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Technically Belarus and Russia form the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

Some speculate that Putin might want to turn this paper union into reality before his term ends and become president of the union. He would avoid neatly term limits for Russian president.

https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-rejects-putins-call-for-unific...






That article was 8 years ago.

Fast forward to 2019, recently the Belarus' ambassador to Russia said that the presidents of Belarus and Russia approved plans to establish a common government and parliament. [1]

Their plans seem to be progressing. December 8th should be some kind of proclamation about the state of the union.

[1] https://belsat.eu/en/news/lukashenka-putin-agree-on-single-p...


Pretty sure someone like Putin knows how to pull the strings without actually being the president of anything.

My guess: not going to happen. The vast majority of people in Belarus oppose a state union with Russia. Also the president (Lukaschenko) has nothing to gain from this. Surprisingly he has been very hesitant to give in to various Russian demands, openly criticizing Putin at world stages and in the media.

Since Russia is subsidizing Belarus, they can start tightening the screws on Lukaschenko politically any time they want.

Belarus is just one military exercise away from Russians taking over. Every time these countries have a big joint military exercise in Belarus there is possibility that Russian troops might not leave when the exercise is over.


>> there is possibility that Russian troops might not leave when the exercise is over.

Why they would do that? Unless you organize a pro-West revolution like in Ukraine. It is possible but making people dirty poor and desperate can take a decade like in the latter case.


That's what the article is about. Most big employers work for Russian market. If Russia stops buying - Belarus doesn't have deep pockets to sustain for years without trade. People most often live from paycheck to paycheck, so if suddenly a lot of them lose their jobs - escalation will be quite rapid.


This qualifies for Sci-Fi I think

> This qualifies for Sci-Fi I think

No it doesn't. It's by far the most likely outcome going forward.

"Putin’s Retirement Plan Depends on Belarus"

"To retain power, he is positioning himself as the leader of a closer union between Russia and its dependent neighbor."

https://outline.com/skkJq5

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-08/putin-...

That is by Leonid Bershidsky, one of the best columnists in the West re Russia. He essentially never strays into conspiracy theories or similar junk.


I am not sure what makes this art detective writer best authority on the situation. Looking at first link, aside of few obvious facts his conclusions read like delirium to me. Think I'll stick to my own opinion regarding the subject.



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