The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million. And that's what's going to happen with COVID19. It is far more severe than the flu.
We know COVID19 is as contagious, given how fast it's spreading and how unstoppable it is (R0>2, asymptomatic transmission, airborne). And we now have 4 independent estimates that place the Infection Fatality Ratio at about 0.5% to 1.7% which is between 5x and 17x deadlier than the flu (0.1%): https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1230977769795776512
Incidentally, this makes COVID19 comparable to the 1918 Spanish Flu (IFR ~2%) according to experts (see link above). And keep in mind the IFR, unlike the CFR, is the metric that takes into account undetected mild cases. The Case Fatality Ratio is around 9% right now.
So based on this, I predict it will go pandemic and will kill 1 million, and probably a lot more.
COVID19 is the most severe (ie. contagious + fatal) airborne disease since the Spanish Flu.
Fortunately we know a lot more about viruses today than we did in 1918. The virus has already been mapped genetically, and many labs around the world are hard at work on an anti-viral treatment. We shouldn't get complacent of course, but it's likely that this thing can be contained and treated eventually.
I read today about a device from Israel that helps the lungs quickly clear phlegm, thus reducing the coughing behavior that spreads the disease. The Chinese are starting to manufacture and deploy it, so hopefully it will cut back on the spread at least a bit.
in vitro: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0
>Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, has been tested in 135 cases in Beijing and southern China's Guangdong Province. Among them, 130 patients have light and common symptoms, and five are severe patients.
>None of the patients with light and common symptoms have developed severe symptoms. Four severe patients have been discharged from hospital, and one has seen severe symptoms mitigated to normal, Xu said. http://www.china.org.cn/china/2020-02/22/content_75732846.ht...
Which seems quite promising. Also it could be used prophylactically.
well, for saying that.
That 30 million dead, and probably another 300 million hospitalized and maybe 50 million that need icu care.
Should probably go without saying that we don’t have the ICU beds to handle that in the western world, let alone in developing countries.
We also haven’t had anything like the Spanish flu in the US since we’ve had the modern health insurance system. Is blue cross going to have the resources to pay for all those extra hospital visits? What about all the long term side effects from the millions of people that had acute respiratory failure and survived.
Also something else to consider -- what if this goes epidemic in the US during the elections this year? They'll have to cancel rallies, campaign events, maybe even the party conventions.
Every cloud has a silver lining :)
>Is blue cross going to have the resources to pay for all those extra hospital visits?
If the government ends up bailing them out this could be a step towards single payer health care in the US.
Countries in the West over 40 at the median:
Germany, Italy, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Spain, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Serbia, Bosnia, Czech, Finland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Romania, Denmark, Poland, Canada, Slovakia, France, Belgium, Ukraine, Sweden, Belarus, UK, Russia
Germany has half its 83 million population over 48 years of age. Italy is the 5th oldest country at the median. Covid will hit very hard against older populations.
edit: probably also rationing: Canned goods are starting to look a bit bare at our local supermarket in Florence, about 200km from Italy's COVID19 cases. https://twitter.com/JacekWork/status/1231900845802954757
edit-2: Residents in Milan, Italy have raided the grocery stores as panic about COVID19 and city lockdowns sets in. https://twitter.com/RuralCdn/status/1231969752890957824
Interesting, this is always my argument against these fatality ratio estimates, can you explain how the IFR can take undetected mild cases into account? Does it just assume at random how many of those cases exist?
That’s assuming no containment effort, like with seasonal flu. Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing.
I'm a bit confused. Isn't expecting it to be devastating the very attitude needed for authorities to justify engaging in the containment methods needed to reduce the harm caused?
how long can they get away with locking people up in their homes? There will be tipping point when those who are supposed to deliver the first-response and do the policing will also become a vector for spreading the disease. Things will escalate quickly no matter if the attitude is "defeatist" or optimistic.
How much hotter do you think it would have to get to make that virus die out?
It's similar for Malaysia and Thailand since they're still in the tropics, except those countries are less dense.
It very clearly is and it's out of the box, they can't stop it now. The US should be shutting down all travel into and out of the country, full quarantine from the rest of the world. We'd have a chance at stopping it from doing to the US what it has done to China, if we acted immediately, before it's across Europe and more of Asia and then imported in stealth mode by travelers from those regions that are unaware they're infected.
