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> Sure, the world has a lot of people. But a civilization that by default, does not want to produce children? (As Huxley envisioned, and as I think will be the case in the coming decades) is headed for sure collapse.

Contraception and abortifacients have existed for millennia.

People in the developed world are choosing not have children because of costs. Having children in the developing world is an investment that is paid back in the form of free labor, dowries and someone to care for you when you're elderly.






The drive to develop them has existed for millennia, sure. But never as reliably or safely as they exist now. The fact that it is so accessible and there is very little stigma around it, is what will change our civilization and culture. The way Huxley depicts it in Brave New World, is the direction it is heading in. And we are at the forefront of that right now for the first time in human history.

"Contraception and abortifacients have existed for millennia."

Yes, but not reliably (for contraception) or safely (for abortifacients), and by their nature, 80% reliable contraception is of dubious utility.


> 80% reliable contraception is of dubious utility.

You realise the quoted reliability rates are per year, not per act? For example, the withdrawal method (available to everyone, for all time) has a reliability rate of 78% for typical use and 96% for perfect use. [1] Obviously, even at 78% reliability over a year, that is of a great deal of utility. 78% of the time a woman whose partner practises withdrawal will not get pregnant over the course of a year.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coitus_interruptus


It is observably a fact that the "sexual revolution" was a qualitative change and not just a quantitative change. Presumably something changed for that to happen. A student of history will note many, many times in the past that cultures would have been willing to make that change, but couldn't for some reason, so "it's just because we moderns are so uniquely awesome and wise and wonderful" doesn't strike me as a likely answer.

I suppose it could conceivably just be the ability to treat STDs, but I don't think that's enough, personally. YMMV. (Plus I'm not sure that the time works out correctly.)


Birth control pills have a 9% failure rate, and anyone who’s taken it will tell you that the experience is far from “without consequence.”

I didn't say "without consequence". I said "safe". And by "safe" I didn't mean "literally no-one ever will ever have a problem with it in any way", but something more like a normal meaning of the term.



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