FTA: "Tesla reports quarterly sales and does not break them out by country or region. Eventually, we get registration data from Europe, China (educated estimates at least), and Canada and can then make a more solid estimate of US sales for the quarter, as well as monthly sales estimates. However, it’s a bit early for all of that since we don’t have September numbers from most countries yet. Even our data-loving friend and contributor Jose Pontes of EV Volumes didn’t want to venture out too far on a limb and provide an early estimate that he might have to walk back. That said, looking at previous months’ data, September figures from the Netherlands and Norway, and deeper historical data, I feel comfortable estimating Model 3 sales between 40,000 and 50,000 in the US in the third quarter. For this report, I’ve settled on 43,000."
> While a 24% market share — 1 out of every 4 sales in this market — seems wild, the thing that blows the minds of many Tesla Model 3 owners is that anyone is still buying an Audi A4, Volvo S60, BMW 320i, Mercedes C300, etc.
It's worth noting that in the US, the SUV/crossover is king of sales.
As a quick basis of comparison, Acura TLX sales for the entirety of Q3 was 5,754 units (verified this figure), whereas Acura MDX sales for the month of August alone was 5,976 units.
Now play this comparison game with Lexus, Cadillac, BMW, etc. and you'll discover similar patterns.
How meaningful is it to compare Tesla Model 3 estimated US sales figures to a relatively small market segment that has literally been and continues to be cannibalized by SUV/crossover conversions year over year? IMHO, it's like focusing on salt in the bleeding wound while turning a blind eye to the frenzy of sharks encircling.
The only concern that I think is preventing growth (Other than production of course) - is the concern about long term reliability.
If you buy a camry or prius you know almost for a fact, that your going to drive 200k miles without a problem, and if there is one, its recognized as an engineering failure and the dealership fixes it for free - and fast.
But with Tesla, there are lots of rumors that the queue for getting stuff fixed it really long, and that after warranty expires, really expensive.
What I am really scared of is another "BMW" style reliability experience, which I would consider to be a catastrophic failure on the part of Tesla.
Edit - also accidents "caused" by "autopilot" software, and liability is still a big question.
Rich rebuilds did a great video on the out of warranty costs of older Teslas . The summary is: they're surprisingly expensive to run; major systems break much more frequently than I would expect of say... a Japanese car.
The newer cars may or may not be better.
Keep telling yourself that but it totally depends on what you get and who you are (i.e how you use it).
'09 "CVT" Altima owned by literally anybody. -> crap
'03 Accord owned by Grandma -> Perfectly fine car
'11 Tacoma owned by Joe the scrapper -> Made a one way trip over the scrap scale 5yr ago.
'11 Tacoma owned by upper middle class neighbor Steve who uses it to haul pine mulch for his garden and is generally easy on equipment -> Perfectly fine car.
It takes little more than a pulse to get your hands on (for example) a Nissan Altima or a Dodge Journey. They are solidly meh vehicles and (for the most part) bought in droves by people who's credit leaves them little other option. Time is not kind to vehicles under that kind of ownership. They get serviced when they have problems that impede their usefulness, maybe. Meanwhile, in an upscale gated community across town 4Runners plastered in honors student stickers will see easy use (food spills in the rear seats and smelly sports equipment are not particularly hard on vehicles) will see the kind of preventive maintenance the authors of German car service schedules lust over. When it comes to longevity the way a vehicle is treated matters more than anything else and over 20+yr the seemingly small difference between how different groups treat their cars will compound to be the dominant term in the equation.
We had no major repairs in this time other than the rollover. I had to replace the break pads but neither the suspension or emission controls system was replaced. Sometimes the hatchback stuck and we had frustrations with TPMS. The safety systems worked perfectly both times, I didn't even feel any pain in my accident, the back window broke so I had no trouble getting out.
My take is that Honda and Toyota are in a different class than Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru and such. Subaru has fanatic followers but I think has awful TCO.
Contrast that to a Hyundai I owned that needed a $200 repair every month at 90k.
I think the luxury sedan market is a tepid category, driven by people who get $90,000 of value from a $90,000 car. I still remember Audi for their self-driving incidents in the 1980s and find it hard not to see them as a bastion of euromediocrity. BMW and such are always in the shop, so is Cadlliac. I see so many Cadillacs in the ghetto and driven by my ethnic white relatives (polish, italian, etc.). Cadillac has been kept alive by WW2 survivors who will never buy a German car.
Unlike the others, Tesla stands out. My wife rode in a Tesla and she said 'that was a special car's and she hasn't said that about other cars.
That's exactly what Tesla tries to sell, "a special car". On all the thinks they are focused on long term reliability and repair ability are likely not their priorities, for now.
In a certain way I wouldn't be surprised if they would have adapted some of the "ship fast + PR, then working and then (maybe) good" development mentality which is common in the software world.
I.e. I wouldn't be surprised if they prioritize innovation (e.g. self driving) and performance/range over safety/durability/etc. as long as safety/durability/etc. are "good enough" to get away with it.
I have a long commute and needed to buy an economical car a little over 2 years ago. I live in a rural community and anticipated that it would be difficult to get a Tesla worked on. I pass multiple Chevy dealers on my way to work, so I bought a Cruze diesel. For the difference in up front cost, I can buy a lot of diesel -- at least enough for the first 200k miles and probably more. And if it breaks, I know I can get it serviced locally.
Teslas are really cool cars, but the math and potential ownership hassles still don't work for me.
- Oiled a squeaky driver side door
- Replaced tires
Meanwhile, some things got better:
- Tesla increased range by 5%.
- New audio CODECs improved sound.
- Driving safety features improved, even sans AP/EAP.
- Bunch of new toy features in the software.