Back in reality, the US economy will look like China's frozen economy, within a month or two, unless Covid is stopped soon. More likely, it's going to spread from Italy across Europe, and continue to spread across Asia. From those hyper economic zones, the US will be guaranteed to import it from multiple sources (no single country to shut down travel with).
China went full totalitarian to an extreme, and couldn't stop it. Covid froze the second largest economy and did it in the span of a month. What chance does the rest of the world stand at stopping it? None.
Bill Gates is worried about it spreading across Africa (and said in an interview a few weeks ago, when asked about his plans for the year: "well, I plan to travel a lot less this year" - yeah). He's obviously properly worried. It will kill a large number of people in poorer economic regions that will see their healthcare resources overwhelmed. The US is nowhere near prepared for what's likely about to hit.
If we had a government that wasn't starved, it might also be preparing sufficient resources for if/when the virus does reach epidemic proportions here.
Also, Americans have been trained to avoid the medical system and tough it out for cost-saving reasons, that training is going to be counterproductive here.
As you said:
> It very clearly is and it's out of the box
This doesn't follow. It doesn't matter how large an economy is affected. The primary factor is contact between infected and healthy people. Areas with less population density might have a good shot at keeping infections down, like a lot of areas in Europe.
You misspelled America. Europe has a pretty high population density in comparison.
To add an important point: In both countries, they have detected covid-19 only well after it has spread inside the country. E.g. in Italy it started with one severely ill patient who went to the hospital and got tested positive for covid-19. Then they recursively traced people that person has been in contact with and found over a hundred cases. They still haven't found "patient zero" yet, the first person in that chain who entered Italy with the disease. Before, it has been all in the dark. There are likely many such pools of carriers all over the world. This aspect of covid-19 is its real danger: in many cases the disease is asymptomatic so you don't get a test and keep interacting with people normally, but it's still able to infect others.
I don't understand how the virus can be asymptomatic? How does it reproduce and what triggers it to become symptomatic?
Some viruses of course have gone so far as to become part of our genome. Is that asymptomatic?
Coronavirus however has a really long infectious period before symptoms can appear. Which I guess is to its evolutionary advantage and thus unlikely to disappear (just guessing on this part)
Symptoms like coughing and sneezing that discharge large droplets from the respiratory tract are a lot more effective at spreading the virus onto other hosts, but it appears that this virus is contagious enough that even asymptomatic hosts could spread it.
We have people who have never been and have no contact with anyone who has been to China, been in the vicinity of Chinese (e.g., tourist centers chocked full of Chinese tourists), or are Chinese; developing infections with Coronavirus. I am more than open to other suggestions and theories, but small towns in remote areas of Italy that have very little if any direct contact with the rest of the country, let alone China, especially over winter, seems quite peculiar; unless we simply have not identified (or officials are keeping secret) a far larger outbreak in cities.
And please don't try to tell me that western governments would not keep secrets or be dishonest. We are all adults and smart here, let's act like it.
Edit: a commenter below correctly pointed out that that 38yo man is being referred to as "patient one" not "patient zero". My bad.
I'm not an expert, so I looked up what "Patient Zero" is defined as. Wikipedia  defines it as the case that has been detected first, but also says that media has used the term to refer to the source of the disease. So the Italian media's use actually matches the Wikipedia definition, while my use in the post above, as in this CNN post  matches the other definition. Sadly the term is a bit vauge.
I've seen report that the first case was in contact with a person that had been in China but showed not symptoms and even might have tested negative at some point. If they get re-tested and show positive now, or some of their possessions do, that solves the mystery.
Iran with a 19% mortality rate (on a small scale)!
Also the mortality rate appears to be 3.2% where for a while it was in the low 2s.
If this grows into a true pandemic, it will to the best of my knowledge be the first stress test of our Just-In-Time style of inventory management at grocery stores.
We can expect CFR in the US to be fairly low (approx 2%) as long as the availability of these resources permits treatment for all who need it. After saturation, however, the CFR will move asymptotically toward approx 15%.
