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So he still gets almost another full year in a UK jail. After that, where can he go?

Let's just say he's somehow successful at avoiding US extradition (unlikely), he's not going to be able to stay in the UK (unless he has dual citizenship or can somehow claim dual citizenship through a relative). He'd have to request asylum from another European nation that he can safety get to without flying.

Australia did little to help him in his situation, and it would be likely America could extradite him from there. There's a good chance it may never be safe for him to return home.




If he is released from UK jail he can hop onto a ferry and go to mainland EU. There he could travel to anywhere within the Shengen zone. I'm not sure about western countries, but Poland(as well as other eastern countries I believe) will not extradite anyone anywhere unless the crime is also considered a crime here, there is no possibility of death penalty, and there is strong evidence submitted that makes a conviction likely. By its definition treason against a country can be committed, by a citizen of that country. Assange is not a US citizen so he can't commit a crime of treason against US - end of story. US could try to get him on some other charges - espionage perhaps, but there would have to be strong evidence which allegedly is severely lacking. This is why it is very important for US to have Assange extradited from UK. UK has a "special" extradition deal with US that simplifies the procedure.


Poland, like all Eastern states, is desperate for US military assistance to stay around to deal with Russia, so they will just reply "how high?" when asked to jump by any American administration. This is particularly true now that their executive carries a certain disdain for the legislative branch and the rule of law.

The hard truth is that Assange won't be free nor safe anywhere in Europe. The tactical and propagandistic value of detaining and punishing him is so high, the US won't have any qualms black-opping him out of any EU country like they did with Abu Omar in Italy; and his freedom is not valued highly enough by any EU country to stop this from happening.

The only places where he could safely stay in the long term, at the moment, are Russia and Venezuela. Even Cuba has enough problems that they won't dare adding another one to the pile just out of spite; and that goes for most South-American states in general. China stands for everything he despises, so that's another hard no. Places like Japan or South Korea, so deeply embedded in the US military stance, are extremely unlikely too.

Assange must hope the current administration is replaced by someone so firebrand-y, s/he'd be willing to make a grand gesture of reconciliation. Snowden comes before him in the list though, and doesn't carry the baggage that Julian does, so chances of that are very low too.

Sadly, this is a round that the Galactic Empire has won. The only satisfaction Julian might get, will come from history books.


>Poland, like all Eastern states, is desperate for US military assistance to stay around to deal with Russia, so they will just reply "how high?" when asked to jump by any American administration. This is particularly true now that their executive carries a certain disdain for the legislative branch and the rule of law.

You are wrong on both points. Poland cooperated fully with EU's investigation of so called black sites (CIA "facilities") and the only thing that saved the people that used to rule Poland when those black sites were operational was lack of evidence of torture. How's that unconditional love for the American administration look in light of that? It is true that Poles want to have US troops on its territory(regardless of who currently rules the country), but let's not kid ourselves that US would "deal with Russia". All Us troops that ever were permanently stationed in Poland were always in the Western part. If Russia wanted to fuck with Poland they would sent their little green men into the North-East. Also it is common knowledge other NATO countries (perhaps including US) wouldn't respond to a Russian attack sooner than in 2 weeks so if Russia attacked Baltic countries Poland would have to respond on its own for first 2 weeks.

>This is particularly true now that their executive carries a certain disdain for the legislative branch and the rule of law.

The executive doesn't carry any disdain for the legislative branch. The main political party has absolute majority in the legislature, they have a president from same party and the government. Why would a government have any disdain for the legislative branch that is from the same party? You must be thinking about UK not Poland.

There is however pretty sizable disdain for the judiciary.This is not only on part of the ruling party, but also a huge majority of people. The rule of law in Poland is seen as being for everyone, but corrupt judges. There many examples of judges of all levels including high court judges committing crimes (from petty theft caught on CCTV, killing a pedestrian while drunk driving, being recorded on the phone while openly discussing bribes) and nothing happens to them. Their colleagues always rule in their favor.