Stuff I wouldn't expect on a $50,000 car:
- When rolled down, windows seem to not be secured within the door. Close the car door, and you can hear them bounce inside.
- Trunk lid doesn't have that 'solid' sound when closing like my 328i did.
Something of an interesting technical side effect:
- I neglected to rotate my tires (bad, I know), and, I did not replace the front tires when the rear were done (RWD). That meant that the front turned at a slightly higher RPM than the rear, cuz the rear had full tread, the front about 25%. When I took hard turns, it also meant the inside wheels turned slower than the outside wheels. Hence, at that point, it's possible all 4 wheels are turning at slightly different rates. That seems to invoke traction control, something I never (literally) saw in 33,000 miles up to that point.
For 8 years you're fine.
The Model 3 motors are designed for a million miles of service life.
For everything else in the car maintenance and longevity is going to be better than ICE cars due to the much simpler drivetrain, so the cost of replacing batteries and the battery lifespan is going to be the main factor in value of used fully electric cars.
That's why I'm not terribly optimistic on Tesla reliability. Powertrains rarely fail in the first place.
At a million mile service duty for battery and motors, the powertain is reaching human life expectancy (74 years) at average miles driven per year quoted above.
But if, say, the dash lights come on saying you need to take it in immediately because there is a problem with the battery, but when you take it in they can't find anything wrong with it, then they will still bill you a few hundred bucks for looking at it.
Also normal car companies that follow the law have third parties called mechanics that can order parts and get cars fixed.
Eh, their reliability is much worse than other brands, even luxury brands.
If it "works" it's great. But, once out of warranty it can be expensive and delayed before you can get your car fixed. On my S, I had to replace 3 door handles, drive unit, screen, TPS, passenger mirror was replaced, and a few other things. This was ~3 years of ownership and < 30k miles. Many of these things had a long delay before they could get fixed. I was in a loaner for over 3 weeks while they fixed the drive unit.
My father had an X that got bought back due to never being able to fix the rear door sensor. It would open a foot and freeze. He also had a handful of other issues. This was in less than a year of ownership.
My neighbor with the 3 got into an accident. It's ~6-8 months for them to fix their rear bumper. Additionally, one of the seatbelt adjusters and one of the AC vents rattle. So he stuck a piece of foam in there. His charging port has frozen and needed a manual release. And he says the screen sometimes doesn't come on. The nearest dealership is 100 miles away. He got an appointment, drove, got a loaner, drove home. They were 'Unable to reproduce' the rattles/screen issue. So he had to drive back and pick up his car with nothing getting fixed.
Additionally, the screen was working when they were there.
I would rather buy a car for more money that's engineered to the best possible attainable engineering perfection than one that is not.
Often, those more reliable cars are even cheaper and made in massive production. Given Teslas goal of accelerating the change to sustainable energy, it would be in their best interest to make the best possible and reliable car they could at the highest possible production numbers, instead of leaving a competitive advantage for toyota to take over reliable scalable production. Besides I would argue the purpose of the model 3 is a mass market vehicle that is really nice, and not just a niche "luxury" vehicle as is often implied.
Toyota would more often choose the latter, BMW the former.
Windows, door handles, air conditioning, bumpers, radar sensors, sun roofs, seat motors, wiper motors, door hinges.
A Tesla's battery pack is a hell of a lot more complex than a full, sheet-metal gas tank. The charging, balancing, and protection circuit is more complex than a filler neck and screw-on cap, etc.
What makes this particularly interesting is that the car was mostly charged using super chargers which accelerates battery degradation compared to regular home/Level 2 charging.
Or why would anyone want to replace their battery when they can just replace the top of the car?
Peoples’ needs and tastes in cars change overtime. I’d like to see a future where you retain the “skateboard” of the car but swap the cabin and skin of the exterior relatively inexpensively.
Anyway, if Tesla will be assuming all the mechanical/reliability risk/unknowns, does a lease work out better?
Nope, I had a Prius develop a problem where the entire dash display died at 105k, there was a previous recall for selected units of Prius for the same fault (not my S/N lot), but when it happened to me, I had to pay for a new one. You can see online where hackers fix the problem where it's a manufacturing fault with cold solder joints coming loose in the power circuitry. Complained to Toyota corporate about it, and they sent it back to the same dealership manager to rule against paying for it. Talked to other Prius owners that they did the same thing to. Makes me think twice about Toyota warranty coverage.
Tesloop's "eHawk", the 2015 Tesla Model S over 450,000 miles (724,000 km), which is one of the highest mileages globally. A Model 3 can easily surpass that since hey are not as complex as the S/X.
it's about total cost of ownership. All it takes is a couple of bad door handles (1500$ each) and a broken drive unit (10K$) and now your total cost 16K, just in repairs! if depreciation is roughly 15K over 10 years, then the cost of ownership doubles!
Model S (most expensive) door handles are $750 and the new revisions fixed this issue (2016+ model years). Or if you're adventurous you can DIY it and buy a replacement part/rebuild kit for $175:
Drive units are about ~$3-5K based on anecdotes from invoices by actual owners. This was in 2018, they are much cheaper now.
As, for the drive unit, I thought it used to be 10K maybe it's a bit lower now
Is that stated explicitly in the warranty or just marketed by 3rd parties (i.e. You), so that the seller cannot be held accountable?
Edit: wow the downvotes. You guys fall for media attack campaigns too easily. You can see the talking points (Look at the forums!!!!, This X person reported Y!) Even though we all know the loudest people go to the forums to complain, that's not an accurate representation of Tesla owners. And it's not even a valid complaint, it's a complaint of complaints. If you have a reason why it's unreliable, post it, don't point somewhere else or use a talking point.
You guys have fell for the car industry and oil/gas industry's propaganda. You guys are now defending them and attacking an electric car company trying to dethrone them for the good of humanity.
