warm-bodied animals is pretty self-evident. Soy is a pretty high quality protein mix and overall, it's questionable if overfeeding on easy proteins is a good idea health wise, e.g. see methionine, IGF-1 and cancer risk.
Fun fact: Almost all soy for human consumption in Europe is actually grown in Europe. The rainforest killing soy is grown to feed cows. See above...
Wikipedia says ATP generation alone loses 60% of energy regardless if ecto- or endothermal organism. ATP is the energy curency of life. So 60% of energy lost, before any synthesis, signaling, membrane transport, ... even happened.
Is coconut oil grown and processed in Thailand, then flown to Europe and transported by truck another few thousand miles, still better than butter made from cows milk that are raised 20km away?
It's an algebra which unifies linear algebra with quaternions and tensors.
My implementation in Julia is at https://github.com/chakravala/Grassmann.jl
We have a chat community of geometric algebra enthusiasts at https://bivector.net
Modern breakthroughs for example Maxwell's Equation and Einstein's Relativity are both heavily relied on quaternion for their discovery. For Maxwell's Equation you only need one equation with quarternion instead of four separate equations as proposed by Heaviside!
The problem is that the majority of academics and scholars are still stucked with complex number, and they are the same people who are wondering why complex number concept was originally rejected by the academics and scholars when it was first introduced.
But, what's the practical/applied angle here?
There are others like me, and of course a great deal more who have it far far worse, and I firmly believe that I should have never been allowed to happen. A part of me resents my mother and father for deciding to have another child after they knew that something like me was possible: my younger brother has a similar set of medical conditions.
I so desperately wish to see corrective genetic engineering become commonplace, and it is one of the few things which provides a faint hope for the future to me these days.
It's been mostly going sideways since 2008, now it's trending down.
This changes everything. It's like a bear market for culture.
All I see is a couple states passing some laws about police needing to use cameras and not choking people. In the last 40 years, civil rights has progressed to legalizing gay marriage and laws against discrimination for sexual orientation. I would also count marijuana legalization in some states as a civil rights matter since I believe it was used to target the black population.
The Renaissance, particularly, was particularly troubled, according to a source ... I cannot locate presently. (Podcast, history hasn't turned it up).
Social media has become a groupthink bent toward disorder. I just pick up on a lot more hostility than I remember from even 10 years ago.
All the polls showing people expecting to wind up worse off than their parents and the consistent results for older generations views.
Others, we're really fucking up.
Genuine happiness/fulfilled-ness and creativity are some of those.
My acquaintances (esp those who tend to be more 'pro-capitalism') cite Steven Pinker's 'Enlightenment Now' as a source that current economic systems aren't ripe for disruption because things are 'generally better than they were before.' While it's often vague responses when we're in conversations, I'd like to review information that articulates the opposite POV - especially in-light of higher cost of living, stagnating wages, and increasing income inequality.
Notice companies like Bolt Threads, Impossible foods, Zymergen, and why they are different. And if/when they actually start winning they’ll dramatically change the entire landscape.
I don't know enough about the others, but there are many e.g. cosmetic/skincare startup that take advantage of cheap production facilities to produce basic creams/whatever with standard ingredients and add marketing spin to pretend it's something special.
Unfortunately, the scientific method has been replaced by trust of authorities, which are proving themselves untrustworthy. The implosion of fraudulent monetary systems will complete this cycle.
Evidence-based reality will resume its ascendency, when fraudulent money is no longer available to cover over bad decision-making.
Observe specifically what happens to municipalities that depend on government largesse, and have no productive agricultural or engineering capacity, and few in the community with internal moral imperative, and the will and capability to defend the innocent...
Similarly at policy level: there is much research, but often its application is very much dependent on the frame (eg city vs region vs national scale; strong-trust Nordic country context vs low-trust Balkans or US; etc).
