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One thing to keep in mind is that even a random number generator can trivially turn a profit when the market is trending up. It's when the market is volatile or going down that you get a real test of how well a strategy works.

Which isn't to say that technical analysis is unfounded. And I do believe that there are opportunities that exist for individuals that haven't been arbitrated out of the market by the professional quants simply because they don't represent enough money to be interesting on an institutional scale. But it takes something like a bear market to really know for sure if you've found those opportunities, or if you're just riding a rising tide that lifts all boats.




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