Where are your sources that the less complicated drivetrain is more unreliable than an ICE drivetrain? Where are you sources the battery is not in general reaching its mileage rating?
Propaganda, pure and simple. Those articles are paid for by the oil/gas/automobile companies.
Can you point to one major issue that they cover? No, they are all written with a negative tone, highlighting small things and blowing them into a big deal.
> from scratched bumpers to moisture trapped behind the headlights -- the order of the remaining 85 Model 3s was called off.
Big deal, and the 85 were supposedly called off for other reasons. Depends who you believe.
> “I’m still thrilled by the car, because it’s just so much better than anything I’ve driven before, but the quality of the service and some technical parts are seriously worrying,” Rouven Volk, who said by email that he ordered his Model 3 in February and was slated to take delivery less than a month later.
Fair enough, but the first part is important. Also, just one data point. All these articles just cover a few people. There is no big study to indicate reliability. And the overall reports indicate Tesla owners love their cars.
Imagine owning a car which has a fender bent into the tire and no parts supplier or body shop is prevented to work on it. Your warranty for free rental car expires at thirty days, so now you sit with a $50,000 decorative statue and paying for a rental car out of pocket? These things can happen and do happen with Tesla and can't with almost any other vehicle.
Maybe Tesla will fix the issues, but I'm not going to pay that much for a car I can't have fixed.
> In addition to Tesla Body Repair Centers, we’ve partnered with the world’s best body shops to form the ever-growing Tesla-Approved Body Shop Network. We demand the highest standards from our Tesla-Approved Body Shop Network, through rigorous training and assessments of all the technicians that will work on your car. To schedule an appointment, please contact the body shop directly.
I've entered my address and I found a dozen near me. And I live in the middle of nowhere.
Looks like they released this program 2 years ago. Seems they are addressing the problem.
Pretty impressive, IMO.
I really hate touch screens and have opted personally for a similarly expensive car with lots of switches and dials that I don't have to look at to make sure I'm on the right one. (Mini Clubman, with basically every option, literally months before they added a touchscreen entertainment system)
I'm ok with a more spartan interior as driving is just so much more enjoyable. The regenerative breaking takes some real getting used to, but once you've gotten used to it and you do 1 pedal highway driving (assuming you're not using auto-pilot) it is just so much less work. Most of the real fanciness in the Tesla is around making driving more enjoyable. I got the Model 3 AWD LR (not the performance model) and know I can out accelerate virtually ever other non-Tesla on the road. If someone wants to be a jerk and cut me off it is pretty much impossible unless they're in a super car (or another Tesla). Not being a gear head or car fanatic it just gives me more options when driving. That is worth a simpler interior. I was also fine with the crappy interior of my 2011 Ford Fiesta however, so we have different tastes.
The Porsche Taycan is the first electric car that seems to start to compete with a Tesla. The soon to be released Volkswagen ID.3 also looks like a pretty solid Model 3 competitor. The future holds a lot of options in this space, so you don't have to drive a Tesla to enjoy the all torque all the time driving of an electric drivetrain.
Why such an adversarial mentality? Why not just let people change lanes if there's enough room in front of you?
I live in Colorado; my highway driving includes driving 400-500 miles over mountain passes sometimes in the winter down to parts of New Mexico. I have all-wheel and an 8-speed sport transmission; so the Mini eats mountains for breakfast, doesn't drink its fuel supply extra fast when it's 0F in the snow over mountain passes, and doesn't need me to spend time recharging somewhere in the unpleasant cold. Highway speeds (85mph), I can go 400+ miles before refueling.
You can watch Netflix while charging in the warmth of your car if you choose (It is called Theater Mode). If Elon is to be believed, and you should always take what he says with a grain of salt, Tesla will have 400 mile range vehicles by the end of next year. The use cases Tesla are bad for are dwindling quite quickly.
The all time record holder of the Pikes Peak hill climb is an EV.
Maybe you don't owe the other commenter better, but you owe this community better.
I had the experience of sitting in a few other cars at the pricepoint (BMW 3 series, and a Mercedes C class), and the infotainment systems in there were way behind. Mercedes uses a touchpad along with a touchscreen for navigation, while the BMW uses a dial along with the touchscreen. I much preferred the Tesla touchscreen only to their weird physical/virtual button hybrid systems.
I have a Bmw with both, and I never use a touchscreen, using the idrive joystick is so much easier than reaching for a touchscreen
But unfortunately, it looks like their newer models are now adding a touchscreen :(
For Porsche money the Model S should be on point. All the above critiques would be fine on a Model 3. I hope the recent Model S’s have improved.
Of course I don't want companies innovating on design at the expense of safety but it does appear that Tesla has a fairly well thought out set of physical controls. Is it enough? Good question.
This is the kind of content I'm looking for lol :)
If I had the money, and needed a car, I would give it serious consideration.
Alas, I only buy used cars and The most I’ve spent is 17k.
I’ll pony up more cash next time just to be sure I have some of the driver aids/safety features that might help me from rear ending someone because I glanced at the gas gauge in stop and go traffic.
Reminds me of comparing this year's iPhone to a no name Android.
Op, did you realize you did this?
I jokingly have been comparing the Model 3 to an A10 Warthog. The A10 Warthog (famously) is literally a plane built around a really big gun. The gun is the primary focus of A10 designers and it shows. When it comes to a Tesla, it is a computer with amazing batteries that happens to live in a car. It isn't like any existing car on the market, because primarily, it is a computer. This is really exciting, and very different.
Yes, software is limited. So are people, so I choose to combine both systems for safety. I use autopilot, but my hands stick on the wheel. I spend much more time on total awareness as opposed to just what is immediately in front of me.