Medical system saturation is believed to be the main reason the CFR in Hubei is much worse than other provinces.
The US has about 62k mechanical ventilators, about half of which are already occupied at any given time, and half of the available ones are purpose-built for infants in NICUs. So let's assume we begin to have a real problem above (62k/4)/0.18 == 86k simultaneous US cases.
I'd assume oxygen supplies should be easy to scale up. No idea about scaling up the manufacture of ventilators, or if the (much more numerous, and cheaper) CPAP machines in the US could be used as stand-ins. Perhaps someone more familiar with these devices can chime in.
> Medical system saturation is believed to be the main reason the CFR in Hubei is much worse than other provinces.
This would practically be a Denial of Service Attack on any health system, no matter the country in which that health system is based in. Which is why it is so important to try to contain the virus spread before we get to the "move asymptotically toward approx 15%" phase.
Worse, a lot of medical equipment (though not sure about artificial respirators/ventilator) is made in China, whose manufacturing capacity has been drastically affected by this epidemic.
At least in the US you largely have to come in by air. Yes of course there are land borders. Canada is one but fits the same description of most cross-border travel (apart from to the US) is by air. The border with Mexico is... probably more of an issue.
Anyway, the benefit of this is that it gives you a central screening point. Given that carriers can be asymptomatic it's not impossible someone will slip through but it's more difficult for someone to convince themselves they just have a cold and they need to go home, to work or otherwise move across a border and spread the infection.
The Northern hemisphere summer really can't come soon enough.
AFAIK there are no confirmed cases in Mexico. It wouldn't surprise me if that was because of the inability of the government to detect it.
I live in Mexico and I believe if it gets here it will be unstoppable. The government doesn't have the resources China has to contain and track infected people.
It could be problematic, though, because lots of people travel during the summer. There are probably millions of people queued up to visit Italy, Spain, Britain, etc. The Europeans take long vacations, so populations will be particularly mobile in July and August.
I wonder if the U.S. might be slightly less vulnerable to contagion, since Americans tend to visit beaches, national parks and other less crowded places, whereas in Europe the tourist attractions are in crowded cities.
It's going to be an interesting few months before a vaccine is hopefully found.
Very cold and very hot temperatures would reduce range of droplet transmission and viability of fomites. (contamination)
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus... (most up-to-date counter and news aggregator which includes a source for each reported number)
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/ (strictly moderated, lots of links to scientific reports and papers, no hoaxes and fake news)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBbls... (spreadsheets with interesting charts)
> We, as individuals, can also try to plan for basic contingencies. Companies can cross-train key staff members so that one person’s absence won’t derail the business. Family members and friends should be watchful of one another’s health and welfare, and stand prepared to care for the moderately ill if hospitals become overtaxed.
> “Pandemic” isn’t just a technical public health term. It also is — or should be — a rallying cry.
I would add that it is helpful to have a stock of at least 3 or so weeks of food and supplies so that you can, if needed, quarantine yourself and take care of yourself and your family/relations well. There isn't enough hospital space for everyone and a lot of people with the virus aren't sick enough to take that space from the those that really need it.
How would that work in practice? The last I heard you can catch this virus pretty easily just by having air touch your eye.
A lot of people live in either a city or a suburban area and most apartments and houses aren't air tight. Wouldn't your breath get circulated out of your apartment, mixed in with the outside air and drift over to your neighbor -- or is the virus not that susceptible to spreading?
Not an expert, but if I understand correctly the virus would be unlikely to survive that long outside the body. Even in the cruise ship which was docked in Japan, which would be a bit of a "worst-case" scenario for the transmission you describe, most people didn't get sick.
Stock up now while no-one is panicking yet. Don’t waste money buying weird stuff - Just get stuff you’ll use anyway over the next few months.
That's what triggers panic buying... It's a snowball effect.
Socially, you're probably still better off buying sooner rather than later, because that means the system has more time to restock and ship things around for people later. If you're part of the end pile up, you're another stresser at the worst time.
As evidence of this... the ideal time to stock up with emergency supplies was months or even a couple of years ago, when it would bother nobody. I've buffed up some supplies a bit, but I wasn't starting from scratch because I've been keeping stuff on hand for a while now. Giving the system months or years of headstart is better than weeks, but weeks or even a single week is better than nothing.