In the end you need the policy decision to be well reasoned and evidence-based, but this is often difficult to manage and even more difficult to communicate (especially in a polarized society like the US where everyone is either friend or enemy in the political space).
Yeah, most of us could probably stand to be more empathetic, but part of how we know this is because of evidence. Your statement is too simple.
It’s only been the last 100ish years of the masses shifting from sky wizards to science.
There’s gonna be a learning curve and lots of “nope, not that.”
The paranoia over science and the replication issue is overblown.
What you should probably be skeptical of is not “science” as a concept but what other humans tell you it means. Which is just good life advice.
Because even now, most wealth is in banks and government can freeze them when they want to.
Maybe some trend on how to [annotate and bookmark] content online you find interesting in your own collected notes.
Speaking of some note taking, there's method called [Zettelkasten] and a trend software is called [Roam Research]. It is currently trending invite only software besides new mail provider ["Hey"].
I personally know people who have been affected by this or witnessed this first hand in well known media companies and more recently at a casino.
Most were laid off and replaced with contractors, but in some cases the media people and their respective departments were demoted to freelance workers. In doing this, companies avoid covering benefits, unemployment insurance, liability costs, paid time off, etc. They're also off the hook when it comes to traditional working hours/days. At least one person has said that working 7 days a week tends to be the norm for them.
The casino employees have been threatened with layoffs if they did not return to work during the pandemic. Those who were laid off have been replaced by contractors.
It wouldn't be all that surprising if this became more prevalent across industries.
I also think unlike software it will take very few of those new technologies to change how we live in a huge way.
There are some incredible advances being made in many areas of photonics, including in everything from how to perform computations on chip (which are marked improvements over how were trying to do this back in the 90s, to little success)  all the way to how to construct tiny, ultrafast on-chip lasers for Lidar , all the way to how to do in-vivo measurement of quantities of certain compounds (which is useful for things like diabetes monitoring among many, many other things) . There are also the usual applications to AR/VR as we've recently also seen , and other medical uses like chip-sized particle accelerators for therapy . The classic other use case, for further in the future, is as a quantum computational platform .
The problem is that, like many physics fields, photonics is really, really damned technical and unintuitive (and I say this as a mathematician who works in the field!), so it's very hard to simply take a glance at it and know the benefits. On the other hand, I think this is where a huge amount of innovations in the next 2-5-10 years will be coming from and it's really going to change how we view and interact with the world.
Note: I've mixed in both papers and popular descriptions of much of the work, but either can be found for all of the things I've stated above!
Some are self-explanatory (server side rendering), while others I would have no idea how to get started in (space manufacturing). There's value in merely observing trends, but if I want to be actively involved... how do I get started?
For much of U.S. history, law enforcement meant implementing laws that were explicitly designed to subjugate Black people and enforce white supremacy. That’s why Black people, along with hundreds of thousands of others, are calling for city, state, and federal governments to abolish policing as we currently understand it. We must divest from excessive, brutal, and discriminatory policing and invest in a vision of community safety that works for everyone, not just an elite few.
We know the safest communities in America are places that don’t center the police. What we’re looking for already exists, and we already know it works. We need look no further than neighborhoods where the wealthy, well-connected, and well-off live, or anywhere there is easy access to living wages, healthcare, quality public education and freedom from police terror.
We can’t stand by while our city, state, and federal governments continue to fund an excessive, brutal, and discriminatory system of policing. We will no longer be told that what we deserve is not politically viable or logistically possible. We will no longer be deprived of what others have long enjoyed in this country: basic rights, safety, and freedom.
Worth thinking about: https://www.wsj.com/articles/good-policing-saves-black-lives...
Through the lens of Donella Meadow's work in complex systems, we can we policing pulling back and homicides increasing as:
9. Constants, parameters, numbers (subsidies, taxes, standards).
8. Regulating negative feedback loops.
7. Driving positive feedback loops.
Yet, this movement seeks to operate at a greater leverage point of:
2. The goals of the system.
1. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system — its goals, power structure, rules, its culture — arises.
Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System
People not willing to compromise and move in small steps.
Making bogeymen out of your opponents.
And, obviously, downvoting all the dissenters into the oblivion.
"Information bubbles on all sides" is vague, but it seems to imply people trying to fight racism are either fighting for the wrong reasons or misunderstand the problem they're facing. Without more detail, it doesn't contribute anything meaningful for people to take away.
And what is there to compromise on racism? The comment doesn't say any more, so it's again hard to know what it's referring to.
Commenting on the "refusal to take small steps" or "making bogeymen" also detracts from the issue by shifting the conversation to the methods and approach the movement is taking. You may earnestly believe that the protesters and the movement could benefit from changing their approach. Unfortunately, on a wider scale, this sort of rhetoric is consistently used to delegitimize dissenting voices by refusing to cooperate or acknowledge a problem unless dissenters behave themselves. It also implies that doing things in a "respectable" manner is more important than hearing and addressing the problems people are protesting.
A compromise on racism is easy: for most people being non-racist is enough to make this world better. We cannot and we should not mandate everyone to be actively anti-racist. Race relations is a complex topic. It's actually more complex than most people think and there are no easy answers. The same way like everyone should not be actively anti-covid: leave it to doctors and nurses and simply do your part not to make the problem worse.
The BLM issue is too vague to detract it further: the way it's put now it's "against all bad and for all good". Is it about black lives? Or about police brutality? Or about police accountability (or lack thereof)? Or about racism - in its direct sense when people are laid off purely because the color of their skin? Or about black culture which does not promote education and other "white people values"? Or about economic inequality that went through the roof?
And, by the way, when I wrote about refusing to make a compromise, I was thinking more about police unions: they've built the dam that is now broke open.
Look at cities willing to remove Christopher Columbus statues, etc.. there's been a tectonic shift in public opinion, maybe unlike anything we've ever seen. I'm proud to see so many people of all colors marching together for the BlackLivesMatter movement, gives me hope in humanity.
The interviewee expands essence of the parent comment out into a coherent argument.
As much as I agree with the sentiments of BLM, this cannot be overstated.
Media conglomerates are amplifying the BLM "white/black divide" to distract from the fact that law enforcement bullies and assaults EVERY ONE OF US if the circumstances are right.
And that's why no one here should follow that trend. Also p sure it will cool off within months. Everyone is already tired of it. Might come back to media attention later this year if enough blacks get killed just like with covid19.
Black live matter more than the next stupid tech trend to ride the Gartner hype cycle. Tech that doesn't include everyone shouldn't be built. Stop reading HN and get out into the streets and support your fellow human beings.
It needs to be said more. Not sorry.
We need a fundamental reassessment of our impact on the environment and planet, and how to reshape our economies and lifestyle to avert climate warming, more severe hurricane and wildfire seasons.
There’s so much human ingenuity and i believe we can overcome these challenges.. but despite all the technological advancements, we still know so little of how our planet and climate work.
We think we are the apex predator, and yet we’re still held hostage by an invisible virus.
A few years ago I read about a Japanese firm that wanted to cover massive areas on the moon with solar panels and use a similar beaming technique to send the electricity back to Earth. Hopefully they are still moving forward with that.
It's already happening with meat made from plants, but going further, you shouldn't need a cow to make milk, or a fruit tree for orange juice, or even a whole wheat grass for flour.
Indie hackers - the last 5 or so years is the first time I’ve seen a lot of info laid out for this group to thrive. The traditional business and startup advice doesn’t apply directly. Expect to see a lot more people doing this as they get dissatisfied from work or just need a bit of extra income.
Netflix and other networks raising awareness of social issues and kind of being in charge of what social issues get to be covered and what don’t. Related is education from Netflix instead of other sources.