Compare the Tesla's system to the current flawed system, not a utopian system where people don't make any mistakes.
They both have their risks so it's whatever you're comfortable with. I ride a motorcycle in los angeles and own a tesla model 3 so I have a pretty good feel for how drivers behave and I've been equally pissed off at both drivers. haha.
I will say that the Model 3 is definitely an amazing car by what it does already. Last night I had it pick me up in front of my grocery store and I loaded the trunk and took off. It honestly makes me giddy what it can do now considering the flaws.
Any car past the year 2000 probably has a computer in it, and virtually all modern cars have them. Your 2013 truck or 2016 sedan are all using computers to balance gas, traction, gear shifting, and other critical functions.
hum pretty sure the value of your Tesla will drop to zero if it can’t drive anymore. What are you talking about?
My Model 3 didn't have an alarm system or dashcam when I purchased it in November of 2018. I got that later as an OTA update. How many vehicles can do things like that even today in 2019? Precious few that aren't Teslas, mainly due to dealer network legalese. They wanted us to bring our Ford Fiesta into the dealer for them to load a new version of Sync on it via a thumbdrive. Such silliness.
While the electronics are good, they are somewhat limited, no "birds eye view" for example, and the interior fit and finish are not equivalent to 50K cars, IMO at least.
However, people look at the sticker price, and get shocked by what it costs, and don't think about the TCO.
Just to be clear, I am not saying that this is a cheap car, far from it, but it is cheaper to own than the sticker price would suggest.
Disclaimer: I _do_ have a Tesla. They are great cars, but they are not sticker price comparable to other luxury cars, at least not in fit and finish. Driving on the other hand…
My stepfather asked "So Jeff, how many gears does this have?" right as I pushed the accelerator to the floor. The glasses ontop of his head flew off and he said a few choice words. There are no gears in a Tesla and it is instant torque. The interior in both the Audi and Mercedes were nicer no doubt, but you I care about the driving more than the interior. The Model 3's interior isn't terrible, but isn't luxury by any stretch.
Does that make sense?
The numbers would indicate that Dodge makes several points of comparison though making such a comparison would certainly get everyone to recoil in horror as though you brought up Bud Light in a discussion of micro-brews.
In any case, nobody ever won internet points (or the approval of snooty coworkers and neighbors) by driving a Dodge.
The best part? it only cost me $20-30 a month in energy cost.
How many times have you drove a car at max speed really? You'd be lying if you tell me all the time. Unless you track it every weekend.
What about the Model 3 swayed your opinion enough to spend 2-3x more on a car than you previously had? I love that Tesla has finally brought "cool" electric cars to the market that don't look like they were purposefully designed be a science experiment (Honda Insight, older Priuses, etc...). However, as a long time auto enthusiast I can't help but wonder how many people who share your sentiment of "once you drive it you'll need it" would end up in a different car if they had also test driven other similarly priced performance cars like the M3/M4, RS3 and C63 AMG.
I find it interesting that a tech company has been able to convince people to spend significantly more on a car than they ever would have, and the only two reasons I can come up with are the convenience of charging at home and the big screen. I'm not suggesting Tesla makes sub-par products by any means, only that exciting cars packed with features have been around forever. Many driver's assists like auto pilot and self-parking that people rave about have been offered by Mercedes and BMW for longer than Tesla has even existed, so I don't think that's it, but of course people could be unaware of those features. I'm excited to see what other boundaries Tesla pushes, because every other manufacturer has no option but to play keep up now.
TL;DNR: I buy in to self driving vehicles being good for humanity as well as electric vehicles being good for humanity. I purchased a Tesla to help make the future Elon opines about into closer to reality (even after the Elon distortion field is removed).
Tesla is not remotely unique in having a lot of nice driver assist functionality, but the stuff they have does a great job to reduce driver fatigue. It is the little stuff, like the wheel vibrating when the autopilot sensor suite notice you're drifting off into another lane (either side).
It is the radar that bounces under the car in front of me to the car in front of it and back. The tesla alerts me that the car in front of the car in front of me (via the radar) just slammed on their brakes. I slow down and about a 1/2 second later, the car in front of me slows down. This has prevented me from rear ending people 3x now.
Some people see autopilot as a party trick, but I see it as something that enhances me as a driver, but doesn't replace me. I'm able to get a better situational awareness of what is going on around me while not really worrying about the accelerator / brake pedal or turning the steering wheel. Much like when I was a UAV (drone) pilot in the Army, I've developed an "instrument scan" while on autopilot and part of my scan involves checking cars to my sides and behind me. I'm literally more aware of the road because of autopilot and end up after long drives more refreshed and less exhausted. The only thing that I'm not fully a fan of (yet) is the auto lane changes. Sometimes it gets spooked by shadows and will swerve back into the lane you started from. This seems to have stopped since the major V10 software update a few weeks ago, but traditionally has been a pain point.
Things like Caroke and Theater Mode (netflix mainly) are huge hits with my daughter and keeping the kids happy is a huge part of making a drive enjoyable or utterly miserable.
As I've also said elsewhere, the OTA updates are a real game changer. When I first purchased my Model 3 AWD LR, it didn't have a Dashcam or an Alarm system. I setup a gopro for a dashcam and was considering an aftermarket alarm system. After someone tweeted Elon and asked, he directed his engineers to create TeslaCam, which is an always on dashcam using the autopilot cameras (of which there are 8 I believe). Now if there is something bad, I can push a little icon and the last 10 minutes of footage will be permanently saved (it deletes old clips in a rolling fashion to keep free space on the disk). Then Sentry mode was rolled out and suddenly, I've got a free vehicle alarm system which will send notifications to my phone when it is triggered. This is great! The features of the vehicle continued to increase. It is kind of a pain in the butt to crack the windows because after you close the door the car rolls all of the windows up. The new V10 software has a "vent" mode where it will open all of the windows a crack with 1 push of a button in the app (this can also be done remotely if you so choose) and ditto to roll the windows up remotely. Then there was the time consumer reports said the Model 3 had poor braking distance and showed it. About two days later, a software update was released and Elon admitted the algorithm driving the braking wasn't ideal so they'd fixed it. Consumer reports re-tested and agreed the problem they brought up was indeed fixed. How many cars get safer after you purchase them? This really is the future.
