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>The part where anyone thinks it's a credible threat?

50% of people in Taiwan believe that China will invade if they declare independence.

So yes half of the country thinks it's a credible threat. [1, 2]

And only 6% think their situation has improved over this time last year. So "everyone's getting richer" certain isn't the perception in Taiwan.

1. Survey http://www.taiwansecurity.org/app/news.php?Sn=15761

2. Summary https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-pol...

But do you think it's likely that the PRC actually invades Taiwan?

I'm not taking a side on PRC vs ROC, maybe you're misunderstanding me. I just honestly thought it was taken for granted that that's pretty unlikely. All the talk about who's sovereign has been polite fiction for some time now.

(and, I'll admit I haven't done a ton of research on Taiwanese public opinion, but unless/until I do so, I'm going to take 'taiwansecurity.org' in English's takes with a grain of salt - Ahmed Chalabi sounded good too)

Doesn't really matter what I think. It matters what the people making the decision and the people voting for them think. If they think the threat is real, they are being coerced. That's all there is to it.

The survey was done by a Taiwanese University in cooperation with Duke University. If you want to dismiss it without doing any research then have at it.


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