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That's some major revisionism. No credible source was ever suggesting a 5% IFR. For example the Imperial model was using 0.9% given UK's age distribution. That looks likely to be spot on.

And Ioannidis? He was quite certain that the CFR was going to be a little higher than 0.1%. Yes. CFR, not IFR. So he's off by two orders of magnitude.

At various points in interviews and articles he used Diamond Princess, South Korea, Germany, Iceland as strong evidence of miniscule fatality rates, in every single case selectively ignoring that deaths lag symptoms which was already well known at the time. All of them had their death rates double or more after he used them, and it was easily predictable based on recent exponential growth and death lag.

In his stat article he was saying it is conceivable if we didn't know about it we wouldn't have been able to even detect it in the death numbers after it ran its course (he has since walked that back).

Even the other day after his serology preprint he was saying it doesn't seem to have a higher chance of killing you than seasonal flu for each person infected: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s&t=1h9m50s

And he claims the WHO said 3.4% of people who get infected would die:


But they actually said that was the case fatality rate at the time. Their actual quote was:

> Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died

His data from the Diamond Princess is completely outdated. He cited 7 deaths. We are now up to 13 with 7 more on critical condition. He has been completely wrong in each of his predictions.

I would respect him more if he just argued from am economic perspective that the economic damage is greater but his wild hypotheses about Covid being comparable to the common cold or flu have been completely refuted by all data.

> We are now up to 13 with 7 more on critical condition.

Minor note, but it appears we are up to 14 now - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_D...

> Another Japanese man in his 70s died on 14 April, making him the fourteenth fatality.

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