There are lots of reasons to love a Tesla, believing in the future Elon is attempting to build is one of my bigger ones. It isn't the only one however :)
Hopefully that helps answer your question?
The Model 3 is 20 inches longer, 3 inches wider, but 6 inches shorter. It looks like it has more comfortable passenger space, but comparable cargo space.
Overall, the Bolt is not that much smaller on the inside so I don't believe it's accurate to say that it's really really tiny compared to the Model 3.
Standing next to them makes the difference in dimensions readily apparent. The Bolt just looks tiny. My current car is an RX-8 with rear suicide doors because of its limited space. Even it looks larger than a Bolt (probably because it is 1 foot longer than the Bolt).
Lack of service for me. Unless you live in an urban center, most independent dealers can't afford the service center upgrades required to service EVs, especially if they only sell a handful a year.
source: talked to my local, small-town GM dealer.
I have no interest in owning a car that tracks everything I do and is the control of someone else.
I don't know if they had "something wrong" when initially purchased- they were great cars already, but in the last year or so Model 3s have had braking distance improved, a 4-camera dashcam added, a security sentry mode added, games added w controller support, a Netflix/YouTube/hulu theater, new music steaming (Spotify) on top of existing slacker, two types of self-summoning, new remote controls via the phone app, improved range, traffic visualizations, energy usage visualizations, new crash avoidance systems, faster supercharging, better cold weather improvements, a refreshed/refined ui, improved navigation, better driver personalization, fun Easter eggs, camping mode, better acceleration, new 3d climate control visualizations, much better lane keeping & "drive on nav" with auto lane changes, dog safety mode, track mode, and many more I'm forgetting.
Known to be coming in the next major versions- everything from user-selectable horn and pedestrian safety sounds ti improved "come to me" summoning and suggestions keep coming.
All these incremental improvements are delivered OTA.
Was there something wrong before? The longer braking distance might have required a trip to the dealership to fix on a traditional car, but otherwise, not really.
Is there any doubt these cars are improving significantly after purchase in both large and small ways?
I like the fact that GM is taking a more conservative approach to what components of the car have internet connectivity compared to Tesla, and that was a big factor in me choosing the Bolt over waiting for the Model 3. I also don't have any expectation for feature updates over the life of the car. But that does not excuse them for not providing security updates for the portions that do have internet connectivity.
That iconic American brand that's been in business for over a century, producing money for shareholders, jobs for 10s of thousands and tax dollars to benefit every American.
Plenty of other useless or actively harmful products also match that description. Philip Morris death sticks. Kellogg's sugar cereals. NFL concussion factory.
The point of the GP's comment is to answer the question of "why don't more people buy a Chevy Bolt". Because for a lot of people the Chevy brand is a negative, not a positive.
Tesla is a startup company and can be a bit difficult to deal with but I will repeat what John Carmac said about his Tesla , "It's my happiness machine".
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua-ikbZVofc [VIDEO]
disclaimer I am pro tesla.
The overall rating is also held by BMW 3 Series, Lexus ES 350, and Mercedes-Benz C-Class (which all rated better in child seat anchors ease of use)...and that's just in the midsize luxury cars category.
You only mentioned IIHS but the Model 3 has been consistent globally on safety test results (Cherry picking?).. Along with NHSTA and IIS in the U.S.
While BMW's crash avoidance systems also failed miserably while the Model 3 aced it the test because of the superior auto emergency braking:
Tesla Model 3 awarded 5-star ANCAP safety rating in Australia
Model 3 earns 5-Star Safety Rating from Euro NCAP | Tesla
The parent made a false assertion (the claim of "highest saftey (sic) rating of any car") while specifically citing IIHS ratings. I corrected this assertion with fact by citing a higher-level IIHS reference. That's not cherry picking...that's proper constraint.
In contrast, you'll have to do a lot better than actual cherry-picked Twitter garbage, blog spam, and self-referencing Telsa press releases.
> Along with NHSTA and IIS in the U.S.
Remind us who IIS is again??
I'll be happy to digest any independent NHTSA OVSC test reports on the subject that you point us towards...coincidentally, I've been shits-and-grins analyzing a bunch of FMVSS 106 and 218 test reports in preparation for next year's racing season, so I suspect they won't put me to sleep...to be sure, not that I really care for Tesla.
TL;DR the Model 3 didn't perform as well with respect to driver-side door hinge pillar intrusion and door sill buckling, contributing to "moderate risk of injury to the left lower leg".
General remarks for Mercedes-Benz C-Class and Lexus ES 350:
> The dummy's position in relation to the door frame, steering wheel, and instrument panel after the crash test indicates that the driver's survival space was maintained well.
> The driver's space was maintained well in both tests, and risk of injuries to the dummy's legs and feet was low.
...as opposed to Tesla Model 3:
> The dummy's position in relation to the door frame, steering wheel, and instrument panel after the crash test indicates that the driver's overall survival space was maintained well, despite moderate intrusion of the lower part of the door hinge pillar and buckling of the door sill.
> Although intrusion overall into the driver's space was minimal, door hinge pillar intrusion contributed to a moderate risk of injury to the left lower leg.
Yes, I own TSLA and multiple Teslas.
