Ask HN: evaluating project ideas, how do you do it?

[karolist]

I've read some articles in the past days about idea verification before diving into it. I think that nails the problem I have when building stuff - it looks like it might be useful for someone to pay for it, but I don't really know. I've given up on "build it and they will come" model because there's simply no time to execute false ideas while maintaining a full time job.

My last app is youtube -> mp3 converter, I've spent 3 weeks of midnight grinding building a python powered backend server on top of ffmpeg and another ~2 weeks building the frontend website. Launched in mid Jan it now has very few subscribers, adsense rev. was laughable so I took it off completely. Should I have known how hard it was to gain search engine rankings, how unwilling users are to pay for such service - doubt I'd do that again. But I did not verify it, I simply hoped there's still room in this space (well, maybe I'm just doing it wrong, who knows). How could have I verified it?

My next idea is to build a self hosted client, workflow, invoice and preview manager targeted at small digital service firms, such as countless psd2html companies so that they could install it, have a link on their website called "client area" where their customers could login, see progress, invoices, give feedback on shown work. Now this does seem useful to me as I've been into these type of services, but would anyone pay at least 50 bucks per year? To verify it, do I just create a wufoo form and approach target audience directly, promising some incentives for filled survey?

Appreciate any insights.

[mindcrime]

Have you read "The Four Steps To The Epiphany?" If not, get it, read it, then read it again.

http://www.amazon.com/Four-Steps-Epiphany-Steven-Blank/dp/09...

If you have no idea what I'm talking about, then check out the series of videos that starts here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5E38frHo1U

Or read some of Steve's blog posts from here:

http://steveblank.com/category/customer-development/

[karolist → mindcrime]

Thanks, did not know about the book. I'll be sure to check it out. The video though was more like an interest generator than anything concrete.

[mindcrime → karolist]

Yeah, the book goes into a LOT more detail. It's actually a detailed step-by-step roadmap for how to go from and hypothesis / guess, to a validated product idea with a defined, existing and profitable market. It's oriented mostly towards enterprise software scenarios, but he does point out where the same ideas can be applied to consumer products to some extent.

Honestly, if enterprise scenarios are on your roadmap at all, I think you may find it to be one of the most valuable books you'll ever read. I'm just now in the process of putting his process into action for my own startup, and I'm solidly convinced that this is The Way To Go (esp. for enterprise software, which happens to be what I'm doing.)