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It's not just far from certain. It is simply unlikely. The "hypotheses" for explaining seasonal variations in transmissibility are nothing but a wild-guess/hope.

Kinshasa, the capital of DR Congo, is a city with 11 million people. About the same size as Wuhan or New York City. According to [1] there were only 25 deaths due to Covid19 in the whole country. Why so few? 21 million people live in Lagos, Nigeria, yet the whole of Nigeria has seen only 31 deaths. On the other hand, I have to admit, there were quite a bit more deaths in Sao Paolo, Brazil, but it's still an order of magnitude less than in the New York State.

Maybe Africa and Brazil are faking the numbers, but Australia most likely not. Only 76 deaths so far. Argentina has recorded only 159 deaths.

You could say this is only circumstantial evidence. My point is that we are not trying to prove things "beyond any reasonable doubt". We are trying to form the most informed opinion. And there are quite a few factors that point in the direction of reduced infectiousness during the Summer. Schools closed? Check. People away for vacations? Check. More UV light which kills airborne viruses? Check. People having more vitamin D in their bodies? Check. Air more humid, so the tissue inside your nose is better protected? Sure thing. Better immune systems due to less stress due to the ambient light? Sure thing. Etc, etc.

You can question any of these things. But in a Bayesian framework they tilt the scales little by little. But that's just me.

[1] https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:e...

Jakarta and Istanbul have a huge rise in deaths, similar to European countries, but they have suspiciously low recorded numbers of deaths officially due to Covid. http://archive.vn/vOoRp

It looks to me like you are cherry picking data, and wrapping it up to appear objective. Looking at “case” numbers from countries with poor heath systems is especially misleading. Australia could be an outlier. Jakarta and Istanbul are better proof that temperature is not that important.

My prior is that I have seen lots of people use the “temperature” argument because they want to believe it, which trumps your prior, wink.

Edit: Note that science is mostly about finding counter-examples to a hypothesis. Jakarta is a good counter-examples to the hypothesis “Covid is not much of a problem in hot temperatures”. Istanbul was not (it is actually tepid there in March). And this brings up some other counter-examples: https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/494428-trump...

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