If I had to pay full MSRP I would have preferred a Tesla (or Bolt) and go full EV rather than PHEV! I do see more and more Telsas on the road, more than Priuses, Leafs, or any other EV/hybrid.
• lower maintenance costs than ICE vehicles
• higher insurance costs than ICE vehicles
• possibility of long delays for repairs (moreso than other EVs)
• possibility of company going out of business, and impact on software maintenance, software updates, and parts availability (also moreso than other EVs)
June of last year, I finally got a used 70D Model S from Tesla since it comes with 4yrs/50K mile warranty for $47K to minimize the risk. Delivery experience was not the best but Tesla made it right.
I would occasionally drive my wife's MB SUV and just couldn't get over how dated everything felt. Decided to trade that SUV in for a Model X and now we are an all Tesla household (never would have imagined this). I traded in the Model S for a Model 3 last July since it's more efficient/fun commuter car and I grin every time I get in it and often find excuses to drive it. The product is that good. It changed the whole driving experience for me.
Maintenance so far has just been tires and washer fluid. Lower insurance cost through USAA. Zero issues with repair even though the closest service center is 200+ miles way in Salt Lake City.
Service is handled by two Mobile Service techs in our area because of the interestingly fast adoption here in the Boise, Idaho area... I schedule via the app they call within 24hrs to confirm and they show up either at our driveway or work parking lot to fix issues.
If they need it longer, they also drop off a loaner. The pundits have been saying that Tesla will never make it or will go out of business since 2009. Yet here we are in 2019 and YoY growth and sales are still growing. Amazon, Apple or Google will quickly snatch up Tesla if it ever get's in peril.
My experience has been eloquently put by Chamath Palihapitiya on this video:
Excluding the obvious that Model 3 is smaller and weighs less less, the drive units on the Model S/X are conventional induction motors.
The dual-motor versions of the Model 3 have an induction motor in the front and a permanent magnet synchronous reluctance motor (PMSRM) in the back making it much more efficient:
The new Model S/X "Raven" updates were able to leverage this new (PMSRM) drive unit tech which also improved their efficiency up to a record 370miles:
The Model 3 is more fun to drive since it's more nimble. Though the ride quality and cabin noise on the S/X is better. The S feels like a boat, while Model X feels like a tank. The Model 3 has improved battery cooling and "track mode" which you can't do on the S/X since both will overheat (2012 design?).
Lastly, the Model 3 is also the only Tesla that can take advantage of the maximum rate of 250kW that was introduced on the V3 superchargers which can charge up to a rate of 1K mile an hour.
> lower maintenance costs than ICE vehicles
I researched it prior and it seems people pay very little for maintenance. I've personally logged 13k mi in 10 months and literally had no maintenance expenses.
> higher insurance costs than ICE vehicles
There are so many variables to insurance pricing. Not to mention that you can bargain. I honestly have a hard time comparing. My rate is around 600 per 6 months.
> possibility of long delays for repairs (moreso than other EVs)
I've heard about wait times for particular parts. I haven't had an issue myself. I can't compare to other EVs, since I haven't owned others.
> possibility of company going out of business, and impact on software maintenance, software updates, and parts availability (also moreso than other EVs)
This seems extremely unlikely at this point. Should it happen, the car will still charge and drive just fine.
My question about long delays for repairs was regarding collision repairs, about which I've heard horror stories of months-long delays. I've never heard anything like that for vehicles made by big manufacturers.
Regarding Tesla going out of business, I wonder if they're more likely to get a bail-out if needed, since so many powerful/wealthy people drive their vehicles. Nonetheless, I worry about having a car that is so dependent upon software, and which currently can't really be maintained by anyone other than Tesla. Presumably Tesla would open up their maintenance protocols so other people could keep the cars on the road, and a cottage industry would pop up to maintain the vehicles.
... The Model 3 ranks 50th or so.
Is it just the stock is considered by some people to be simply overpriced, or is Tesla the company in danger of going bankrupt? I'd like to get a Tesla, but I worry about the company going under and being left with a car that has no resale value or ability to be maintained.
Not immediate danger, but Tesla has never made a yearly profit in this entire decade. The two profitable quarters (Q3 2018 / Q4 2018) were completely wiped out by awful performance in Q1 2019.
If things keep going the way they're going, I'd estimate Tesla only has maybe till 2022 or 2023. That's enough time to turn the company around, but you can only lose billions-of-dollars / year for so long before the whole shebang collapses.
My 2022 estimate is based on two things:
1. December 2020 is SolarCity's last bond. Most likely, Musk will find a way to avoid paying for the bond IMO (probably rolling off SolarCity as a subsidiary or something), limiting the damage to Tesla.
2. March 2021 is the next major bond repayment, initially taken out for the Nevada Gigafactory. Musk is pretty good about raising money, but after shenanigans with Dec 2020, I'm not sure if the market will be so forgiving. Banks would rather him succeed however, so I expect a kind of "One last chance" here.
3. March 2022 is the next major bond repayment.
4. If Tesla survives past 2022, they have over a full year before 2024 and 2025 bond repayments kick in again.
Tesla's next major tests are about whether or not they can pay back the 2021 / 2022 bonds. Well, not necessarily "pay back", but they should be making a profit and not just "borrowing more money to pay off older bonds". If the market realizes that Tesla is exponentially losing money here, they'll be in a bad spot.
That gives all of 2020 for Tesla to turn around. The Model 3 has proven unprofitable in the USA, the only hope is Chinese sales through the $5 Billion Gigafactory 3. Not exactly a bet I want to take (if the technology is unprofitable in the USA, why would it be more profitable if you made a similar factory in China?? Musk should have focused on profitability in Nevada before expanding...
