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When I was in university and had access to scientific papers, I would often read papers on AGW. I remember reading several times that IPCC models were conservative and the msot bullish models in their assessment reports hadn't predicted the rate at which the north pole is melting.



Currently the Arctic is sitting at about 2007 levels: https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234


Comparing two random years is one way to look at it. Another is to look at the trend: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/


All the trends start in the 70s, which was the coldest decade of the 20th century. That doesn't say much at all.


Doesn't seem to be that way according to the global temperature tab one click away.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/


https://youtu.be/8455KEDitpU you should watch this


Does that account for thickness? I could be wrong but I thought that was also a factor in ice extent: some previously permanent ice melted and came back thinner.

Also, 2007 had a much smaller extent than the recent average. Only 2012 was worse.


Looks like it's below the 2007 curve for the most part. It also seems like the 10 year averages seem to have a clearer trend than yearly averages.




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