- a Model 3 is cheaper to insure than a Camry (thus far, the opposite is true-- and it seems optimistic to attain for a car that costs so much more, has higher performance, and higher repair costs)
- the Model 3 will be cheaper to maintain by a massive factor (we'll see; there is maintenance avoided by having an electric car but also Tesla's part costs and availability has been poor)
- resale value will hold up exceptionally well for the Tesla
Basically, the most optimistic values have been taken for the Tesla in every field and the most pessimistic values have been taken for the Camry, and the Tesla manages a slight win.
The whole article and accompanying table is parrot food.
Compared to a Camry the Camry will always win. If I could get lower insurance I would have it already. Maintenance costs for that Camry are highly suspect too, oil changes aren't that frequent nor do they cost that much and most big items are 100k or such. Throw in the service cost for the TM3 are over priced as well. I mean, at most I replace air filters at 25k and wiper blades. I guess tires would make the number that high but it would probably be higher then.
Comparing to an equal price petrol car, yes a Tesla or any EV will save you money over the long run. Compared to something two thirds to half the price, it won't save you money.
Plus, fuel costs should roll in the newest revenue enhancer for states, having surcharges on tag renewals for EVs as a substitute for fuel taxes
However having just switched from a 2004 Forester XT to a new model 3 I can say that the maintenance was substantial. Over the life of the car it was over $100 per month and I spend $160 a month on gas. AWD, a big/heavy SUV, and a turbo doesn't do much for the MPG.
The looming spectre in the luxury/premium new/cpu/used car markets is almost everyone has switched to high compression 2 liter turbos... that seem not to last nearly as well as the motors they replace. Sure they do well on the EPA test, but less well in real world conditions. They also tend to have a surprising high chance of terrible failures shortly after the drive train warranty expires. Subaru has multiple generations issues with it's head gaskets (yes 2), BMW with the high pressure fuel pump, carbon build up, and plastic timing chain. I checked a bunch of forums from BMW, Toyota, Ford, and Subaru and it looked pretty scary.
One forum I read mentioned a sad story of a shortly after warranty engine destruction after taking it in to check on an engine light just the week before. Cost was around $20k for the new engine. That triggered 20 pages of similar sad stories. This was a few years ago and a month later BMW had a major change to it's CPO warranty which makes me think that it's not a particularly rare occurrence. The most common recommendation is when buying used to get an older car that still has a NA 3 liter turbo instead of buying a newer used car with the 2 liter turbo.
So I think a fairer comparison would be 10 year of electric car ownership vs ICE. After all nobody throws away a car after 3 years.
Yes, as cars get older they get less reliable. This is likely to be true of the Tesla, too.
The number is kinda baked into the real resale value, anyways. A good part of what subsequent buyers are willing to pay is based on their inferred operating costs.
One thing I would expand on is the resale value for Tesla. The EV technology is changing so rapidly that there may be groundbreaking changes or improvements in the 3-5 year span that would render a TM3's resale price useless. It's much more unlikely that the same will happen for a Camry, the threshold of innovation for gas-powered cars have been pushed much more closer to its limits than EVs.
I.E don’t buy it using money borrowed from someone else.
So I just use my included Tesla charger in a NEMA 10-30 (the older dryer standard) and get 24 miles of charger per hour. Plenty, it's rare that I drive for 5+ hours a day, even then in 10 hours (food + sleep) I can have another 240 miles or so. If I need more (very rare) I can use the supercharging network, on my longer drives I typically see several superchargers go by.
I'm not sure what the model 3 charge rate is in mph for these scenarios.
Based on total car maintenance costs over 10 years:
They think a Camry costs $4000 over 5 years to maintain, whereas Your Mechanic thinks it is $5200 over 10 years - something smells. Fix that, and the advantage goes away.
I think it is very unlikely the Model 3 costs less to maintain than a Camry over 10 years (projected). Toyota are insanely much better than any other manufacturer - I am sceptical a new manufacturer with a new model can jumpstart reliability figures like that. Are they including expected battery replacement costs?
For comparison I once rode in a prius with 400k miles, and it had had the engine replaced multiple times.
That's odd, and definitely not normal.
Firstly, the Prius was the least expensive model maintenance-wise in the link above.
Secondly, I have heard from multiple people that the Prius engine just keeps running because it doesn't get the same loads as a normal car (makes sense).
Finally, taxi drivers drive reliable vehicles that are cheap to maintain, and the Prius is the car of choice for taxi drivers where I am (and here that's categorically not a side-effect of other financial incentives).
I think he also said they didn't like the newer prius versions, I thought because they didn't have as much room in them.
I wonder how much is just the sheer value of the car rather than insurers considering them to be particularly risky?
While stating your argument you left this as the last one, as if it is the least significant one. In reality it is the most significant one and you should lead with it, otherwise you run the risk of sounding disingenuous.
>license for more than 9 years [...] when I was 19 and had just passed my test my insurance was £1200p.a.
I assume you did not adjust the £1200 value for 2019 according to inflation, GBP purchasing power, et cetera. Nine years is quite a long time for price changes. Have you tried getting a quote for a "sporty car" in the current year?
Ireland (so utterly dysfunctional insurance market) but as a person in my mid-30's with impeccable driving record but no NCB (hadn't owned a car for years) I pay ~€1550 for the cheapest possible insurance on a 10 year old Honda Jazz. It should be under half that with a year of no claims.
As my Prius is approaching ten years age, I'm going to retire it and get new primary car. I calculated that new Corolla Hybrid with best trim + gas for 5 years will cost roughly the same as SR+ with electricity (inc. 2 KEUR rebate).