The above 10k reports a $976 Million loss for 2018. If you want to "Ctrl-F" something, try "Net Loss", which should bring you to the $976 Million loss in the financial sheets. Or search for "(976,091)", which is the precise number in that 10k for their Net Loss.
The 10Q reports (quarterly) for 2019 aren't much better.
Q1 2019 reports a $702 Million loss (in ONE quarter!!): https://ir.tesla.com/node/19771/html
Q2 2019 reports a $389 Million loss: https://ir.tesla.com/node/20111/html
H1 2019 has lost $1.09 Billion loss, and there's 2 quarters left in this year. Even if Q3 2019 ends up profitable (and I find that unlikely), there's basically no chance for 2019 to be profitable either.
Tesla has bet it all (again) on Shanghai Gigafactory 3. The Model 3 rollout to the USA has been wildly unprofitable, Tesla needs to sell significantly more vehicles at significantly higher prices.
Gigafactory Shanghai will arguably help, but that's another $5 Billion bet, and Gigafactory 1 isn't even paid off yet. (Gigafactory 1 was paid with debt due 2019 and 2022. The 2019 debt was rolled over to 2014, and 2022 isn't looking too hot IMO).
Tesla has time to turn things around before 2022. Although, maybe Musk can pull a Musk again and convince everybody that the company is worthwhile and all the bondholders offer another $Billion loan. Clearly it worked for rolling over the 2019 debt, but I have my doubts that it will keep working.
EDIT: Elon Musk likes to confuse the issue by talking about "Gross Profits". Yes, Tesla has a "gross profit", but most people don't actually know what that means. When people talk about "profits / loss", they typically mean "net profit".
The TL;DR is that financial sheets talk about 4 kinds of money: Revenue, Gross, Operating, and finally Net. "Net" is the bottom line, while "Revenue" is every dollar that ever came into the company (usually sales).
Gross (aka "Gross Profits") subtracts "COGS", cost of goods sold. Operating (aka: Operating Profits or EBITDA) subtracts marketing / sales / other costs, and finally "Net" subtracts out debt and taxes.
So Musk confuses the issue because he talks "Gross Profits" when most CEOs really talk about "Net Profits".
The three sheets of importance are:
1. Balance sheets -- Assets vs Liabilities. A listing of all of the debt, factories, cash, etc. etc. and an estimated dollar value on everything. Add everything together, and you have the rough value of the company, the so called "Equity".
2. Income Statement -- Calculates Profits (or in this case, a loss), which is roughly a "Change in Balance Sheets". "Net Profits" means balance sheets are more towards +Assets, while "Net loss" is balance sheet had more +Liabilities.
3. Cash Flow -- How much money is in the bank. Start with the Income Statement and "reverses" the calculation to get to actual $$ flowing in or out of their bank.
When a business-folk says "profits", they talk about #2 being positive. But when colloquial people mean "profits", they typically mean #3. Understanding the difference between colloquial "Profits" (which is really Cash Flow) vs "Business profits" requires a good bit of study.
If Tesla pays for a $5 Billion factory (ex: Gigafactory Shanghai), you'll have -$5 Billion Cash Flow, but $0 in income. Because -$5 Billion cash becomes +$5 Billion factory in the asset sheets.
Tesla's 2019 Bonds were initially 0.25%. They were rolled over into 2.00% bonds due 2024. Furthermore, Tesla paid hundreds-of-millions of dollars for this opportunity. I've seen estimates suggest that the "real" price (once the hundreds-of-millions are factored in) suggests a "real price" of ~8% on the 2024 bonds. (That is, pretending that the hundreds-of-millions Tesla paid for the opportunity to borrow money is instead "part of the bond", and suddenly the 2% bond is really closer to a traditional 8% bond).
Look: I get it. They didn't make money from the Nevada Gigafactory and needed the cash severely to fund Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai.
I'm just saying that when all of this debt hits them come 2022 (let alone the 2024 "recycled" debt to pay off 2019) Tesla will be in a much worse position.
>There are unique challenges that come with working on these cars. You might have to rebuild a circuit board one day, and fabricate a new hood the next day. Actually, if any body parts are damaged, you'll have to fabricate them. Tesla doesn't sell parts to anyone, so Medlock has taken to fashioning new panels out of carbon fiber himself.
If Tesla is acquired I would imagine it would be for IP; I could easily see the brand going away with the billions of debt.
That said, considering how good Tesla isn't at supplying parts to their own shops (let alone the aftermarket) having Dorman (or whoever, but this would be a very Dorman thing to do) acquire all the body dies at some post-bankruptcy liquidation sale and start cranking them out from a factory in China could very well wind up being better for parts availability than the current situation.
The problem isn't the "stock". It's the financials of the company that are an issue.
If you think they'll have half a million self-driving, appreciating robo-taxis on the road next year, it's probably cheap. I happen to think that ain't gonna happen.
>is Tesla the company in danger of going bankrupt?
16 years of losses so far. But they've been able to continue to find financing for now. That (We)works until it doesn't.
I own a M3 and I do think it's really an underpriced car for what it offers. With the new v10 update I've spent a few nights watching Netflix in my garage and it's such a great experience - who needs a theater room in the house? Tesla can (and should) raise the prices of the M3 by 10% and I believe they'll still be able to sell.
I think it’s cool that Tesla is finding new ways of getting value out of their cars, but to answer your question: Many people would prefer a proper theater or music experience. Also, while Tesla’s sound quality is among the best out there for cars, no car audio can hold a candle to the music (or theater) sound quality you can get from large high-quality speakers (far too large to fit in any car) in a well-damped room (with acoustic treatments if necessary, e.g. if you have hard floors or too many windows).
You could install the best speakers in the world in a car, but it would still sound worse than in an average house due to all the acoustically reflective surfaces at many angles (e.g. glass) and oddly shaped compartment which distorts the sound in ways that cannot be perfectly corrected even with DSP.
