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Oil Companies Plan to Blow Past World Carbon Budget (theguardian.com)
28 points by 23throwaway23 on Oct 10, 2019 | hide | past | favorite | 6 comments

About a year ago I read an OPEC publication from 2006 “Oil in the 21st Century”. It was filled with optimism about our oil powered future. In one chapter they made surprisingly accurate production/consumption estimates through about 2021 and were only off by a few points because in 08-09 consumption dropped a little. Not once were electric cars mentioned.

What I ultimately absorbed from the book is that oil production and consumption is inextricably tied into the global economy and only aggressive, binding, legislation can separate it. Technology -baring some moonshot energy breakthrough that’s absurdly cheap and easy to adopt overnight— will not save us; the oil will keep flowing and more will flow each year.

>only aggressive, binding, legislation can separate it

That, or the eventual depletion of oil. My gamble is more on this than politics ever getting it done.

> depletion of oil

That’s true too, barring some 1970’s-like energy crisis also I think. Though, my understanding of peak oil arguments is that as drilling technology improves we can extract deeper oil that is not previously counted as extractable. So peak oil is this constantly shifting target 30-40 years away. We will run out, yes, but no time soon. Oil companies and national economies will continue to drive up production until then.

So,next century?

Most oil production goes to transportation. That is why it is absolutely essential that we switch to ev's as quickly as possible.

This is madness.

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