Online universities becoming the de facto way to get a degree and people opting for those kind of degrees to cut costs and get a job. So study CS or Stats rather than Chemistry (which requires a lab). Non remote degrees seen as an upper middle class luxury and will get more expensive.
I started noticing this recently where even in Netflix shows (not documentaries) there are subtle messages. Honestly, I find it annoying because I'm there to decompress for an hour or so and not have these issues following me in one of the means of entertainments (i have enough of it at work and online already).
Well, you know the saying about fools and their money...
Autonomous cars are a difficult problem, autonomous drones are much simpler.
Package delivery, food delivery, air taxis, and a lot of previously cost prohibitive applications as well.
The cost and complexity of a drone is low, and an airbag should mitigate much of the risk.
Is the idea that it has some kind of collision detection system and deploys them in advance of the collision?
Edit: Did a quick search, I see now that one of the ideas is that it auto-deploys in case of malfunction that is likely to lead to a crash.
We should rethink various jobs and activities, in the angle of "usefulness" or "toxicity". Consider advertisement, entertainment, luxury, tourism, skiing, golf, air-travel, .. even space industry as well since it's mentioned in comments here for example on one side, and permacultures, remote-work, environment-friendly transports, environmental-friendly leisure and sports,.. on the other side
I'm not saying we should live like thousands years ago, no, we should just try to stop wasting and harming our limited environment and ourselves as well, with this consumerism frenzy of products and services
Leopold Kohr and Jacques Ellul pointed it out.
Also, it's going to be a long time before we go back to normal so companies will need to adapt. Once things change to work from home first it will be hard to go back to an office only work environment.
I know that I would be willing to work from a low cost coast city if I only need to show up to my office 1 or 2 times a month. I'm even willing to get paid a bit less.
As always employer will look to pay the least so they will do their best to push salaries down when ever they can.
But keep in mind it will still be a well paid job when compared to other careers.
I (try to) extract relevant trends, micro-trends and some edge cases from daily news.
Picture this, instead of leaving your house to work (or go to school) you put on your headset and enter your work/school environment immediately. This solves the problems of travelling (time wasted, environmental impact, etc.) as well as being physically isolated. Most of this type of activity is performed sitting down so VR is a good fit.
It's not even particularity expensive or technologically difficult, especially if you work in an office job. Instead of requiring a large, expensive monitor (or multiple monitors) you can use a VR rig to have as many monitors as you wish. I can imagine being very productive in such a world. I'm already doing all of my inter-personal contact using video conferencing and VR would only make that better; I love the idea of not having to worry what my hair looks like or trying to remember not to pick my nose while I'm on camera.
I think education would see major benefits of VR, especially as you have to isolate everyone anyway. My wife is an educator and next year's teaching environment is radically different than previous years. The current plans include having kids staying in one classroom all day, reducing free time, no large groups for anything (field day, pep rally, etc.) However, if you embrace VR you can take the whole class on a field trip to every museum on Earth, dig deep into science (this Magic School Bus), or even meet with kids from other countries. This is all (relatively) cheap and easy to do.
This all said, there are definitely opportunities to make VR better and cheaper. Right now, it can be expensive on the individual level to get a good set up, but if you factor in office space costs the price looks more reasonable. Add in advances in light projection and head tracking hardware I think the price begins to plummet and the quality gets better and better.
It's disheartening how many people don't see the dangers in only being able to access media/software at the whim of a large corporation who can shut said access off at any time for any reason.
Given a good connection and not being too far from the datacenters, it really is viable.
People aren't just not paying their rent and mortgages in the US - they're not paying their student loans at an alarming rate.
You can repossess homes - you cannot repossess knowledge.
The only thing I see is Hungary and interference of China, but those things will usually resolve themselves.
Nobody trusts China = I agree.
I don't think anyone considers even the pound.
But, Trump made sure that a lot of people are starting to back away from the US. So I can't agree with the "going the opposite part".
