Hmm, some boffins with a model based in part on stuff like soil nitrogen levels claim that there was a mysterious gradual decline in population in Ireland right before the Vikings came ... versus contemporary chroniclers who claim there was a non-mysterious decline in population right after the Vikings came to Ireland. Which one should we believe?
Kind of reminds me of the "historians"[1] who claimed the German invasions of Rome were peaceful multicultural changes rather than the sacks of the place recorded both in the archaeological record, and by contemporary chroniclers.
[1] c.f. "The Fall of Rome: And the End of Civilization" by Ward Perkins.
Hmm I wonder how much the decision to arrive was influenced by the decline as orders of priority. Say in a simplified gamey heuristic:
1. If there are boats or coastal settlements around the island and decent canidates attempt trade to fulfill needs - it is lower risk and where the greatest speed and cargo volume may be obtained.
1a. If trading won't be sufficient and they appear weak enough to gamble raid - it might get you killed but greater riches. If you would starve anyway what do you have to lose? (That infamous practice while it may have saved them from harsh winters got their civilization effectivly after the profession of raiders - it would be sort of like calling all of England and their descendants pirates.)
2. If the land is decent and under or unsettled land to fulfill needs - it is slower than boats and has lower cargo capacity. Also less likely to find undefended farmland or similar assets.
Essentially if the population didn't decline they never would have bothered heading inland more as either boats and coast fulfilled their needs better or if in bad relations scared off as the type of place that would rob or kill them on sight.
Kind of reminds me of the "historians"[1] who claimed the German invasions of Rome were peaceful multicultural changes rather than the sacks of the place recorded both in the archaeological record, and by contemporary chroniclers.
[1] c.f. "The Fall of Rome: And the End of Civilization" by Ward Perkins.