Hacker News new | comments | show | ask | jobs | submit login

I think the answer is a bit more simple than that. Where else should people put their money if not in high tech?

Industrials correlate to GDP, and GDP is projected to be flat. Same goes with consumer products and volatility is too high in media. If you have capital to put to work, Tech appears to have the highest risk/return profile.

Phrased differently: if you had $10mil, where would you put it?

are internet companies still considered high-tech? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_tech

Phrased differently: if you had $10mil, where would you put it?

25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, 25% cash?

(That's literally what the "Fail-Safe Investing" book boils down to. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail-Safe_Investing)

fail-safe meaning you're ready to lose up to 50% of your investments? cause quite a few things on that list are mutually exclusive...

The author argues that these four types of investments are very unlikely to go down at the same time - if one loses a lot, the other types grow.

    "	It might seem that a Permanent Portfolio
    containing these four contradictory investments would
    be neutralized: As one element rose, another would fall
    and nothing would be gained.
        	On a day-to-day basis, that can be true.
    But over broad periods of time, the winning investments
    add more value to the portfolio than the losing 
    investments take away."
He gives some numbers in the book, from 1970 till 2002 the portfolio lost money only in four years: 6.2% in 1981, 0.7% in 1990, 2.4% in 1994, and 1.0% in 2001. Three of these four years were followed by double-digit gains. The average gain was 9.5% per year.

70-02 period is pretty irrelevant in today's world though. how did such portfolio perform during Great Depression, which is more like what we face today?

Would it have been possible to raise $8m in VC funding for a glorified slideshow during the Great Depression?

I think the author wrote from personal experience, so he could be either too young or not even born yet during Greate Depression.

unfortunately investment advice written from personal experience is pretty useless if not harmful.

"GDP is projected to be flat."

This is utterly absurd and shows a complete misunderstanding of economic growth.

On the contrary, it makes sense. There were a huge influx of liquidities from the central banks around the world, and this money needs to be invested into something. Western GDP is pretty flat now and has been for a while if you don't take into account the various credit bubbles, and will probably stay so for the foreseeable future - as long as oil prices stay over 75$ a barrel at least, which may very well be forever.

Guidelines | FAQ | Support | API | Security | Lists | Bookmarklet | DMCA | Apply to YC | Contact