If Trump would see another term i foresee huge troubles ahead, the US dollar would be the least of the troubles.
Not only US citizens distrust him. There is not a single ally that Trump hasn't stabbed in the back.
Eg. Trying to force Russia into the G7 is just one example.
How about zero net economic growth for 20-25 years and no prospect of that trend changing?
Countries in the Eurzone who have seen negative real economic growth since 2007 or 2008:
Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain
The only growth economies over the past decade are smaller: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland
In 2008 Germany's GDP per capita hit $45,400. In 2019 it was $46,500. That's a massive real negative contraction given the debasement of the Euro and even a tiny bit of real inflation per year. That's the most potent economy in all of Europe and certainly in the Eurozone. The outcomes for France, Italy and Spain are that much worse over that span of time. Now Germany is facing a big hit to their advanced industrial foundations, as China and electric cars eat into the things they do particularly well. Germany will suffer de-industrialization (which they've held off longer than anyone else) and they have no replacement plan for that situation. Will Germany somehow come up with a massive, global tech economy to rival the US and China? There's no evidence of trend in the past decade. How does the Eurozone fare well without Germany moving it forward? It doesn't.
In the time the Eurozone has stagnated the US went from a GDP per capita of $48,300 to $65,000 and the US economy will again recover from the pandemic faster than Europe's economy, broadly, will; for the exact same reason it did with the great recession. That will add further weakness to the Euro by contrast.
Here's what that stagnation looks like: https://i.imgur.com/ep9kSOw.jpg
Besides that giant problem, Germany is going to again face enormous pressure around the way they inflate the value of the Euro at the expense of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece (making them not-as-competitive on exports). As with the non-recovery after the great recession, that problem will again be amplified and felt as these economies attempt to recover from the pandemic recession. They all know it's unfair that Germany gets to free-ride on a cheap currency (cheap for Germany, expensive for Italy & Co), producing the world's largest trade imbalance.
So the Eurozone is already on year 12-13 of negative growth. They were just beginning to inch above the great recession line of 2007-2008 in nominal terms. Now they've been reset by a minimum of five years, given how slow the major Eurozone economies have been growing. More likely, it's going to be a lost 20-25 years in total, stretching from 2007 to 2027 or 2032 approximately. And then at some point the next recession will hit, and on it goes.
The Euro is not going to do well accordingly.
But there is no alternative for the current situation, breaking up the euro zone would be very bad.
Since I don't have a good response for now, I do wish to mention that the eurozone is still very "young".
And for Belgium. Please check out the numbers for Flemish part vs Wallonia. Wallonia is out little place similar to Greece... They are not improving and just want more money, but it's already going on for >50 years. It's kinda depressing.
( I'm from Belgium)
Ps. Do you have keybase? I would be interested in asynchronous discussions :)
Largely by adding trillions to the GDP via hedonic and imputed contributions.
GDP exists these days to show that government debt is below x% of GDP.
The Euro is a scam, with most EU members "sick men" and Germany unwilling to foot their national pensions and welfare schemes.
Allies say they hate Trump publicly, until they need a superpower to intervene, then they all call him Daddy.
US citizens love Trump ... just not the coastal elites and wannabe elites.
Who was the only leader with the common sense to halt air travel from China during a pandemic? While everybody else was virtue signalling, Trump made a command decision that is obviously correct to all in hindsight. The only man on earth the CCP fears is Trump. What does that tell you?
The following link variously calls Italy, Greece, Turkey, France and Portugal "sick men" Not a lot of countries left, is there?
Everyone is being diplomatic about it, while Trump is acting like a baby without candy.
The "elites" have never received this much money because of tax benefits, it's nuts. While the entire country is divided.
Euro is also not a scam, it's just young for the most ambitious project in the world spanning an entire continent.
Ps. 10 years before that, the USSR fell without a single bullet, by the predecessor of EU when it was called the EEC.
Care to support this - with you know - evidence?