Age Range (1) (2) (3)
0 to 9 0.1% 5.0% 0.002%
10 to 19 0.3% 5.0% 0.006%
20 to 29 1.2% 5.0% 0.03%
30 to 39 3.2% 5.0% 0.08%
40 to 49 4.9% 6.3% 0.15%
50 to 59 10.2% 12.2% 0.60%
60 to 69 16.6% 27.4% 2.2%
70 to 79 24.3% 43.2% 5.1%
80+ 27.3% 70.9% 9.3%
Unmitigated fatalities (no intervention) would be 0.5 million in the UK or 2.2 million in the US over just a few months.
Mitigation of suppression is going to be a big thing, there will be a premium on anything that can lift the mantle on society.
Economically this is going to hit very hard, and lead to a global depression and a lot of bankrupt companies. I almost fear the treatment might kill more than the disease after all the global economic impacts are accounted for.
I guess that what will happen will be a muddle - increase healthcare surge capacity, infection control with new tech (phones and reporting), better testing and tracing - and use of limited amounts of vaccine when it becomes available... even 10k shots would make a difference I suppose.
I think that the hope that the government has is that they can build out a bigger surge capacity in a few weeks/months and then be able to mitigate the measures that they have in place. I think that this is wishful thinking at the moment - but I really hope I am wrong.
Also ironically this pandemic is exactly what the world needs to shut everything for 18 months and therefore finally take (involuntary) a real measure to stop further global warming. On a philosophical level one might say it’s better to fuck over one generation now and later save many more generations to come by keeping this planet inhabitable. As if we got punished because we were unable to act responsibly ourselves.