Masks is slightly different I will agree. They are genuinely in short supply and medical workers need them more.
I speak from experience preparing for hurricanes. If you wait until the last minute, you're going to be woefully unprepared.
I'll also note that I use an alternate front-end for HN - hckrnews - which by default sorts by time, so the only way I'm ever aware of this sort of complaint is when someone brings it up in the comments.
As for this topic in particular, there has been a lot of coverage about COVID-19/2019-nCoV recently, but there hasn't been a lot of new information. I suspect people are flagging the topic because they're getting their regular updates on it from other communities and want HN to remain a place where topics that are of particular and specific interest are posted. Once I realized that's how the majority of the community sees it, I stopped thinking of the rise and fall of topics here as being based on whether or not they are "newsworthy" and it started making a lot more sense.
You also have localized concerns, like, at what point are all the people ordering from Amazon going to stop because they're afraid of getting the virus shipped to them? What is Amazon doing about their worker's health, especially in light of the rather persistent rumors this can spread while asymptomatic? On the one hand, I see people claiming that the virus can't survive being shipped very well and on the other hand we have Amazon striving to ship faster and faster, to say nothing of the actual delivery person.
Whether we like it or not, this is rapidly becoming "tech industry" news too. Unless we are very lucky, by the end of this week, I suspect that's going to be obvious to everyone.
As I've said a few times about prep, even if you don't get the virus or your area never has to be locked down, you ought to be doing prep work anyhow. If it isn't COVID-19, it'll be a quake, or a really bad normal flu season, or any number of other things. You make society more resilient and better able to deal with "true" emergencies when you've prepped enough to take care of yourself and not drain vital social resources at the worst time. You don't usually get lucky and have this kind of warning about oncoming issues. Prepping for a pandemic isn't identical to all the other things you may actually experience, but there's a lot of overlap.
The reason to control the spread and delay infection (not avoid it; that's probably impossible) is to allow the health-care infrastructure critical time to manage the flow of sick. If we all got sick at once, there'd be no capacity to treat 99.9% of us. If we spread it out over a year or more, we can treat more people and have a better outcome.
If we're capable of consuming news from a variety of sources, digesting them and coming to our own conclusions, that should be enough. If not, hand holding isn't going to help.
The fact check seems quite wishy washy https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-government-laborator...
and here's the lab leak theorizing for what it's worth https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coro...
Shouldn't we have headlines about this every day? Or any of the other far more deadly things (traffic accidents, heart disease, suicide, etc.)?
(I'm not trolling, I honestly don't understand why this is different.)
Pandemics tend to follow a power-law distribution, like earthquakes, where you have small outbreaks here and there and then one comes along at 100X or 1000X the magnitude of anything ever seen before.
Even people who don't have a statistical understanding of power law vs. normal distribution usually have a good intuition of it, which is why most people worry about terrorism more than one would if they were just looking at just the total number of deaths vs. something car accidents or smoking.
What makes the coronavirus so terrifying is power-law component and the unknown unknowns. We still don't have a good handle on basic things like how exactly how contagious it is, how deadly it is, and how long it will take to run its course. Sure, it could end up being equivalent to a "bad flu", but it could also become a repeat of the 1918 Flu or worse.
I think this is a poor example, by any measure terrorism is an irrational concern for Americans, it's nothing like a pandemic that could actually affect the whole country.
To my eyes, COVID-19 looks like a single source that is spreading like wildfire, but, imagine this was a deliberate attack. Things spread fast enough on their own; consider how fast this would be spread if there was an organization doing it on purpose. What if this basically appeared in every major US city simultaneously?
This also adds to the economic impact. Its the clustering aspect of this that drives fear and uncertainty.
If I told you due to a newly discovered automotive manufacturing defect, 2% of cars would explode and kill the occupants, and 20% of drivers would be hospitalized in serious condition, that wouldn't be worthy of being on the front page of every newspaper?
The new coronavirus hasn't been accounted for yet by our society, and probably can't be accounted for given that we don't know how far it will spread and how many will die.