At the same time there are situations like this where there was a huge property extortion scandal in Warsaw that had some of the city's government involved, politicians and corrupt judges which accepted faked power of attorney documents etc. In process of this thousands of people were evicted illegally. There was a parliament special commission established with members of all political parties that over years found evidence of those crimes. All members of that commission agreed regarding its findings of crimes despite their political differences. As part of their proceedings they ruled certain properties should be returned. One of the people affected was a daughter of a woman who was killed(burned alive) by members of the criminal organisation because she started to make information about their crimes public. The property she was living in was supposed to be returned to the city's ownership, but the city still governed by the same party that participated in the original criminality appealed. Then the case got to a judge whose dad was a known communist secret police member. The judge found some technicality based on which he could deny the property retrieval and when asked why he is committing such injustice he actually laughed in the face of the woman that is the daughter of the victim I mentioned before.

The biggest problem with judiciary in Poland is that, after communism ended no one kicked out judges that were corrupt. Germany had its Nuremburg after Hitler lost - this cleansed it somewhat. Polish judiciary is a direct descendant of communist apparatchiks. Even though many people involved are younger and perhaps their intentions weer good when they were joining, they developed in the organisation that didn't change one bit since communist times.

Until this is resolved there will be no true rule of law in Poland.


I wouldn't be so sure about Poland though. CIA secret prisons and politicians begging any US politician to just wave in their general direction as sign of recognition.

US has a lot power over UK and Sweden, what makes u think western Europe is different?


There are very different people in power in Poland these days and the voters are very different. The government wouldn't do it because they would be too afraid of loosing power over it.


> If he is released from UK jail he can hop onto a ferry and go to mainland EU. There he could travel to anywhere within the Shengen zone.

That relies on his Australian passport being valid and not being cancelled by a US-friendly Australian government - the relevant Minister has the right to cancel a passport if the person is subejct to a foreign arrest warrant. [1] It would likely also rely on the EU member state being convinced that Assange was only visiting the EU for 90 days and had the intention to leave, thus qualifying for the Schenghen Visa Waiver for Australians. The border officers in France (or wherever the ferry lands) can reject him at the border before he has a chance to travel elsewhere if they aren’t convinced he is legit.

[1]: https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2012C00135


There are no border officers checking people in almost all of the border crossings. If you look white (=> probably not an illegal immigrant) being checked is extremly unlikely even with manned borders.

He might want to wear a shawl or similar, but I don't think there will be a problem unless he is deliberately tracked and intercepted.


It’s been awhile since I caught a ferry to or from the UK but the trains to and from the continent have passport controls both sides and everyone is checked. I suspect his name would raise an alarm bell when the passport is scanned, though I really don’t remember what happened on the ferry.


Ah, that may be. I was referring more to the Schengen zone itself. Sorry, it's late.


The UK is not within the Schengen zone, and has passport checks for entry to and from the UK for that reason.


> will not extradite anyone [..]

will not easily extradite own citizens but less care is given for foreigners.


In practice, all EU countries have the dual criminality requirement in their legislation, like the one you mention for Poland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_criminality


The Kickass Torrents founder was arrested in Poland. There is also this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_site


If not extradited to the US, he would most likely end up being deported to his country of origin (Australia) directly.


I wouldn't imagine that he'll be offered a choice. He'll be shipped back to Aus. I can't see any reasonable defence against the deportation that would stand a chance in a UK court.


> So he still gets almost another full year in a UK jail.

My thought was the judge gave him a year to give him a chance to fight the extradition.

Without that - he possibly would have been snapped up pretty quickly.


why doesn't australia protect its citizens?

Apparently, "The Commonwealth will not extradite or deport a prisoner to another jurisdiction if they might face the death penalty"


Could you expand?

The UK is in the Commonwealth and has the same stricture. None of the extradition charges carry the death penalty.

So how is this relevant?


i got that from wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Australi...

> None of the extradition charges carry the death penalty.

I 'm not sure about that, the UN seems to be concerned:

https://www.ft.com/content/c3d35d24-82ec-11e9-b592-5fe435b57...




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