Btw, currently I pay 300 EUR per month for gas (~1.5 per litre), while SR+ monthly loan payment starts from 450 EUR (with 5 KEUR down payment). Electricity is relatively cheap (and green!) in Finland, also insurancing a Tesla has no premium. It starts to look like a bargain!
We drive a lot, almost 50,000 km per year. Of course there are lot variables, but I'm pretty sure that gas and ICE car taxation won't get any cheaper. Not to forget that SR+ is definitely more fun daily driver.
I guess thats not even the end of the line since there probably are other costs like taxes, insurance and repairs?
I use several types of transportation every day (Bikes, Scooters, Mopeds, Buses, Trains, Cabs) and I pay less then 300 Euro a month for it all. And its much less hassle since I can just start wherever I am and never have to search for a parking space, walk to my car or deal with any maintenance.
I live in countryside, so there is no practical alternative transport options available. Moved from a city 5 years ago and have been happy. Family-sized housing in Helsinki costs way too much and public transportation works poorly (IMO). Of course, in the end it comes down to personal preference of life style.
Currently drive a plugin which has allowed me to drive with electric only to and from work and will absolutely never buy a ICE again, it is just too expensive to drive them here.
Typically the night time rate is much lower, but the price of energy itself is only 1/3rd of the whole bill, the grid company taking another 1/3 and the rest is for taxes, so that smoothes out the price difference.
I'm planning to install solar panels in the near future. The payback time is 7-15 years depending on the amount of DIY work.
You can choose to buy your electricity from anyone but you have to pay the local monopoly for the transfer. Electric transfer/infrastructure has been sold abroad by our very forward thinking smart politicians and thus that money is never seen again.
Both cost double that of electricity or more. So the total is around 13-17c/kWh.
Smart metering saves only a few cents per kWh.
These two rates have been going up really fast and will lead to a solar/wind revolution in short order.
That's the average energy price, and what typically pay if you have fixed pricing per kWh, but there is lot of variance hourly/seasonally. Sometimes in the night time the price of energy can be almost nothing (e.g. hydro power reverses overfilling), but of course you still have to pay for grid company + taxes. To take advantage of that, you need a "market price" plan with your energy company. E.g. I try to store the cheap night-time energy into water boiler + floor heating.
An electric car is very good match for cheap nigh-time energy, as you typically charge overnight.
Id like to see how a Model 3 is cheaper to insure as well... seems questionable at best. I'd have to get quotes to disprove it though.
In fact, right now I have an econocar that's almost 10 years old and I'm certain I've spent less than $4k in maintenance over that decade. I've gotten new tires twice (~$1,300), new battery (~300), brakes (~$400), oil changes (~$300), turn signal bulbs (~$10) and that's really all I can remember.
CA electric rates average 15.34c/KwH
Tesla gets 27 KwH per 100 miles
which comes out to 4.14$ per 100 miles for the Tesla
A Camry at 50mpg uses 2 gallons costing 7$ per 100 miles.
So, on a per elec/gas basic the comparison should be:
2250 vs 3804
And, if you live in the bay area, then your electric rates can easily be 18, or 19c/KwH nearly putting the TM3 on par with the camry.
Also, as other pointed out: in the long term, the camry will cost much much less on maintenance than a TM3. if those TM3 door handles go out, that's 1500$ each just for that.
a year or two ago KBHD said nearly every Youtuber who's ever reviewed a Tesla (with the exception of 2), has at some point had their Tesla's up on a flatbed truck.
I don't know if they've improved the reliability since then but I think Tesla still has a lot to prove in this category, especially considering how expensive they are to repair.
The model 3 was designed with much closer to a clean start over from what Telsa learned. Radically less parts, radically less cables (I think it's 10x less), and things that should be centralized (like the computers) are. In fact they have won some awards, look up the Tesla "superbottle".
I've talked to a many model 3 owners, am active on various Tesla forums, and there's a pretty lively slack channel where I work. Things do seem MUCH better with the 3 than the S, at least older S. It does seem like Tesla is updating the model S over time, but it's maddeningly hard to track exactly what those changes are.
In any case don't hold the S against the 3, it does seem like they improved quite a few things with it. Time will tell if they do similar with the Y, they at one point claimed they could do another 10x reduction in cabling.
$60 oil change x 20 = $1200. Everything else is the same or pricier for a Tesla.
The toyota maintenance schedule for the Camry specifies every 10,000 miles (16000km). Unless you: are towing, have a car-top carrier, carry heavy loads, drive less then 5 miles when cold, drive on dirt/dusty/muddy roads, drive on melted snow, have excessing idling/low speed drive, etc.
Also the Camry uses a somewhat unusual oil 0w-16, there is a more commonly available variety... but they recommend a full flush, replace the filter, etc when every you switch back to 0w-16.
If the oil filter truly couldn’t last, then there would be many more failures. Which would be payable by the manufacture (either through warranty or class action law suit).
Based on this simple analysis, I believe the manufacturer docs vs. a mechanic with no skin in the game who also makes money from frequent oil changes.
Again, hard to know. But when the manufacturers have something to lose from being wrong and random mechanic who sells oils changes doesn’t, it makes it easier to man vehicle maintenance.
All-in maintenance costs were in the neighborhood of $700 over five years.
In 5 years you may need to replace clutch etc.
No sure if EV needs any coolant replacements.
The experts say this is going to continue, and in another 2 or 3 years ev's will equal ice's in sticker price, and then continue to fall. That plus various other factors will lead to ev sales skyrocketing and ice sales plummeting. A lot of the ice manufacturers like VW and GM have realized this is coming, and so they are working hard to convert over to ev's.
1. How long would the batteries last on the Tesla?
2. Do they need to be serviced more often if you live in colder climates?
3. Wouldn't battery health affect resale value??
So given all this, how long do the original batteries last in California heart?
I was assuming Tesla saves more.