It is news that there's a new flu-like virus emerging, spreading, and having a relatively high rate of mortality.
The hype for this is part media sensationalism, part risk of it spreading everywhere.
Also, consider second order effects. What happens to hospitals when you get 20k cases of something in a month, vs 20k over a year.
If I die from smoking, it's probably because I smoked. (Yes, I know that some people can die from second-hand smoke, but it's by far the minority.) And if I die from smoking, it's from smoking for 10 or 50 years, not from one cigarette.
With Covid, though, I can die because someone at my work went the wrong place on vacation. And I can die in days, not in years.
And, Covid today kills fewer than smoking. That may not be true in a year, though. So part of the focus is because the potential is there for it to be an objectively bigger killer than smoking.
My answer now is the same as then: fear is about the future!
Covid-19 appears to be extremely virulent and at least as lethal if not several orders of magnitude more so than influenza.
The immediate reason why is Covid-19 is getting so much attention compared to flu in the news media is that it is new. However, some of the reason why it’s getting so much attention from public health officials is that
1) it’s not well understood yet, and the upper bounds currently on virulence and lethality are very high
2) it appears virulent enough that it could become endemic in humans, meaning that we could be dealing with annual epidemics like the flu.
That's a slight exaggeration. The number is in the hundreds of thousands, not millions.
Once you are past the "new and incredible deadly disease" headlines, the disease is news, because it was previously reported in the newspaper.
Contrast that with a well known disease like the flu, the initial headline is not there because a flu wave is not news, if it is not a once in a decade bad flu season. (And note, once in a decade bad is only known at the tail end of the flu season, not at the start.)
Coronavirus is on the news because we can't control it, we can't see it, it can spread without show of symptoms, it can be deadly... has no vaccine - thus the fear of a pandemic.
The thing with second hand smoke is your senses can warn you of this danger before it's a threat.
You can often see someone smoking before you can smell the smoke. You can also smell the smoke if you happen to not see them and then choose to react to the situation. You can either continue inhaling that smoke or walk about 30 feet in any direction away from the source to put yourself out of danger.
But with this virus, you don't have such luxuries. It's invisible, tasteless, odorless and can kill you after being exposed to it once. That's pretty much as scary as it gets.
No. You've already had several good answers on the difference between multiplicative & systemic risk vs additive risk. That's the reason that people are taking this outbreak seriously and why it is getting significant media coverage.
It's mostly isolated to 1 province in China. If you extrapolate those deaths world wide, you're talking 10s of millions of people dead if it goes pandemic.
A decent DIY rebreather for spray painting, sanding or house clearance should work.
I have stockpiled gloves and goggles along with a rebreather FFP3 level.
Total cost along with sanitization wipes and alcohol gel - £49
Piece of mind - priceless!
It potentially concerns the health of every person on the planet, so sticking it behind a paywall/accountwall seems like particularly...poor taste?
15% is the number of serious cases on average.
So once you have filled all your ICU, you cannot take any serious case anymore, so I would say the most apocalyptic case is that all hospitals are overwhelmed, and you cannot address any serious case, so 15% is still possible in the most horrific case. (But not the more likely if you quarantine everyone)
However in poor countries without any healthcare infrastructure we could have quite a number of serious case dying.
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Paywall everything except really important critical news which isn't an opinion piece and end up in a situation where 99% of your site is paywalled. So basically almost everything written isn't important enough to consider reading.
Why is it so hard to produce a vaccination for this virus? We have vaccinations targeting viruses all the time, isn’t it?
I don't have a better resource right now than Wikipedia, but I guess we could follow the links for more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic#Vaccines
But according to this page by 19 November 2009 the vaccine was distributed to 16 countries. I think it was first really noticed in April 2009.
Not making any claims about what to expect for COVID-19, just that they have fast tracked vaccines faster than 2 years in the recent past.
Even though the fatality rate in developed economies seems relatively low (on the order of 1%, perhaps lower), significant economic and logistical disruption appears inevitable in the short run, judging by the reaction of financial markets.
Please don't overreact -- there's no need to blow things out of proportion -- but don't be stupid and dismiss this as unnecessary fear-mongering either. It's best to be prepared, just in case.