I don't think profit will be the focus for a while as they keep investing in new tech, new factories, new product lines. All of those things will increase the potential for Tesla and its stock.
Back seat quarterbacking.. but they might want to strategically focus a little bit on profit though (show profit -> get added to S&P 500 -> more stable stock price).
Pay for a $5 Billion factory, and it cost you $0 in terms of profit.
A $5 Billion factory will cause $5 Billion of negative CASH FLOW. But it won't actually change "net profit" at all. Tesla is losing money at the operational level: their superchargers and high-end mall space is too expensive, and their margins are too thin.
On the asset sheets, consider what happens when you pay for a $5 Billion factory. You lose $5 Billion in cash, but you GAIN a $5 Billion factory. So +$5Billion factory - $5 Billion cash == $0 on the bottom line.
The goal isn't to turn a profit next year. The goal is to become a bigger company than Apple, to wipe out entire car companies in the process, and to change how we power the cars we drive.
Because there's a very good chance you go bankrupt in year 3, turning your $1.00 into $0.00 instead of $15.
> Being "profitable" is irrational and stupid. [...] Profitability is a very narrowminded view of how to run a company.
What a weird, weird thing to say. As if it were straight out of the Silicon Valley TV show.
Now you'll say that Amazon __could__ have turned a profit earlier than that. Which is true. For Tesla it is not, turning a profit isn't an option. The difference being that selling books and other things on the internet is relatively easy compared with manufacturing cars using an entirely new set of unproven technologies and techniques.
So if we use that model to think about Amazon overwriting retail, then Tesla would be looking to overwrite transportation. Given the difficulties of doing the latter I would expect Tesla to flounder around for another 10 years before it really starts to get going.
After that, if they get there (big if), the sky is the limit and the market is Teslas market. That's the point behind the "being profitable is irrational and stupid" comment. Penny wise, dollar stupid.
But as it has been pointed out ad infinitum, it's a big gamble. So far Tesla has delivered on product, they'll need to prove that they can deliver on operations for this thing to take off all the way.
Juries out, but I'm willing (and do) bet that they'll make it. Too many people (including banks and governments) want this to work.
It’s different than the scenarios parodied in Silicon Valley, where companies with no business model, who can’t be profitable with their product, posture in order to be acquired to the extent that their founders believe the posturing.
I'm familiar with the discounted cash flow model of valuing a company. You're missing the point: If they keep losing money, they need more investments. At some point, they won't get any more investments, because potential investors won't believe that the company will be profitable in the future.
> [...] it has a good chance of making a lot more money by continuing to invest in itself.
Only if they don't go bankrupt in the near future, which is a very real possibility. Then all this talk about growth and "investing in itself" will be useless – they will make zero money.
At the moment, Tesla seems to have no real trouble raising the kind of capital they need in order to maintain the level of growth they're experiencing. But it's going to take a lot more growth before they're on par with GM or Toyota or the like. And since that's the obvious goal, it's foolish to be "profitable".
Tesla's annual depreciation outpaces their capital spending, so they aren't even spending enough to maintain their current assets. Last year they missed their planned CapEx by something like $1 billion. Also not something a "growth" company does.
That's because they are (and have been) in a precarious financial condition for almost their entire history, only made worse by the recent acquisition of an insolvent solar company in order to bailout you and your family members financial stakes.
It took Amazon about 12 years to get to the same revenue/income balance...
There is very high operating leverage in Automotive manufacturing. Hence why this cycle continues forever:
Elon: That's it, we don't need to raise anymore outside capital!
9 months later: Insert equity/bond/convert raise here.
Before they ramped up their Model 3 production, they could have become profitable just manufacturing and selling Model S.
Instead they invested in a new model and its production lines.
If they need to become profitable at some point (because they run out of investors), it seems plausible that they could do that simply by producing and selling their existing models, and not come out with a new model for a while.
(I realize this hinges on a lot of assumption, like continued demand, stable margins etc., hence I don't think it's automatic that they will be profitable, but still plausible.)
By that measure, Tesla is about a third of the size of Ford & GM. (50Billion vs 150Billion)
Also 2020-21 would be the years where mass market car companies like Honda / Toyota might release their cars and my guess it would start with ~$25k range
> let's say ultimately getting like a twenty five thousand dollar car [...] if we work really hard we maybe could do that in three years [with time and scale]
It is common to think that a legacy automaker will just start producing EVs in large volumes.. but no one has yet and we've all waited far too long hoping that will. They've made announcements and grand proclamations for well over a decade but haven't produced anything in volume. Meanwhile there has been no end to the shade thrown at EVs.. not enough range, looks ugly, poor handling, causes fires, isn't built by a union worker (even though it is car made in the U.S.A. in 2019!!), waiting for hydrogen/fuel cells, etc.
If someone else can produce some great EVs, I will wholeheartedly cheer for them as well! Until then, please join in supporting what Tesla is doing and has achieved.
The Tesla Model 3 is heavier than the Cadillac CT5 and CTS. All are 5 seats. The Cadillac CTS has a 1.5" longer wheelbase than the Tesla Model 3. The definition of "small and midsize" seems to have been carefully chosen here.
Q1 is also consistently the weakest quarter for the overall car market.
Tesla is proving more robust than the common narrative.
This is a double-edged sword, since competition is good. Competitors also are unable to make the same profit margin as Tesla for now.
The EV credit system is unfair for domestic EV makers who have taken EVs seriously (GM and Tesla) and advantages foreign EV makers like VW group companies (who count as separate companies according to the tax credit but can use the same platform for their EVs).
I assume this issue is improving too.
The discovery I have made is that timing commutes away from rush hour does more to prevent accidents than anything else.