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The problem with Taleb is that he's incapable of recognizing any error, and he's not smart enough to do novel intellectual work. I recall pointing out some trivial mistake in the stat reasoning on some Facebook post of his, in a comment section full of fawning adulation by sycophants, and was immediately banned.

What really draws people to him is that controversial overconfidence, mostly from folks who don't understand the math anyway but are drawn to the personality. It's the standard confidence con frankly not much more sophisticated than Alex Jones. He mostly got lucky publishing a book about market crashes right as the market crashed, that's pretty much the extent of what his fans understand about the matter.




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