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SoftBank Next 30-Year Vision (2010) [pdf] (group.softbank)
66 points by argen 14 days ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 45 comments



Slide 43: Contention that Transistors are comparable to cells. This crazy talk is continued throughout the presentation.

Slide 44: Contends that Moore's law will continue for the next 300 years.

Slide 58: A fantastic butchering of Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

Slide 61: Unsubstantiated (probably wrong) claim life expectancy is going to linearly increase for the next 300 years.

Slide 73: Contention that storage scales at the same rate as number of transistors on a CPU and apparently conflates that with the power of a CPU.

Slide 82-85: Contention that we'll acheive VR in... 2040.

I mean this presentation is just laughably shit. It's like it's written by someone who has no interest or understanding of the complexity of the things they're meant to be talking about. You would have thought that people would see some of the absurd things that are just obviously rubbish and have it damage the credibility of the presentation, but apparently not.


> Slide 36: the wealthy live until about 39 years old, 300 years ago

No, that's just average life expectancy but that is driven down by a large infant mortality. In practice anybody who survived their infancy would pretty much live to 60 and beyond. Complete manipulation of the data, as usual.


> It's like it's written by someone who has no interest or understanding of the complexity of the things they're meant to be talking about.

Marketing today.


This is the company that manages $285,000,000,000 worth of assets.


more like mismanages, based on performance of their investments.


Actually it's amazing they don't lose even more money seeing how poorly designed their whole vision of the future is.


But capitalism is a meritocratic system


Also the first set of slides are about feelings of despair, What an odd opener for a presentation.


I'm impressed you actually made it that far. I stopped reading when they translated all the cause of death statistics into loneliness.


In Japan loneliness is a big issue. I remember reading how people 70+ commit crimes JUST to go to prison, so they have somebody to care for them. (https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-47033704)

People can die from loneliness/depression. They just give up and then their health deteriorates. Yes it's not the loneliness that kills you, it is some organ(s) failing, but the root cause is loneliness/giving up.


> how people 70+ commit crimes JUST to go to prison,

That BBC article is, like many things they write about Japan, completely ignorant and click-baity. So you better look up other sources if you want to find reliable information.


Slide 63: Telepathic communication (even with your dog)


Isn't Elon Musk pedalling that too? Nueronlink or whatever his latest meme-company is?

Even many technical people don't see through this flimflam as long as it's selling a fantasy they want to believe in.


Neuralink is reading thoughts using wires and stuff attached to ones head.

Thinking further, that can be actually extended to make it telepathic. That is, across a great distance and over the air with help of transmitter on one head and receiver on the other, thoughts can be transported magically.


On one slide, there's a mention that in 2300, computers will have 10^60 elements in them.

However, there's only 10^50 atoms on Earth.


It's even worse. That slide compares number of computer elements vs. number of cells in human brain. The graph starts at 1x the amount (CPU == brain), and ends 10^60x the amount.


You are forgetting that atoms mean nothing. It's about the hamiltonian, action, energy. There is no reason that you cannot use a shit ton of photons in flux with mirrored logic gates. You can pretty much create as many low frequency bosons you want... Remember relay lines as RAM? Electrons were used. Expensive compared to a lower energy particle like a photon. Photon relay lines :-)


500 bil operating income, won’t hire graphic designer to create a slideshow.



That's the website of a company with nothing to prove.


I like it. Its clear, you can quickly find information you are looking for.

I like it more than typical generic corporate website that futures, superlatives, and doesn't even explain what they do.


“The simplest way to view SoftBank is as an indebted holding company that owns a basket of assets, which are of mixed quality and often themselves indebted”.

For more context on Mr. Son and the fragility of SoftBank’s model, below recent Economist article is a good read

https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/hard-times-for...


Has anyone written about the earliest origins of Softbank's massive war chest?

You'd on occasion hear about Softbank in the late aughts but nothing worthy of note. And then suddenly just like that it was everywhere.

They hired Nikesh Arora who was let go just as swiftly as they hired him.

  As President & Chief Operating Officer of SoftBank Corp.
  Arora received over $200 million in compensation over the
  last two years" while at the head of Softbank's operations.
  This pay package made him world's highest paid executive.[1]
Is there a rhyme to any of the stuff they do? Or is it on the whims and fancies of Masayoshi Son?

Is there an exhaustive read somewhere, on all of this?

[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikesh_Arora#SoftBank_Corp.


They got lucky by investing in Alibaba and cashed out. Made 100bil that way and suddenly everyone thought Masa was a genius. Saudi princes started giving him free money and the rest is history.


300 year plan. No wonder they fell for WeWork.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21297789

Adam Neumann: “It’s important that one day, maybe in 100 years, maybe in 300 years, a great-great-granddaughter of mine will walk into that room and say, ‘Hey, you don’t know me; I actually control the place. The way you’re acting is not how we built it,'” he said."


I don't think they fell for We Work, they are the same as We Work. They're doing exactly the same thing We Work did - talk so abstractly and grandly about their vision that people miss the fact that nothing actually works. We Work was a great tool for Softbank to push the exact same con as We Work. You can't say CPUs with more transistors than atoms on the earth and then actually invest in a semi-conductor company.


Oh, all of Masa Son's "visionary" presentations are instant classics. Telepathic banking is my fav from his 300 year plan.


The scope of a 30 years vision I would be happy with would encompass the channeling of capital away from old fat clown bankers, toward its efficient distribution to young hungry minds.


Young hungry minds like the WeWork guy? It seems to me the money might be largely staying in the circus.


So at some point in such a future it'll be the old, beatup guys who want to take the money from the young, elite, smart people.

How about we just shoot for 'everyones lives are improved' instead of just passing the buck.


If this wasn't hosted by SoftBank, I would have thought its a parody created by someone with MS Paint and a poor grasp of English


Is this for real? Whoever made the slides was smoking some good stuff.


This looks like 133 startup memes rolled into a PDF.


Unfortunately the 30-year vision will take longer than the projected 30 years due to a slight miscalculation: the number of human brain cells is not 30B as it should for a 30year plan but is actually a bit larger. Number of neurons alone is 80+B therefore using the softbank-linear-interpolation-method, the targeted cloud-downloadable-happiness-rate of 30 EH (exa-happinesses) will not be realized in 30 years and takes least 80.


This deck doesn't seem real.


Looks like something I would've made in college with two hours left before the pitch


I would fire the intern who did this presentation.


Honestly Its so bad, I don't think any intern would dare to produce this as a final result.

On the other hand I have seen plenty of times when nobody had balls to tell higher up that what they produced is piece of crap


The director needs to take a break from Final Fantasy style RPGs.


"Zero speed network"

Tricky but doable.


Unplug the cable ? :)


Quick tip if hangs: Zoom out a lot and then scroll


Then why did they invest in WeWork [/s]


Jokes aside, anyone who solves the loneliness problem for remote workers (something that WeWork attempts to solve) will benefit itself and society a great deal.


“Think til our brains crush”




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