uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
Lot of EU countries / USA are already late with respect to our timeline, aka they may have it worst if they don't act fast.
They simply did not test for Covid-19 in other states. US repeated the same strategy: no testing for Covid-19 - means no information about Covid-19 cases.
China have successfully paused the epidemic, but they haven't stopped it. Unless we fully eradicate the disease globally (highly unlikely given the presence of asymptomatic carriers and the spread of the disease to low-income countries), they'll be back to the beginning of the exponential curve as soon as the lockdown is lifted. That's better than nothing, but it's a million miles from a solution.
Lets assume all cases were identified. 59 million did not get the disease. It kills 4%.
A vaccine will take at least 18 months to develop. Can China keep Hubei locked down at the current rate for 18 months? Could we do that in the West?
If the answer is no, what happens when we reduce the social distancing?
Social distancing is about slowing down the spread, not eradicating the disease. What will eradicate it one way or the other is the immune system or death: once you’ve had it you are unlikely to get reinfected or you will die. To avoid the latter case you need ICU time or eventually a vaccine. Also consider that buying a month of time means an extra month to provide more ICU beds, better testing capacity, better understanding of what is effective prevention, etc.
Average ICU stay is about 2 weeks, so that's 3.6 years to filter everyone through.
A vaccine will take at least 18 months to develop.
you are just taking for granted the data provided to you by an authoritarian state
1) Lots of epidemiological papers about the Wuhan epidemic use data from phone carriers (not the government) to track the spread and make predictions, and they were generally pretty good with their forecasts. The numbers reported by the government are consistent with the forecasts from scientists.
2) The numbers reported by China are also consistent with the spread observed _outside_ of China. You can't lie about the numbers because every other country would detect an anomalous number of imported cases. (Case point - In Canada, we're importing way more cases from the US than you'd expect if there were actually only 1200 cases in the US. This is rather because the US is lagging so far behind in testing, rather than outright deception.)
The absolute numbers don't even matter that much - what matters is the trend and the number of new cases going to zero. Look at epidemiology paper - they always assume only like 10% of infected cases are tested and confirmed. The epidemic really is coming to a close in China, still gaining momentum in Europe, and coming in a big way soon to North America.
Please provide a source for this. I have not seen any of this data used. The data I see used is from the CCP's official data.
> You can't lie about the numbers because every other country would detect an anomalous number of imported cases.
This is absolutely false. Because flights have been suspended from China to most countries, and China itself has been on lockdown, the number of imported cases to other countries does not reflect the growth of the virus inside of China.
> The absolute numbers don't even matter that much - what matters is the trend and the number of new cases going to zero. Look at epidemiology paper - they always assume only like 10% of infected cases are tested and confirmed. The epidemic really is coming to a close in China
Please provide proof that is not coming from CCP.
No offense, but there's no reason to believe you on this without providing sources. Most of what you have said smells like BS.
IMHO he should turn off the collision model. The effect will still be there, but the logistic parameters will be different.
Another argument is that we just need it to grow slow enough for a vaccine to be ready.
As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”
What they don't do is completely stop it.
Lets assume China and South Korea manage to stop every single person from having it - even people with mild symptoms, and get 99% of people crossing the borders into quarantine for 14 days.
They then lift the lockdown.
Aren't they simply back to the stage Italy was in 6 weeks ago? A couple of weeks later one or two of the 1% of people avoiding quarantine. They can try the "contain" phase again, but eventually that will fail, so after 4 months from loosening the reigns, they're back into major outbreaks and back with lockdown. Expect that to happen many times over the next 18 months.
Even with a vaccine we haven't managed to eliminate polio or measles, and almost everyone is immune to them and doesn't carry it, we won't be able to eliminate covid either.
I think it is still early to say we know, but it also looks like there is a period of immunity after infection. So there's a fair chance that will also slow the spread of each repeated outbreak.
You can make a very large dent. My guess is in these 3 countries you’re not seeing every child vaccinated with Polio. Hopefully with COVID-19 the anti-vaxers will quiet down and we’ll get more herd immunity generally.
We don’t know what measures China will take to ensure their curve stays flat. They might keep the lockdown until there are 0 cases and fully close their borders. This is where having a competent authoritarian government that people trust is actually beneficial. They might be able to do it.
Meanwhile I have zero faith that the US gov (where I live) will be able to handle this situation. It’s going to be wide spread, and will leave a giant unemployed workforce in its wake.
Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of cases where people get affected explode once again?
The question is when will this virus go away? (if ever). Will everybody catch it eventually? Will the panic fade and Corona be just another (and much deadlier) strain of the flu?
That’s what they’re driving at.
What if it makes everyone infertile?
Real Children of Men scenario.
The measures taken are optimistic, but when everything is one the line, you have to make pessimistic decisions. First avoid human extinction.
Making bets with human kind as the wager are immoral in the highest order.
Probably never. It seems fairly likely there’ll be a vaccine in the next couple of years.
That's like saying humans are just another type of salmon.
If someone has a better approach, I’d love to hear it.
I wonder if having known that for weeks now has lead to better social distancing between those groups, even if interactions within the low risk group has stayed rather high. Could lead to a lot of spread with very little detection because we largely only test for and catch the really bad cases.
I'm not sure if the long-term outlook is "we're all going to get it" like the flu, or we're trying to stave as much of it off before a vaccine is widely available.
It is so, at least in Italy. Basically they told us the reason of these measure is to spread the cases over a larger time frame... but nobody has said it's to reduce the number of cases.
Other than that, nice simulations. :)
The assumption is wrong. There are several cases of recovered patients getting coronavirus again. This virus is similar to HIV.
There will always be individual examples. But what is the norm.
These measures always have a political meaning, because they effectively create a separation between those included and those excluded from the quarantine. Such a political move will pressure some politicians toward implementing these lockdowns if they are targeted toward foreigners and away from them if implemented toward a domestic subgroup.
It may be easy to ban travel from Europe, but very hard to ban travel from Washington state.
Plenty of people with their fancy college degree are incurious, and plenty of people that barely made it out of high school are curious.
It's an appealing shorthand, but it's not a great one.
Please don't put words in my mouth when I never said there was a 1:1 relationship.
It's also not something I can look at before deciding whether I want to pay for it, not like a product in a shop or something I can order and return (unused) for 14 days. If paying 50 cents for this article was possible, I would have no idea what I'm getting (beyond the title "Corona Simulator") or whether it's worth it, though a one-time 50 cents charge would definitely be more considerable than a recurring and more expensive subscription.
Tech news I keep up with at Tweakers.net, where I have a subscription. Well, and HN again of course, but a lot of that is personal blogs, show/ask HN posts, and a minority of what I click is research/tech news which then breaks down further into many different outlets.
I also use Reddit but the closest sub I have to news is r/globaltalk, so that's mostly people talking about what's going on near them and not journalists that need to be paid.
People in Wuhan heard the quarantine was coming and hundreds of thousand fled.
Then, everyone was forced to stay together without access to medical supplies due to the quarantine. That is why the fatality rate was so much higher in Wuhan.
If China hadn’t arrested the whistle blowers, the situation would be a lot different.
Doesn't that suggest it doesn't spread particularly easily?
All in all, 1% of those that caught it died, and cruise ships skew towards older people.