For more details, see:
By the way, the OP's headline appears to be an exception to Betteridge's Law of Headlines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
But that wont necessarily the case if there's a corona pandemic.
2018-2019 flu season saw 50 million infected and 80,000 deaths in the United States.
For perspective, how many country will actually restrict travel or even undergone state wide lock down for an outbreak of regular flu??
The world is going to keep trusting them in the future, and of course we're going to keep thinking for ourselves as well.
They have to consider the reactions of the public and also the potential effects of declaring pandemics too often if it is not necessary.
I don't have many comparison points but a quick Google shows that we are still very far from the 2009 flu pandemic, for example.
Of course that may change...
New tests can't just be created by hospitals and labs out of thin air, and they can't be used without undergoing a lengthy bureaucratic approval process.
For a novel pathogen like this the tests are still in the early phases of being manufactured and approved, so most people who go in with symptoms just aren't going to be tested.
There's also a manpower issue that has to be taken in to account: if everyone with flu-like symptoms came in to get tested the hospitals and labs would be overwhelmed even if they had enough tests available and those tests were already approved. Many labs and hospitals are already close to being overwhelmed from seasonal flu.
So I really wouldn't consider official data to be very reliable at this point. We really need to wait and see.
Meanwhile, though, it would be prudent to err on the side of caution.
This one is at the tipping point. The situations in Italy and in Iran are potentially run-away if they can't draw a boundary around all the infections including the original spreader.
The World Health Organization no longer uses the classification pandemic, but the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak remains an international emergency that is likely to spread further, a spokesman said on Monday.
The past weeks have been filled with mostly sentiment-heavy reports either downplaying it as just a mere flu, with no masks worn even in places like Tokyo - or on the other end of the spectrum - overblown sensationalist videos of people dropping like flies.
We need more credible and helpful reports not just hearsay.
The vast majority of people who have died have been elderly and/or infirm. The death rate under 60 is well under 1%. If you’re young and healthy, this is a chest cold.
The biggest thing the media needs to do is to walk back as much of the panic and overreaction that has been circulating as possible.
(edit: thanks to HN’s
overbearing moderation system, I am unable to respond to replies. The censor-downvoting of factual information is apparently not a problem for HN mods, however.)
JoeAltmaier, to respond to your comment, unless you know hundreds of elderly people, about the same number of people you know will die as in the average flu season. Do you find yourself regularly worried about the flu? Perspective is important.
China's reporting on it absolutely can not be trusted, because:
- their health care system is overwhelmed, so they're not testing everyone who may have been infected (a lot of sick people don't even go to the hospitals because they know they'll get turned away)
- they seem to have run out of testing kits in many places
- their testing may be faulty anyway (which could account for the many reports of people testing positive then negative then positive again)
- their media is tightly controlled so there's no independent verification of what they tell us
- they've changed their reporting criteria multiple times
Outside of China there have been too few cases to know yet either, and the countries where it has spread seem to face some of the same issues as China (such as not testing enough people), so their reporting is likely to be skewed as well.
For the record? China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate. They have admitted it. They know that there are many mild cases that are not being counted.
Among other things, this means that the commonly cited fatality rates are a gross overestimate, and would be much lower if we could count all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.
They also seem to be underreporting the fatalities, by (for example) counting them as not caused by COVID-19 when they may well be.
Because both infection rates and fatalities are likely being underreported, and because we don't know by how much they are being underreported, it's premature to draw conclusions as to the severity of this disease.
Absolutely no reputable sources have advanced this theory, just people who are scaring each other on HN and reddit.
To summarize: undercounting mild cases is definitely happening. Undercounting of covid deaths is extremely unlikely to be happening. Therefore, we know that the current death rates are overestimates of the real values.
These are facts.
Otherwise probability estimates and guesses about what China is or isn't doing and why aren't facts... they're just that: guesses.
Thanks for sharing them, though. It's always nice to hear the reasons for another person's opinion.
Btw, influenza is also very lethal to infants. I have those in my family.
The corona virus increases the death rate from influenza 10,000X. By communicable disease, 100X?
Same as corona, no?
Edit: I'm not arguing it's less deadly than something else but in perspective I think 'mild' is an accurate description.